| 1. |
- Englund, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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The Current Account, Supply Shocks, and Accomodative Fiscal Policy
- 1987
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
- The aim of the paper is to asses empirically the importance of different types of shocks in explaining the Swedish current account. We do this by first estimating an unrestricted vector autoregression system in these four variables: the real wage, the terms of trade, governmnet consumption, and the current accout. We then perform innovation accouting and impulse response studies based on a particular structural model that allows identification of the parameters of the contemporaneous relations between the variables. The model allows for labour-union determined wages, and government consumption is taken to be accomodative in response to private sector labour demand.A principal finding is that the forecast error variance in the current account is to a very limited extent (less than 20 per cent over a couple of years) explained by innovations to the wage, terms-of-trade, or government-consumption equations. This is in contrast with the "conventional wisdom" and also with the results for some of the other variables. For example, innovations in the wage equation explain less than half of the variance of the wage.
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| 2. |
- Jacobson, Tor, et al.
(författare)
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Are Real Wages and Unemployment Related?
- 1993
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
- In this paper we propose an alternative method for investigating the sources behind the behavior of real wages and unemployment. The statistical model we study is a certain structural error correction model, a so called common trends model, which has become popular in the empirical growth/business cycle literature. The system consists of real output, employment, unemployment and the product real wage and two exogenous stochastic variables, a tax wedge and a currency basket index. Based on quarterly Swedish data (1965-90) we find evidence supporting a short run but not a medium or long run relation.
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| 3. |
- Jacobson, Tor, et al.
(författare)
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Common Trends and Hysteresis in Unemployment
- 1994
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
- We examine the sources of labor market fluctuations in the Scandinavian countries using VAR models with common trends. Our primary concerns are the sources of hysteresis in unemployment and possible differences between the economies. A simple economic model is presented to motivate our identifying assumptions. We show how estimates of the theoretical parameters may be obtained from the estimated common trends coefficients. The empirical results suggest that (i) the only common source of hysteresis in the Scandinavian labor markets is shocks to wage setting (or, equivalently, equilibrium unemployment); (ii) transitory labor demand shocks, which are emphasized in the theoretical literature on hysteresis, do not seem to be empirically important.
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| 4. |
- Söderlind, Paul, et al.
(författare)
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Applied Cointegration Analysis in the Mirror of Macroeconomic Theory
- 1994
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
- Applied cointegration analysis has much to gain from strong links with economic theory. For example, the current generation of equilibrium macroeconomic models have simple predictions for cointegrating vectors. These models also suggest that important information about the economic structure can be found in the short run dynamics, which most cointegration studies disregard. Simulations of a stochastic business cycle model show that tests of cointegrating vectors, forecasts, and variance decompositions based on long run assumptions can be sharpened by imposing even very simple economic restrictions.
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| 5. |
- Vredin, Anders, et al.
(författare)
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Tests of the Neutrality of Money
- 1994
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
- To test structural hypotheses, like monetary neutrality, we need a structural model. In this paper we discuss two recent contributions to the VAR literature on long run neutrality. We argue that Fisher and Seater's (1993) analysis is as vulnerble to the Cooley-LeRoy critique as were the early VAR applications. The analysis in King and Watson (1992) is more careful about the identification problem and not subject to this critique. As an extension to the King-Watson analysis we show how cointegration restrictions can be used to shed additional light on long run neutrality within the context of a common trends model.
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