| 1. |
- Bakshi, Gurdip, et al.
(författare)
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Volatility of the Stochastic Discount Factor, and the Distinction between Risk-Neutral and Objective Probability Measures
- 2005
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper derives a measure that characterizes the distance between the risk-neutral and the objective probability measures for any candidate asset pricing model. We formally show that the distance metric is equal to the volatility of the stochastic discount factor. This theoretical result gives an alternative interpretation to the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds: they provide a lower bound for the distance between the objective and the risk-neutral probability measures. Our empirical application provides support for the notion that the crash of 1987 has widened the wedge between the risk-neutral and the objective probability measures.
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| 2. |
- Benos, Evangelos, et al.
(författare)
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Interactions among High-Frequency Traders
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Using unique transactions data for individual high-frequency trading (HFT) firms in the U.K. equity market, we examine the extent to which the trading activity of individual HFT firms is correlated with each other and the impact on price effciency. We find that HFT order flow, net positions, and total volume exhibit significantly higher commonality than those of a comparison group of investment banks. However, intraday HFT order flow commonality is associated with a permanent price impact, suggesting that commonality in HFT activity is information-based and so does not generally contribute to undue price pressure and price dislocations.
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| 3. |
- Farago, Adam, 1984, et al.
(författare)
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Compound Returns
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We provide a theoretical basis for understanding the properties of compound re-turns. At long horizons, multiplicative compounding induces extreme positive skewness into individual stock returns, an effect primarily driven by single-period volatility. As a consequence, most individual stocks perform very poorly. However, holding just a few stocks (instead of a single one) greatly improves the long-run prospects of an investment strategy, indicating that missing out on the “lucky few” winner stocks is not a great concern. We show analytically how this somewhat counterintuitive result arises from an interaction between compounding, diversification, and rebalancing that has seemingly not been previously noted.
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| 4. |
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 1975
(författare)
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Does the Black- Scholes formula work for electricity markets? A nonparametric approach
- 2003
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Despite the high volatilities recorded for electricity prices, there seems to be little demand for options on electricity. One reason for the disinterest in electricity options could arise from uncertainty about how to price these options. This study uses recent econometric advances to nonparametrically estimate correct prices for electricity options and compare these to the Black-Scholes prices. The main finding is that although the nonparametric estimates deviate significantly from the Black-Scholes prices, it would be difficult to find an alternative parametric model that performs better. Thus, from a practical viewpoint, the Black-Scholes prices appear to be the best available.
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| 5. |
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Efficiency in housing markets: Do home buyers know how to discount?
- 2006
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- We test for efficiency in the market for Swedish co-ops by examining the negative relationship between the sales price and the present value of future rents. If the co-op housing market is efficient, the present value of co-op rental payments due to underlying debt obligations of the cooperative should be fully reflected in the sales price. However, we find that, on average, a one hundred kronor increase in the present value of future rents only leads to a 45 to 65 kronor reduction in the sales price; co-ops with higher rents are thus relatively overpriced compared to those with lower rents. Our analysis indicates that pricing tends to be more efficient in areas with higher educated and wealthier buyers. By relying on cross-sectional relationships in the data, our results are less sensitive to transaction costs and other frictions than time-series tests of housing market efficiency.
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| 6. |
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 1975
(författare)
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Nord Pool: A Power Market Without Market Power
- 2000
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Regulatory reform in the Nordic electricity-supply markets has resulted in a single integrated Nordic electricity market. This paper performs an econometric study of market power in the spot market of Nord Pool, the joint Nordic power exchange. I use a dynamic extension of the Bresnahan-Lau model, and weekly data for the period from 1996 through April 1999. To my knowledge, this is the first study of power markets that is not able to reject the hypothesis of perfect competition. The most likely reason for this absence of market power is the low ownership concentration in generation in the integrated Nordic electricity market.
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| 7. |
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 1975
(författare)
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On the Predictability of Global Stock Returns
- 2005
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Stock return predictability is a central issue in empirical finance. Yet no comprehensive study of international data has been performed to test the predictive ability of lagged explanatory variables. In fact, most stylized facts are based on U.S. stock-market data. In this paper, I test for stock return predictability in the largest and most comprehensive data set analyzed so far, using four common forecasting variables: the dividend- and earnings-price ratios, the short interest rate, and the term spread. The data contain over 20,000 monthly observations from 40 international markets, including markets in 22 of the 24 OECD countries. I also develop new asymptotic results for long-run regressions with overlapping observations. I show that rather than using auto-correlation robust standard errors, the standard t-statistic can simply be divided by the square root of the forecasting horizon to correct for the effects of the overlap in the data. Further, when the regressors are persistent and endogenous, the long-run OLS estimator suffers from the same problems as does the short-run OLS estimator, and similar corrections and test procedures as those proposed by Campbell and Yogo (2003) for the short-run case should also be used in the long-run; again, the resulting test statistics should be scaled due to the overlap. The empirical analysis conducts time-series regressions for individual countries as well as pooled regressions. The results indicate that the short interest rate and the term spread are fairly robust predictors of stock returns in OECD countries. The predictive abilities of both the short rate and the term spread are short-run phenomena; in particular, there is only evidence of predictability at one and 12-month horizons. In contrast to the interest rate variables, no strong or consistent evidence of predictability is found when considering the earnings-and dividend-price ratios as predictors. Any evidence that is found is primarily seen at the long-run horizon of 60 months. Neither of these predictors yields any consistent predictive power for the OECD countries. The interest rate variables also have out-of-sample predictive power that is economically significant; the welfare gains to a log-utility investor who uses the predictive ability of these variables to make portfolio decisions are substantial.
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| 8. |
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 1975
(författare)
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Predictive regressions with panel data
- 2005
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper analyzes econometric inference in predictive regressions in a panel data setting. In a traditional time-series framework, estimation and testing are often made diffcult by the endogeneity and near persistence of many forecasting variables; tests of whether the dividend-price ratio predicts stock returns is a prototypical example. I show that, by pooling the data, these econometric issues can be dealt with more easily. When no individual intercepts are included in the pooled regression, the pooled estimator has an asymptotically normal distribution and standard tests can be performed. However, when fixed effects are included in the specification, a second order bias in the fixed effects estimator arises from the endogeneity and persistence of the regressors. A new estimator based on recursive demeaning is proposed and its asymptotic normality is derived; the procedure requires no knowledge of the degree of persistence in the regressors and thus sidesteps the main inferential problems in the time-series case. Since forecasting regressions are typically applied to financial or macroeconomic data, the traditional panel data assumption of cross-sectional independence is likely to be violated. New methods for dealing with common factors in the data are therefore also developed. The analytical results derived in the paper are supported by Monte Carlo evidence.
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| 9. |
- Hjalmarsson, Erik, 1975, et al.
(författare)
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Testing Return Predictability with the Dividend-Growth Equation: An Anatomy of the Dog
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The dividend-growth based test of return predictability, proposed by Cochrane [2008, Review of Financial Studies 21, 1533-1575], is similar to a likelihood-based test of the standard return-predictability model, treating the autoregressive parameter of the dividend-price ratio as known. In comparison to standard OLS-based inference, both tests achieve power gains from a strong use of the exact value pos- tulated for the autoregressive parameter. When compared to the likelihood-based test, there are no power advantages for the dividend-growth based test. In common implementations, with the autoregressive parameter set equal to the corresponding OLS estimate, Cochrane's test also suffers from severe size distortions.
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