| 1. |
- Cai, Z., et al.
(författare)
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Amplified wintertime Barents Sea warming linked to intensified Barents oscillation
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In recent decades, the Barents Sea has warmed more than twice as fast as the rest of the Arctic in winter, but the exact causes behind this amplified warming remain unclear. In this study, we quantify the wintertime Barents Sea warming (BSW, for near-surface air temperature) with an average linear trend of 1.74 °C decade-1 and an interdecadal change around 2003 based on a surface energy budget analysis using the ERA5 reanalysis dataset from 1979-2019. Our analysis suggests that the interdecadal change in the wintertime near-surface air temperature is dominated by enhanced clear-sky downward longwave radiation (CDLW) associated with increased total column water vapor. Furthermore, it is found that a mode of atmospheric variability over the North Atlantic region known as the Barents oscillation (BO) strongly contributed to the BSW with a stepwise jump in 2003. Since 2003, the BO turned into a strengthened and positive phase, characteristic of anomalous high pressure over the North Atlantic and South of the Barents Sea, which promoted two branches of heat and moisture transport from southern Greenland along the Norwegian Sea and from the Eurasian continent to the Barents Sea. This enhanced the water vapor convergence over the Barents Sea, resulting in BSW through enhanced CDLW. Our results highlight the atmospheric circulation related to the BO as an emerging driver of the wintertime BSW through enhanced meridional atmospheric heat and moisture transport over the North Atlantic Ocean.
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| 2. |
- Lu, Zhengyao, et al.
(författare)
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Natural decadal variability of global vegetation growth in relation to major decadal climate modes
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326 .- 1748-9318. ; 18:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The ongoing climate change can modulate the behavior of global vegetation and influence the terrestrial biosphere carbon sink. Past observation-based studies have mainly focused on the linear trend or interannual variability of the vegetation greenness, but could not explicitly deal with the effect of natural decadal variability due to the short length of observations. Here we put the variabilities revealed by remote sensing-based global leaf area index (LAI) from 1982 to 2015 into a long-term perspective with the help of ensemble Earth system model simulations of the historical period 1850-2014, with a focus on the low-frequency variability in the global LAI during the growing season. Robust decadal variability in the observed and modelled LAI was revealed across global terrestrial ecosystems, and it became stronger toward higher latitudes, accounting for over 50% of the total variability north of 40 degrees N. The linkage of LAI decadal variability to major natural decadal climate modes, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation decadal variability (ENSO-d), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), was analyzed. ENSO-d affects LAI by altering precipitation over large parts of tropical land. The PDO exerts opposite impacts on LAI in the tropics and extra-tropics due to the compensation between the effects of temperature and growing season length. The AMO effects are mainly associated with anomalous precipitation in North America and Europe but are mixed with long-term climate change impacts due to the coincident phase shift of the AMO which also induces North Atlantic basin warming. Our results suggest that the natural decadal variability of LAI can be largely explained by these decadal climate modes (on average 20% of the variance, comparable to linear changes, and over 40% in some ecosystems) which also can be potentially important in inducing the greening of the Earth of the past decades.
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| 3. |
- Vowles, Tage, et al.
(författare)
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Contrasting impacts of reindeer grazing in two tundra grasslands
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 12:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Plant communities in Arctic and alpine areas are changing due to higher temperatures and longer vegetation periods and it is uncertain how this will affect plant-herbivore dynamics. For instance, relatively fast-growing, deciduous shrub species that are the most responsive to warming may also be the most targeted by herbivores such as reindeer, giving less palatable evergreen shrubs the chance to expand. Using herbivore exclosures, we have studied how two grasslands with contrasting nutrient and moisture regimes, a dry, nutrient-poor alpine grass heath and a wet, productive low herb meadow, changed between 1995 and 2012, in grazed and ungrazed conditions. At the grass heath, evergreen low shrub abundance had more than doubled, regardless of grazer treatment, whereas at the low herb meadow, evergreen shrubs had increased only outside exclosures while deciduous tall shrubs and forbs were significantly more abundant inside exclosures. Deciduous tall shrubs were also significantly taller in exclosures. These contrasting findings suggest that the impact of herbivores is to a great deal determined by their influence on competitive interactions between plant species, and therefore depends on the underlying composition of the plant community. Consequently, as the balance in these competitive interactions is shifting due to climate warming, we conclude that the potential of herbivory to influence this balance is considerable yet highly site dependent.
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| 4. |
- Deng, K., et al.
(författare)
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More frequent summer heat waves in southwestern China linked to the recent declining of Arctic sea ice
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Southwestern China (SWC) has suffered from increasing frequency of heat wave (HW) in recent summers. While the local drought-HW connection is one obvious mechanism for this change, remote controls remain to be explored. Based on ERA-5 reanalysis, it is found that the SWC summer HWs are significantly correlated with sea-ice losses in the Barents Sea, Kara Sea and the Arctic pole. The reduction of Arctic sea ice can cause low pressure anomalies over the polar region due to increased heat-flux exchanges at the sea-air interface, which subsequently triggers southeastward Rossby wave trains propagating from northern Europe to East Asia that induce anomalous anticyclone over SWC. As a result, the North Pacific subtropical high extends westward, accompanied by divergent winds, decreased cloud cover and increased insolation in SWC, which leads to above-normal air temperatures there. In addition, the East Asian westerly jet stream is shifted northward, which enhances (reduces) the moisture convergence in North China (SWC), resulting in prominently drier soil in SWC. Therefore, the sea ice - forced changes in atmospheric circulation and surface conditions favor the occurrences of SWC summer HWs. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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| 5. |
- Pei, Lin, et al.
(författare)
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Climate variability or anthropogenic emissions: which caused Beijing Haze?
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- © 2020 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd. Beijing Haze has been phenomenal, especially for winter, and widely considered a result of the increasing anthropogenic emissions of atmospheric pollutants in the region. Since 2013, the pollutant emissions have been reduced with the help of a series of emission-control actions. However, severe haze events still occurred frequently in Beijing in recent winters, e.g., those of 2015 and 2016, implying that other factors such as meteorological conditions and interannual climate variability have also played an important role in forming the haze. Based on homogenized station observations, atmospheric circulation reanalysis and anthropogenic emissions data for the period 1980-2017, this paper attempts to quantify the relative importance of anthropogenic emissions and climatic conditions to the frequency and intensity of Beijing Haze in winter. It is found that the frequency (number) of hazy days exhibits large interannual variability and little trend, and its variations were mainly controlled by climate variability, with a correlation coefficient of 0.77. On the other hand, the intensity of haze displays strong interannual variability and a significant increasing trend during 1980-2012 and a notable decreasing trend during 2012-2017. The multiple linear regression model suggests that about half of the total variance of the haze intensity is explained by climate variability (mainly for interannual variations), and another half by the changing emissions (mainly for the trends).
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| 6. |
- Qi, W., et al.
(författare)
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Economic growth dominates rising potential flood risk in the Yangtze River and benefits of raising dikes from 1991 to 2015
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Flooding in the Yangtze River Basin could severely damage socio-economic development, river ecosystems, food security, hydropower production and transportation in China. The Yangtze River Basin accounts for approximately 30% of China's gross domestic product (GDP) and is an engine for the country's rapid economic growth. One commonly held belief is that climate change has intensified extreme flood events, leading to increasing economic damage in the Yangtze River. Here, we quantitatively attributed economic exposure to climate change (i.e. climate-induced changes in weather-related events) and GDP growth, and assessed benefits, i.e. the reduction in economic exposure, from flood defence dikes of varying heights. To do this, we developed a framework by combing a large scale hydrological model, a hydraulic model, and long-term GDP data. We find that climate-induced changes in flood inundation area and resulted economic exposure were decreasing overall, whereas GDP growth drove the increases of potential economic exposure to floods. We also reveal that the basin average flood defence dikes should be at least approximately 3.5 m high to achieve an about ten-year average flood occurrence. Our results have significant policy and socioeconomic development implications. © 2022 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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| 7. |
- Smith, A., et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for the effectiveness of nature-based solutions to water issues in Africa
- 2021
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 16:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is increasing global interest in employing nature-based solutions, such as reforestation and wetland restoration, to help reduce water risks to economies and society, including water pollution, floods, droughts and water scarcity, that are likely to become worse under future climates. Africa is exposed to many such water risks. Nature-based solutions for adaptation should be designed to benefit biodiversity and can also provide multiple co-benefits, such as carbon sequestration. A systematic review of over 10 000 publications revealed 150 containing 492 quantitative case studies related to the effectiveness of nature-based solutions for downstream water quantity and water quality (including sediment load) in Africa. The solutions assessed included landscape-scale interventions and patterns (forests and natural wetlands) and site-specific interventions (constructed wetlands and urban interventions e.g. soakaways). Consistent evidence was found that nature-based solutions can improve water quality. In contrast, evidence of their effectiveness for improving downstream water resource quantity was inconsistent, with most case studies showing a decline in water yield where forests (particularly plantations of non-native species) and wetlands are present. The evidence further suggests that restoration of forests and floodplain wetlands can reduce flood risk, and their conservation can prevent future increases in risk; in contrast, this is not the case for headwater wetlands. Potential trade-offs identified include nature-based solutions reducing flood risk and pollution, whilst decreasing downstream water resource quantity. The evidence provides a scientific underpinning for policy and planning for nature-based solutions to water-related risks in Africa, though implementation will require local knowledge. © 2021 The Author(s). Published by IOP Publishing Ltd.
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| 8. |
- Vuorinen, Katariina E.M., et al.
(författare)
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Growth rings show limited evidence for ungulates' potential to suppress shrubs across the Arctic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming has pronounced effects on tundra vegetation, and rising mean temperatures increase plant growth potential across the Arctic biome. Herbivores may counteract the warming impacts by reducing plant growth, but the strength of this effect may depend on prevailing regional climatic conditions. To study how ungulates interact with temperature to influence growth of tundra shrubs across the Arctic tundra biome, we assembled dendroecological data from 20 sites, comprising 1153 individual shrubs and 223 63 annual growth rings. Evidence for ungulates suppressing shrub radial growth was only observed at intermediate summer temperatures (6.5 °C-9 °C), and even at these temperatures the effect was not strong. Multiple factors, including forage preferences and landscape use by the ungulates, and favourable climatic conditions enabling effective compensatory growth of shrubs, may weaken the effects of ungulates on shrubs, possibly explaining the weakness of observed ungulate effects. Earlier local studies have shown that ungulates may counteract the impacts of warming on tundra shrub growth, but we demonstrate that ungulates' potential to suppress shrub radial growth is not always evident, and may be limited to certain climatic conditions.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Fang, Keyan, et al.
(författare)
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Synchronous multi-decadal climate variability of the whole Pacific areas revealed in tree rings since 1567
- 2018
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 13:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Oceanic and atmospheric patterns play a crucial role on modulating climate variability from interannual to multi-decadal timescales by, causing large-scale co-varying climate changes. The brevity of the existing instrumental records hinders the ability to recognize climate patterns before the industrial era, which can be alleviated by using proxies. Unfortunately, proxy based reconstructions of oceanic and atmospheric modes of the past millennia often have modest agreements with each other before the instrumental period, raising questions about the robustness of the reconstructions. To ensure the stability of climate signals in proxy data through time, we first identified tree-ring datasets from distant regions containing coherent variations in Asia and North America, and then interpreted their climate information. We found the multi-decadal covarying climate patterns of the middle and high latitudinal regions around the northern Pacific Ocean agreed quite well with the climate reconstructions of the tropical and southern Pacific areas. This indicates a synchronous variability at multi-decadal timescale of the past 430 years for the entire Pacific Ocean. This pattern is closely linked to the dominant mode of the Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) after removing the warming trend. This Pacific multi-decadal SST variability resembles the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO).
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