| 1. |
- Björk, Jonas, et al.
(author)
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Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates
- 2019
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In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 34:11, s. 987-992
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The scientific debate following the initial formulation of the “bad luck” hypothesis in cancer development highlighted how measures based on analysis of variance are inappropriately used for risk communication. The notion of “explained” variance is not only used to quantify randomness, but also to quantify genetic and environmental contribution to disease in heritability coefficients. In this paper, we demonstrate why such quantifications are generally as problematic as bad luck estimates. We stress the differences in calculation and interpretation between the heritability coefficient and the population attributable fraction, the estimated fraction of all disease events that would not occur if an intervention could successfully prevent the excess genetic risk. We recommend using the population attributable fraction when communicating results regarding the genetic contribution to disease, as this measure is both more relevant from a public health perspective and easier to understand.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Carlsson, Sofia, et al.
(author)
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Late retirement is not associated with increased mortality, results based on all Swedish retirements 1991-2007
- 2012
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In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 27:6, s. 483-486
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In their recent paper based on German old-age pensioners, Kühntopf and Tivig [1] show that early retirement is associated with considerably higher mortality in men. This is in line with previous reports from British, Danish, US, German and Greek populations showing an increased mortality risk related to retirement, especially in the case of early retirement [2–6]. As pointed out by Kühntopf and Tivig, interpretation of these results is complicated, since a “Healthy worker selection effect” may be operating. To reduce this bias, they used information on credited periods of disease in the public insurance system [1]. Other strategies include adjustment for baseline medical problems [2, 6], using a time lag during follow up [5] or exclusion of subjects retiring for health reasons [3, 4]. It is however questionable, whether these strategies have been sufficient to eliminate the effect of health on retirement.
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| 4. |
- Fang, Fang, et al.
(author)
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis among cross-country skiers in Sweden.
- 2016
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In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 31:3, s. 247-253
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A highly increased risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been suggested among professional athletes. We aimed to examine whether long distance cross-country skiers have also a higher risk of ALS and whether the increased risk was modified by skiing performance. We followed 212,246 cross-country skiers in the Swedish Vasaloppet cohort and a random selection of 508,176 general Swedes not participating in the Vasaloppet during 1989-2010. The associations between cross-country skiing as well as skiing performance (i.e., type of race, finishing time and number of races) and the consequent risk of ALS were estimated through hazard ratios (HRs) derived from Cox model. During the study, 39 cases of ALS were ascertained among the skiers. The fastest skiers (100-150 % of winner time) had more than fourfold risk of ALS (HR 4.31, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.78-10.4), as compared to skiers that finished at >180 % of winner time. Skiers who participated >4 races during this period had also a higher risk (HR 3.13, 95 % CI 1.37-7.17) than those participated only one race. When compared to the non-skiers, the fastest skiers still had a higher risk (HR 2.08, 95 % CI 1.12-3.84), as skiers who had >4 races (HR 1.88, 95 % CI 1.05-3.35), but those finishing at >180 % of winner time had a lower risk (HR 0.46, 95 % CI 0.24-0.87). In conclusion, long distance cross-country skiing is associated with a higher risk of ALS, but only among the best skiers; recreational skiers appear to have a largely reduced risk.
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| 5. |
- Hansson, Jenny, et al.
(author)
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Use of snus and acute myocardial infarction: pooled analysis of eight prospective observational studies
- 2012
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In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7284 .- 0393-2990. ; 27:10, s. 771-779
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The use of snus (also referred to as Scandinavian or Swedish moist smokeless tobacco), which is common in Sweden and increasing elsewhere, is receiving increasing attention since considered a tobacco smoke "potential reduction exposure product". Snus delivers a high dose of nicotine with possible hemodynamic effects, but its impact on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality is uncertain. The aim of this study was to investigate whether snus use is associated with risk of and survival after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Data from eight prospective cohort studies set in Sweden was pooled and reanalysed. The relative risk of first time AMI and 28-day case-fatality was calculated for 130,361 men who never smoked. During 2,262,333 person-years of follow-up, 3,390 incident events of AMI were identified. Current snus use was not associated with risk of AMI (pooled multivariable hazard ratio 1.04, 95 % confidence interval 0.93 to 1.17). The short-term case fatality rate appeared increased in snus users (odds ratio 1.28, 95 % confidence interval 0.99 to 1.68). This study does not support any association between use of snus and development of AMI. Hence, toxic components other than nicotine appear implicated in the pathophysiology of smoking related ischemic heart disease. Case fatality after AMI is seemingly increased among snus users, but this relationship may be due to confounding by socioeconomic or life style factors.
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| 6. |
- Modig, Karin, et al.
(author)
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The Aging Population in Sweden – Can Declining Incidence Rates in MI, Stroke and Cancer Counterbalance the Future Demographic Challenges?
- 2012
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In: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Netherlands. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 27:2, s. 139-145
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It is often taken for granted that an ageing population will lead to an increased burden for the health care sector. However, for several diseases of big public health impact the rates have actually come down for a substantial period of time. In this study we investigate how much the incidence rates for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and cancer will have to decline in order to counterbalance future demographic changes (changes in population size and age structure) and compare these figures with observed historical trends. Information on incidence rates were obtained from the National Board of Health and Welfare and referred to the total Swedish population. Population projections were obtained from Statistics Sweden. We projected the number of MI events to increase 50–60% between 2010 and 2050. The decline in incidence rates that is required to keep the number of events constant over time is, on average, 1.2%/year for men and 0.9%/year for women, somewhat higher than the trend for the past 10 years. For stroke the corresponding figures were 1.3% (men) and 1% (women), well in line with historical trends. For cancer the results indicate an increasing number of events in the future. Population ageing is more important than population growth when projecting future number of MI, stroke and cancer events. The required changes in incidence rates in order to counterbalance the demographic changes are well in line with historical figures for stroke, almost in line regarding MI, but not in line regarding cancer. For diseases with age dependence similar to these diseases, a reduction of incidence rates in the order of 1–2% is sufficient to offset the challenges of the ageing population. These are changes that have been observed for several diseases indicating that the challenges posed by the ageing population may not be as severe as they may seem when considering the demographic component alone.
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