| 1. |
- Parente, Stephen L., et al.
(författare)
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Income, education and democracy
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of economic growth (Boston). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1381-4338 .- 1573-7020. ; 27:2, s. 193-233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we argue that a potentially important mechanism by which modernization leads to democratization is a rise in de facto power as more of the population becomes educated. Analyzing a model in which the polity dictates the pace of modernization through its choice of public education expenditures, we first show that (i) an autocrat must eventually fund public education as long as the masses begin with some de facto power even though it lowers the income of the group he represents, and (ii) an autocrat never relinquishes power unless de facto power increases as the economy modernizes. We then present evidence that increases in education and de facto power have very often preceded the transitions of autocratic regimes to democratic ones.
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| 2. |
- Pronin, Mathias, 1985-
(författare)
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Essays in Macroeconomics and Political Economy
- 2019
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The Response of the Riksbank to House Prices in SwedenIn the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, an environment of historically low interest rates and extensive household indebtedness in the OECD countries have triggered a vivid debate on whether central banks should react to house-price fluctuations in their pursuit of monetary policy. In Sweden, a period of low policy rates and house-price inflation was halted when the central bank increased the interest rates in 2010. This study investigates whether the Riksbank reacted to house prices in the period from 1993 to 2013. Using Bayesian methods and quarterly data, I estimate a DSGE model with patient and impatient households, where the central bank reacts to house-price inflation. The results suggest that the Riksbank did respond to house prices during the sample period. The findings are robust and plausible from an economic perspective. Wealth Distribution under Heterogeneous PreferencesThe standard macroeconomic framework of uninsurable idiosyncratic income risk fails to generate key features of the aggregate wealth distribution. Although the assumptions of heterogeneity of either impatience rate or risk aversion are common in the literature, they do not reflect the evidence and common belief that both parameters are dispersed across the population. I extend the standard framework by allowing for heterogeneity in both impatience and risk aversion. The results suggest that this richer framework outperforms previous work in terms of matching actual properties of the wealth distribution. In particular, the model presented generates a greater concentration of wealth at the top of the distribution and a greater mass of poor households than models with preference heterogeneity in only one dimension. Political Budget Cycles and Dependence on Foreign Aid This study poses the question of whether countries with a higher share of foreign aid per GDP exhibit larger political budget cycles. Using data on a large sample of countries, I find a significant negative effect of aid dependency on the budget surplus in election years. The effect is quantitatively important and implies that on average, a 1% increase in foreign aid per GDP is associated with a 0.2 percentage point larger deficit in election years. The results are robust to the model specification, inclusion of control variables, and other political budget cycles' determining factors described in the recent literature.
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| 3. |
- Kilström, Matilda, 1986-
(författare)
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Households' Responses to Policy in Labor and Credit Markets
- 2018
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Household Debt and Monetary Policy: Revealing the Cash-Flow Channel We examine the effect of monetary policy on spending when households hold debt linked to short-term rates, such as adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs). Using registry-based data, which is broadly representative of Swedish households, we find substantial heterogeneity in consumption responses to changes in monetary policy. We find that consumption responds more strongly to changes in interest rates for households with high debt than for households with little or no debt. Moreover, households with ARMs appear to be more interest-rate sensitive than households with fixed-rate mortgages. Our results are consistent with hand-to-mouth behavior and an important transmission of monetary policy through the cash-flow channel.Should I Stay or Must I Go? Temporary Refugee Protection and Labor-Market Outcomes We study a Danish reform in 2002 that lowered the ex-ante probability of refugees receiving permanent residency by prolonging the time period before they were eligible to apply for such residency. Adherence to the new rules was entirely determined by the date of the asylum application and the reform was implemented retroactively. We formulate a simple search and matching model to derive predictions that can be tested using our data. Using registry based data on individuals in Denmark, we then study the effects on educational and labor-market outcomes and find that the reform significantly increased the enrollment in formal education, especially for females and low-skilled individuals. In terms of employment and earnings, the coefficients are in general negative but insignificant. Other outcomes of interest are also studied.Risk-sharing and Entrepreneurship We study the role of risk-sharing in facilitating innovation. Studying entrepreneurship and innovation entails modelling an occupational choice and an effort choice. Risk-sharing may increase the number of individuals who become entrepreneurs by limiting the downside risk. The effort of entrepreneurs may, however, be hampered by high risk-sharing if this limits the returns faced by successful entrepreneurs relative to unsuccessful entrepreneurs. We construct a theoretical model where risk-sharing may be private or public, i.e., provided through the welfare state by means of taxation. We show that the level of risk-sharing matters for the characteristics of entrepreneurs. Moreover, high taxes, which imply high equilibrium benefits paid out to entrepreneurs, encourage entrepreneurship but discourage effort.Portfolio and Housing Decisions in the Presence of Intergenerational Links There is ample support for the idea that parents matter for the housing market choices of their children. Despite this, our understanding of the effects of these intergenerational links remains limited. I set up a partial equilibrium overlapping generations model with intergenerational links and study housing and portfolio decisions. I use the model to characterize individual behavior, as well as behavioral responses to a change in borrowing conditions. In steady state, the main determinant of both children's and parents' behavior is parental wealth and stricter borrowing conditions have a limited effect. During a transition with positive house price growth, however, the difference between parents who are homeowners and renters (and between their children) is amplified and stricter borrowing conditions have a stronger impact on behavior.
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| 4. |
- Åkerman, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Oligarchies and Development in a Global Economy : A Tale of Two Elites
- 2016
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Ingår i: Economic Inquiry. - : Wiley. - 0095-2583 .- 1465-7295. ; 54:1, s. 229-246
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper studies how comparative advantage and the political elites' endowments shape long-run performance in economies with imperfect political institutions. The trade regime interacts with industrial policy and regulations on capital mobility in governing capital accumulation. In a capital-scarce economy, capitalist oligarchs striving for import substitution industrialization (ISI) initially shelter the economy from trade, while promoting industrial policies that promote total factor productivity growth in the manufacturing sector. This gradually shifts the comparative advantage toward manufacturing and renders the economy attractive to foreign investors. Allowing for trade and foreign capital inflows are thus complementary policies that spur growth in the capital oligarchy. By contrast, landed oligarchs in a capital-scarce economy favor openness to trade at an early stage of development, neglect industrial policies, and block foreign capital to maximize extractable rents. The policy mix causes the economy to stagnate. Consistent with the experiences of South Korea and Argentina in the postwar era, the model predicts that the success of ISI policies depends crucially on the conditions governing the incentives for capital accumulation. (JEL F10, F20, P40, P50, O10, O24)
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| 5. |
- Pronin, Mathias
(författare)
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The Response of the Riksbankto House Prices in Sweden
- 2015
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, an environment of historically low interest rates and extensive household indebtedness in the OECD countries have triggered a vivid debate on whether central banks should react to house price fluctuations in their pursuit of monetary policy. In Sweden, a period of low policy rates and house price inflation was halted when the central bank increased the interest rates in 2010. This paper studies whether the Riksbank reacted to house prices in 1993-2013. Using Bayesian methods and quarterly data, I estimate a DSGE model with patient and impatient households, where the central bank reacts to house price inflation. The results suggest that the Riksbank did respond to house prices during the sample period. The findings are robust and plausible from an economic point of view.
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| 6. |
- Åkerman, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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The global arms trade network 1950-2007
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of comparative economics (Print). - : Elsevier BV. - 0147-5967 .- 1095-7227. ; 42:3, s. 535-551
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Using SIPRI data on all international transfers of major conventional weapons 1950-2007, we study the relationship between differences in polity and arms trade. To study whether states tend to trade arms within their political vicinity we estimate gravity models of the likelihood of trade at the bilateral level and study the evolution of the global network over time. We find a stable negative relationship between differences in polity and the likelihood of arms trade for the duration of the Cold War, but not in recent years. In line with these results, the global arms trade network changes drastically over the sample period in several respects: it grows more dense, clustered and decentralized over time. The differences between the NATO and Warsaw Pact sub-networks that we find corroborate the common perception that the Warsaw Pact was more strongly centralized around the USSR than NATO around the UK, the US and France.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Bennmarker, Helge, et al.
(författare)
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TCO-ekonomer missförstår studien
- 2013
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Ingår i: Svenska Dagbladet. - Stockholm : Hb Svenska dagbladets AB & Co. - 1101-2412.
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 9. |
- Calmfors, Lars, 1948-, et al.
(författare)
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Pattern bargaining and wage leadership in a small open economy
- 2013
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Economics. - : Wiley. - 0347-0520 .- 1467-9442. ; 115:1, s. 109-140
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pattern bargaining with the tradables (manufacturing) sector as the wage leader is common in Europe. We question the conventional wisdom that such bargaining produces wage restraint. In our model, all forms of pattern bargaining give the same outcomes as uncoordinated bargaining under inflation targeting. Under a monetary union, wage leadership for the non-tradables sector is conducive to wage restraint, whereas wage leadership for the tradables sector is not. Comparison thinking might lead the follower to set the same wage as the leader. Such equilibria can arise when the leader sector is the smaller sector, and these can promote high employment.
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| 10. |
- Larsson Seim, Anna, et al.
(författare)
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Democracy as a Middle Ground : A Unified Theory of Development and Political Regimes
- 2013
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Ingår i: European Economic Review. - : Elsevier BV. - 0014-2921 .- 1873-572X. ; 64, s. 35-56
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Although many of the worst performing countries over the post-World War II period were autocracies, many of the best were likewise autocratic. At the same time, no long-lived autocracy currently is rich whereas every long-lived democracy is. This paper proposes a theory to account for these observations that rests on the ideas that autocrats are heterogeneous and that elites experience lower land rents with industrialization. In a model calibrated to Britain's development, we show that elites democratize society only after the economy has accumulated enough wealth, and that the democratization date depends importantly on the history of rulers and distribution of land.
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