| 1. |
- Alkmark, Mårten, 1973, et al.
(författare)
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Induction of labour at 41 weeks or expectant management until 42 weeks: A systematic review and an individual participant data meta-analysis of randomised trials.
- 2020
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Ingår i: PLoS medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 17:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The risk of perinatal death and severe neonatal morbidity increases gradually after 41 weeks of pregnancy. Several randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have assessed if induction of labour (IOL) in uncomplicated pregnancies at 41 weeks will improve perinatal outcomes. We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis (IPD-MA) on this subject.We searched PubMed, Excerpta Medica dataBASE (Embase), The Cochrane Library, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), and PsycINFO on February 21, 2020 for RCTs comparing IOL at 41 weeks with expectant management until 42 weeks in women with uncomplicated pregnancies. Individual participant data (IPD) were sought from eligible RCTs. Primary outcome was a composite of severe adverse perinatal outcomes: mortality and severe neonatal morbidity. Additional outcomes included neonatal admission, mode of delivery, perineal lacerations, and postpartum haemorrhage. Prespecified subgroup analyses were conducted for parity (nulliparous/multiparous), maternal age (<35/≥35 years), and body mass index (BMI) (<30/≥30). Aggregate data meta-analysis (MA) was performed to include data from RCTs for which IPD was not available. From 89 full-text articles, we identified three eligible RCTs (n = 5,161), and two contributed with IPD (n = 4,561). Baseline characteristics were similar between the groups regarding age, parity, BMI, and higher level of education. IOL resulted overall in a decrease of severe adverse perinatal outcome (0.4% [10/2,281] versus 1.0% [23/2,280]; relative risk [RR] 0.43 [95% confidence interval [CI] 0.21 to 0.91], p-value 0.027, risk difference [RD] -57/10,000 [95% CI -106/10,000 to -8/10,000], I2 0%). The number needed to treat (NNT) was 175 (95% CI 94 to 1,267). Perinatal deaths occurred in one (<0.1%) versus eight (0.4%) pregnancies (Peto odds ratio [OR] 0.21 [95% CI 0.06 to 0.78], p-value 0.019, RD -31/10,000, [95% CI -56/10,000 to -5/10,000], I2 0%, NNT 326, [95% CI 177 to 2,014]) and admission to a neonatal care unit ≥4 days occurred in 1.1% (24/2,280) versus 1.9% (46/2,273), (RR 0.52 [95% CI 0.32 to 0.85], p-value 0.009, RD -97/10,000 [95% CI -169/10,000 to -26/10,000], I2 0%, NNT 103 [95% CI 59 to 385]). There was no difference in the rate of cesarean delivery (10.5% versus 10.7%; RR 0.98, [95% CI 0.83 to 1.16], p-value 0.81) nor in other important perinatal, delivery, and maternal outcomes. MA on aggregate data showed similar results. Prespecified subgroup analyses for the primary outcome showed a significant difference in the treatment effect (p = 0.01 for interaction) for parity, but not for maternal age or BMI. The risk of severe adverse perinatal outcome was decreased for nulliparous women in the IOL group (0.3% [4/1,219] versus 1.6% [20/1,264]; RR 0.20 [95% CI 0.07 to 0.60], p-value 0.004, RD -127/10,000, [95% CI -204/10,000 to -50/10,000], I2 0%, NNT 79 [95% CI 49 to 201]) but not for multiparous women (0.6% [6/1,219] versus 0.3% [3/1,264]; RR 1.59 [95% CI 0.15 to 17.30], p-value 0.35, RD 27/10,000, [95% CI -29/10,000 to 84/10,000], I2 55%). A limitation of this IPD-MA was the risk of overestimation of the effect on perinatal mortality due to early stopping of the largest included trial for safety reasons after the advice of the Data and Safety Monitoring Board. Furthermore, only two RCTs were eligible for the IPD-MA; thus, the possibility to assess severe adverse neonatal outcomes with few events was limited.In this study, we found that, overall, IOL at 41 weeks improved perinatal outcome compared with expectant management until 42 weeks without increasing the cesarean delivery rate. This benefit is shown only in nulliparous women, whereas for multiparous women, the incidence of mortality and morbidity was too low to demonstrate any effect. The magnitude of risk reduction of perinatal mortality remains uncertain. Women with pregnancies approaching 41 weeks should be informed on the risk differences according to parity so that they are able to make an informed choice for IOL at 41 weeks or expectant management until 42 weeks. Study Registration: PROSPERO CRD42020163174.
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| 2. |
- Axelsson, Kristian F, et al.
(författare)
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Risk of fracture in adults with type 2 diabetes in Sweden: A national cohort study
- 2023
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Ingår i: Plos Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 20:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Author summary Why was this study done? Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is considered a risk factor for fracture but the evidence regarding the impact of T2DM on fracture risk is conflicting.We sought to determine if patients with T2DM had increased fracture risk and if so, to identify T2DM-related risk factors. What did the researchers do and find? We used a national register covering nearly all adult patients with T2DM in Sweden to compare the risk of fracture between T2DM patients ( = 580,127) and population controls ( = 580,127) without T2DM.In general, the risk of fracture was only marginally increased (by 1% for major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and by 6% for hip fracture) for patients with T2DM compared to controls, but for patients with presence of risk factors, such as low BMI, long T2DM duration, insulin treatment, and/or low physical activity, the risk increase was more substantial (20% or higher) and potentially clinically relevant. What do these findings mean? Our findings suggest that T2DM per se should not be considered an important risk factor for fracture.Special consideration of the T2DM-related risk factors can be used to identify T2DM patients with a clinically relevant increased fracture risk.Further studies are needed to develop fracture risk calculators for different settings and populations for T2DM patients specifically. BackgroundType 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is considered a risk factor for fracture but the evidence regarding the impact of T2DM on fracture risk is conflicting. The objective of the study was to determine if patients with T2DM have increased fracture risk and if T2DM-related risk factors could be identified. Methods and findingsIn this national cohort study in Sweden, we investigated the risk of fracture in 580,127 T2DM patients, identified through the national diabetes register including from both primary care and hospitals, and an equal number of population-based controls without diabetes matched for age, sex, and county from 2007 to 2017. The mean age at entry was 66.7 years and 43.6% were women. During a median follow-up time of 6.6 (interquartile range (IQR) 3.1 to 9.8) years, patients with T2DM had a marginally but significantly increased risk of major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00 to 1.03)) and hip fracture (HR 1.06 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.08)) compared to controls, associations that were only minimally affected (HR 1.05 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.06) and HR 1.11 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.14), respectively) by multivariable adjustment (age, sex, marital status, and an additional 20 variables related to general morbidity, cardiovascular status, risk of falls, and fracture). In a multivariable-adjusted Cox model, the proportion of the risk for all fracture outcomes (Heller's R2) explained by T2DM was below 0.1%. Among the T2DM patients, important risk factors for fracture were a low BMI (<25 kg/m(2)), long diabetes duration (>= 15 years), insulin treatment, and low physical activity. In total, 55% of the T2DM patients had none of these risk factors and a significantly lower fracture risk than their respective controls. The relatively short mean duration of T2DM and lack of bone density data, constitute limitations of the analysis. ConclusionIn this study, we observed only a marginally increased fracture risk in T2DM, a condition that explained less than 0.1% of the fracture risk. Consideration of the herein identified T2DM-related risk factors could be used to stratify T2DM patients according to fracture risk.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Davies, J. I., et al.
(författare)
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Global surgery, obstetric, and anaesthesia indicator definitions and reporting: An Utstein consensus report
- 2021
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Ingår i: Plos Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 18:8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Indicators to evaluate progress towards timely access to safe surgical, anaesthesia, and obstetric (SAO) care were proposed in 2015 by the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. These aimed to capture access to surgery, surgical workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality rate, and catastrophic and impoverishing financial consequences of surgery. Despite being rapidly taken up by practitioners, data points from which to derive the indicators were not defined, limiting comparability across time or settings. We convened global experts to evaluate and explicitly define-for the first time-the indicators to improve comparability and support achievement of 2030 goals to improve access to safe affordable surgical and anaesthesia care globally. Methods and findings The Utstein process for developing and reporting guidelines through a consensus building process was followed. In-person discussions at a 2-day meeting were followed by an iterative process conducted by email and virtual group meetings until consensus was reached. The meeting was held between June 16 to 18, 2019; discussions continued until August 2020. Participants consisted of experts in surgery, anaesthesia, and obstetric care, data science, and health indicators from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Considering each of the 6 indicators in turn, we refined overarching descriptions and agreed upon data points needed for construction of each indicator at current time (basic data points), and as each evolves over 2 to 5 (intermediate) and >5 year (full) time frames. We removed one of the original 6 indicators (one of 2 financial risk protection indicators was eliminated) and refined descriptions and defined data points required to construct the 5 remaining indicators: geospatial access, workforce, surgical volume, perioperative mortality, and catastrophic expenditure. A strength of the process was the number of people from global institutes and multilateral agencies involved in the collection and reporting of global health metrics; a limitation was the limited number of participants from low- or middle-income countries-who only made up 21% of the total attendees. Conclusions To track global progress towards timely access to quality SAO care, these indicators-at the basic level-should be implemented universally as soon as possible. Intermediate and full indicator sets should be achieved by all countries over time. Meanwhile, these evolutions can assist in the short term in developing national surgical plans and collecting more detailed data for research studies.
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| 5. |
- Deschasaux, M., et al.
(författare)
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Nutritional quality of food as represented by the FSAm-NPS nutrient profiling system underlying the Nutri-Score label and cancer risk in Europe: Results from the EPIC prospective cohort study
- 2018
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Ingår i: Plos Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 15:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Helping consumers make healthier food choices is a key issue for the prevention of cancer and other diseases. In many countries, political authorities are considering the implementation of a simplified labelling system to reflect the nutritional quality of food products. The Nutri-Score, a five-colour nutrition label, is derived from the Nutrient Profiling System of the British Food Standards Agency (modified version) (FSAm-NPS). How the consumption of foods with high/low FSAm-NPS relates to cancer risk has been studied in national/regional cohorts but has not been characterized in diverse European populations. This prospective analysis included 471,495 adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC, 1992-2014, median follow-up: 15.3 y), among whom there were 49,794 incident cancer cases (main locations: breast, n = 12,063; prostate, n = 6,745; colon-rectum, n = 5,806). Usual food intakes were assessed with standardized country-specific diet assessment methods. The FSAm-NPS was calculated for each food/beverage using their 100-g content in energy, sugar, saturated fatty acid, sodium, fibres, proteins, and fruits/vegetables/legumes/nuts. The FSAm-NPS scores of all food items usually consumed by a participant were averaged to obtain the individual FSAm-NPS Dietary Index (DI) scores. Multi-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were computed. A higher FSAm-NPS DI score, reflecting a lower nutritional quality of the food consumed, was associated with a higher risk of total cancer (HRQ5 versus (Q1) = 1.07; 95% CI 1.03-1.10, P-trend < 0.001). Absolute cancer rates in those with high and low (quintiles 5 and 1) FSAm-NPS DI scores were 81.4 and 69.5 cases/10,000 person-years, respectively. Higher FSAm-NPS DI scores were specifically associated with higher risks of cancers of the colon-rectum, upper aerodigestive tract and stomach, lung for men, and liver and postmenopausal breast for women (all P < 0.05). The main study limitation is that it was based on an observational cohort using self-reported dietary data obtained through a single baseline food frequency questionnaire; thus, exposure misclassification and residual confounding cannot be ruled out. In this large multinational European cohort, the consumption of food products with a higher FSAm-NPS score (lower nutritional quality) was associated with a higher risk of cancer. This supports the relevance of the FSAm-NPS as underlying nutrient profiling system for front-of-pack nutrition labels, as well as for other public health nutritional measures.
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| 6. |
- Forgetta, V., et al.
(författare)
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Development of a polygenic risk score to improve screening for fracture risk: A genetic risk prediction study
- 2020
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Ingår i: PLoS medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 17:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since screening programs identify only a small proportion of the population as eligible for an intervention, genomic prediction of heritable risk factors could decrease the number needing to be screened by removing individuals at low genetic risk. We therefore tested whether a polygenic risk score for heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-can identify low-risk individuals who can safely be excluded from a fracture risk screening program. Methods and findings A polygenic risk score for SOS was trained and selected in 2 separate subsets of UK Biobank (comprising 341,449 and 5,335 individuals). The top-performing prediction model was termed "gSOS", and its utility in fracture risk screening was tested in 5 validation cohorts using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical guidelines (N= 10,522 eligible participants). All individuals were genome-wide genotyped and had measured fracture risk factors. Across the 5 cohorts, the average age ranged from 57 to 75 years, and 54% of studied individuals were women. The main outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity to correctly identify individuals requiring treatment with and without genetic prescreening. The reference standard was a bone mineral density (BMD)-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) score. The secondary outcomes were the proportions of the screened population requiring clinical-risk-factor-based FRAX (CRF-FRAX) screening and BMD-based FRAX (BMD-FRAX) screening. gSOS was strongly correlated with measured SOS (r(2)= 23.2%, 95% CI 22.7% to 23.7%). Without genetic prescreening, guideline recommendations achieved a sensitivity and specificity for correct treatment assignment of 99.6% and 97.1%, respectively, in the validation cohorts. However, 81% of the population required CRF-FRAX tests, and 37% required BMD-FRAX tests to achieve this accuracy. Using gSOS in prescreening and limiting further assessment to those with a low gSOS resulted in small changes to the sensitivity and specificity (93.4% and 98.5%, respectively), but the proportions of individuals requiring CRF-FRAX tests and BMD-FRAX tests were reduced by 37% and 41%, respectively. Study limitations include a reliance on cohorts of predominantly European ethnicity and use of a proxy of fracture risk. Conclusions Our results suggest that the use of a polygenic risk score in fracture risk screening could decrease the number of individuals requiring screening tests, including BMD measurement, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention. Author summaryWhy was this study done? Osteoporosis screening identifies only a small proportion of the screened population to be eligible for intervention. The prediction of heritable risk factors using polygenic risk scores could decrease the number of screened individuals by reassuring those with low genetic risk. We investigated whether the genetic prediction of heel quantitative ultrasound speed of sound (SOS)-a heritable risk factor for osteoporotic fracture-could be incorporated into an established screening guideline to identify individuals at low risk for osteoporosis. What did the researchers do and find? Using UK Biobank, we developed a polygenic risk score (gSOS) consisting of 21,717 genetic variants that was strongly correlated with SOS ( = 23.2%). Using the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group clinical assessment guidelines in 5 validation cohorts, we estimate that reassuring individuals with a high gSOS, rather than doing further assessments, could reduce the number of clinical-risk-factor-based Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) tests and bone-density-measurement-based FRAX tests by 37% and 41%, respectively, while maintaining a high sensitivity and specificity to identify individuals who should be recommended an intervention. What do these findings mean? We show that genetic pre-screening could reduce the number of screening tests needed to identify individuals at risk of osteoporotic fractures. Therefore, the potential exists to improve the efficiency of osteoporosis screening programs without large losses in sensitivity or specificity to identify individuals who should receive an intervention. Further translational studies are needed to test the clinical applications of this polygenic risk score; however, our work shows how such scores could be tested in the clinic.
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| 7. |
- Gao, Yaqing, et al.
(författare)
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Housing environment and early childhood development in sub-Saharan Africa: A cross-sectional analysis.
- 2021
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Ingår i: PLoS medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 18:4
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The influence of the safety and security of environments on early childhood development (ECD) has been under-explored. Although housing might be linked to ECD by affecting a child's health and a parent's ability to provide adequate care, only a few studies have examined this factor. We hypothesized that housing environment is associated with ECD in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).From 92,433 children aged 36 to 59 months who participated in Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) in 20 SSA countries, 88,271 were tested for cognitive and social-emotional development using the Early Childhood Development Index (ECDI) questionnaire and were thus included in this cross-sectional analysis. Children's mean age was 47.2 months, and 49.8% were girls. Children were considered developmentally on track in a certain domain if they failed no more than 1 ECDI item in that domain. In each country, we used conditional logistic regression models to estimate the association between improved housing (housing with finished building materials, improved drinking water, improved sanitation facilities, and sufficient living area) and children's cognitive and social-emotional development, accounting for contextual effects and socioeconomic factors. Estimates from each country were pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Subgroup analyses were conducted by the child's gender, maternal education, and household wealth quintiles. On-track cognitive development was associated with improved housing (odds ratio [OR] = 1.15, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.24, p < 0.001), improved drinking water (OR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.14, p = 0.046), improved sanitation facilities (OR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.28, p = 0.014), and sufficient living area (OR = 1.06, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.10, p = 0.018). On-track social-emotional development was associated with improved housing only in girls (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.25, p = 0.006). The main limitations of this study included the cross-sectional nature of the datasets and the use of the ECDI, which lacks sensitivity to measure ECD outcomes.In this study, we observed that improved housing was associated with on-track cognitive development and with on-track social-emotional development in girls. These findings suggest that housing improvement in SSA may be associated not only with benefits for children's physical health but also with broader aspects of healthy child development.
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| 8. |
- KC, Ashish, 1982, et al.
(författare)
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Effect of a scaled-up neonatal resuscitation quality improvement package on intrapartum-related mortality in Nepal: A stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial.
- 2019
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Ingår i: PLoS medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 16:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Improving quality of intrapartum care will reduce intrapartum stillbirth and neonatal mortality, especially in resource-poor settings. Basic neonatal resuscitation can reduce intrapartum stillbirth and early neonatal mortality, if delivered in a high-quality health system, but there is a dearth of evidence on how to scale up such evidence-based interventions. We evaluated the scaling up of a quality improvement (QI) package for neonatal resuscitation on intrapartum-related mortality (intrapartum stillbirth and first day mortality) at hospitals in Nepal.We conducted a stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial in 12 hospitals over a period of 18 months from April 14, 2017, to October 17, 2018. The hospitals were assigned to one of four wedges through random allocation. The QI package was implemented in a stepped-wedge manner with a delay of three months for each step. The QI package included improving hospital leadership on intrapartum care, building health workers' competency on neonatal resuscitation, and continuous facilitated QI processes in clinical units. An independent data collection system was set up at each hospital to gather data on mortality through patient case note review and demographic characteristics of women using semi-structured exit interviews. The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) and multivariate logistic regression were used for analyses. During this study period, a total of 89,014 women-infant pairs were enrolled. The mean age of the mother in the study period was 24.0 ± 4.3 years, with 54.9% from disadvantaged ethnic groups and 4.0% of them illiterate. Of the total birth cohort, 54.4% were boys, 16.7% had gestational age less than 37 weeks, and 17.1% had birth weight less than 2,500 grams. The incidence of intrapartum-related mortality was 11.0 per 1,000 births during the control period and 8.0 per 1,000 births during the intervention period (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.79; 95% CI, 0.69-0.92; p = 0.002; intra-cluster correlation coefficient [ICC], 0.0286). The incidence of early neonatal mortality was 12.7 per 1,000 live births during the control period and 10.1 per 1,000 live births during the intervention period (aOR, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.78-1.02; p = 0.09; ICC, 0.1538). The use of bag-and-mask ventilation for babies with low Apgar score (<7 at 1 minute) increased from 3.2% in the control period to 4.0% in the intervention period (aOR, 1.52; 95% CI, 1.32-1.77, p = 0.003). There were two major limitations to the study; although a large sample of women-infant pairs were enrolled in the study, the clustering reduced the power of the study. Secondly, the study was not sufficiently powered to detect reduction in early neonatal mortality with the number of clusters provided.These results suggest scaled-up implementation of a QI package for neonatal resuscitation can reduce intrapartum-related mortality and improve clinical care. The QI intervention package is likely to be effective in similar settings. More implementation research is required to assess the sustainability of QI interventions and quality of care.ISRCTN30829654.
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| 9. |
- Kilpeläinen, Tuomas O, et al.
(författare)
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Physical activity attenuates the influence of FTO variants on obesity risk: a meta-analysis of 218,166 adults and 19,268 children.
- 2011
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Ingår i: PLoS medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 8:11
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The FTO gene harbors the strongest known susceptibility locus for obesity. While many individual studies have suggested that physical activity (PA) may attenuate the effect of FTO on obesity risk, other studies have not been able to confirm this interaction. To confirm or refute unambiguously whether PA attenuates the association of FTO with obesity risk, we meta-analyzed data from 45 studies of adults (n = 218,166) and nine studies of children and adolescents (n = 19,268). METHODS AND FINDINGS: All studies identified to have data on the FTO rs9939609 variant (or any proxy [r(2)>0.8]) and PA were invited to participate, regardless of ethnicity or age of the participants. PA was standardized by categorizing it into a dichotomous variable (physically inactive versus active) in each study. Overall, 25% of adults and 13% of children were categorized as inactive. Interaction analyses were performed within each study by including the FTO×PA interaction term in an additive model, adjusting for age and sex. Subsequently, random effects meta-analysis was used to pool the interaction terms. In adults, the minor (A-) allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity by 1.23-fold/allele (95% CI 1.20-1.26), but PA attenuated this effect (p(interaction) = 0.001). More specifically, the minor allele of rs9939609 increased the odds of obesity less in the physically active group (odds ratio = 1.22/allele, 95% CI 1.19-1.25) than in the inactive group (odds ratio = 1.30/allele, 95% CI 1.24-1.36). No such interaction was found in children and adolescents. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the FTO risk allele with the odds of obesity is attenuated by 27% in physically active adults, highlighting the importance of PA in particular in those genetically predisposed to obesity.
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| 10. |
- Kloprogge, F., et al.
(författare)
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Artemether-lumefantrine dosing for malaria treatment in young children and pregnant women: A pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic meta-analysis
- 2018
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Ingår i: Plos Medicine. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1549-1676 .- 1549-1277. ; 15:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The fixed dose combination of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) is the most widely used treatment for uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Relatively lower cure rates and lumefantrine levels have been reported in young children and in pregnant women during their second and third trimester. The aim of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of lumefantrine and the pharmacokinetic properties of its metabolite, desbutyl-lumefantrine, in order to inform optimal dosing regimens in all patient populations. A search in PubMed, Embase, ClinicalTrials. gov, Google Scholar, conference proceedings, and the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) pharmacology database identified 31 relevant clinical studies published between 1 January 1990 and 31 December 2012, with 4,546 patients in whom lumefantrine concentrations were measured. Under the auspices of WWARN, relevant individual concentration-time data, clinical covariates, and outcome data from 4,122 patients were made available and pooled for the meta-analysis. The developed lumefantrine population pharmacokinetic model was used for dose optimisation through in silico simulations. Venous plasma lumefantrine concentrations 7 days after starting standard AL treatment were 24.2% and 13.4% lower in children weighing < 15 kg and 15-25 kg, respectively, and 20.2% lower in pregnant women compared with non-pregnant adults. Lumefantrine exposure decreased with increasing pre-treatment parasitaemia, and the dose limitation on absorption of lumefantrine was substantial. Simulations using the lumefantrine pharmacokinetic model suggest that, in young children and pregnant women beyond the first trimester, lengthening the dose regimen (twice daily for 5 days) and, to a lesser extent, intensifying the frequency of dosing (3 times daily for 3 days) would be more efficacious than using higher individual doses in the current standard treatment regimen (twice daily for 3 days). The model was developed using venous plasma data from patients receiving intact tablets with fat, and evaluations of alternative dosing regimens were consequently only representative for venous plasma after administration of intact tablets with fat. The absence of artemether-dihydroartemisinin data limited the prediction of parasite killing rates and recrudescent infections. Thus, the suggested optimised dosing schedule was based on the pharmacokinetic endpoint of lumefantrine plasma exposure at day 7. Our findings suggest that revised AL dosing regimens for young children and pregnant women would improve drug exposure but would require longer or more complex schedules. These dosing regimens should be evaluated in prospective clinical studies to determine whether they would improve cure rates, demonstrate adequate safety, and thereby prolong the useful therapeutic life of this valuable antimalarial treatment.
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