| 1. |
- Soultan, Alaaeldin, et al.
(författare)
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The future distribution of wetland birds breeding in Europe validated against observed changes in distribution
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wetland bird species have been declining in population size worldwide as climate warming and land-use change affect their suitable habitats. We used species distribution models (SDMs) to predict changes in range dynamics for 64 non-passerine wetland birds breeding in Europe, including range size, position of centroid, and margins. We fitted the SDMs with data collected for the first European Breeding Bird Atlas and climate and land-use data to predict distributional changes over a century (the 1970s-2070s). The predicted annual changes were then compared to observed annual changes in range size and range centroid over a time period of 30 years using data from the second European Breeding Bird Atlas. Our models successfully predicted ca. 75% of the 64 bird species to contract their breeding range in the future, while the remaining species (mostly southerly breeding species) were predicted to expand their breeding ranges northward. The northern margins of southerly species and southern margins of northerly species, both, predicted to shift northward. Predicted changes in range size and shifts in range centroids were broadly positively associated with the observed changes, although some species deviated markedly from the predictions. The predicted average shift in core distributions was ca. 5 km yr-1 towards the north (5% northeast, 45% north, and 40% northwest), compared to a slower observed average shift of ca. 3.9 km yr-1. Predicted changes in range centroids were generally larger than observed changes, which suggests that bird distribution changes may lag behind environmental changes leading to 'climate debt'. We suggest that predictions of SDMs should be viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative outcomes, indicating that care should be taken concerning single species. Still, our results highlight the urgent need for management actions such as wetland creation and restoration to improve wetland birds' resilience to the expected environmental changes in the future.
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| 2. |
- Blennow, Kristina
(författare)
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Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
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| 3. |
- Vuorinen, Katariina E.M., et al.
(författare)
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Growth rings show limited evidence for ungulates' potential to suppress shrubs across the Arctic
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 17:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Global warming has pronounced effects on tundra vegetation, and rising mean temperatures increase plant growth potential across the Arctic biome. Herbivores may counteract the warming impacts by reducing plant growth, but the strength of this effect may depend on prevailing regional climatic conditions. To study how ungulates interact with temperature to influence growth of tundra shrubs across the Arctic tundra biome, we assembled dendroecological data from 20 sites, comprising 1153 individual shrubs and 223 63 annual growth rings. Evidence for ungulates suppressing shrub radial growth was only observed at intermediate summer temperatures (6.5 °C-9 °C), and even at these temperatures the effect was not strong. Multiple factors, including forage preferences and landscape use by the ungulates, and favourable climatic conditions enabling effective compensatory growth of shrubs, may weaken the effects of ungulates on shrubs, possibly explaining the weakness of observed ungulate effects. Earlier local studies have shown that ungulates may counteract the impacts of warming on tundra shrub growth, but we demonstrate that ungulates' potential to suppress shrub radial growth is not always evident, and may be limited to certain climatic conditions.
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| 4. |
- Blennow, Kristina, et al.
(författare)
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The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation : implications for communications with European forest professionals
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in 10 countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the 'blocked belief' effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of "tipping point" behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.
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| 5. |
- Droste, Nils, et al.
(författare)
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Soil carbon insures arable crop production against increasing adverse weather due to climate change
- 2020
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intensification of arable crop production degrades soil health and production potential through loss of soil organic carbon. This, potentially, reduces agriculture's resilience to climate change and thus food security. Furthermore, the expected increase in frequency of adverse and extreme weather events due to climate change are likely to affect crop yields differently, depending on when in the growing season they occur. We show that soil carbon provides farmers with a natural insurance against climate change through a gain in yield stability and more resilient production. To do this, we combined yield observations from 12 sites and 54 years of Swedish long-term agricultural experiments with historical weather data. To account for heterogenous climate effects, we partitioned the growing season into four representative phases for two major cereal crops. Thereby, we provide evidence that higher soil carbon increases yield gains from favourable conditions and reduces yield losses due to adverse weather events and how this occurs over different stages of the growing season. However, agricultural management practices that restore the soil carbon stock, thus contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation, usually come at the cost of foregone yield for the farmer in the short term. To halt soil degradation and make arable crop production more resilient to climate change, we need agricultural policies that address the public benefits of soil conservation and restoration.
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| 6. |
- Khodaei, Behshid, et al.
(författare)
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Substantial carbon sequestration by peatlands in temperate areas revealed by InSAR
- 2023
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 18:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Peatlands are unique ecosystems that contain massive amounts of carbon. These ecosystems are incredibly vulnerable to human disturbance and climate change. This may cause the peatland carbon sink to shift to a carbon source. A change in the carbon storage of peatlands may result in surface deformation. This research uses the interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique to measure the deformation of the peatland's surface in south Sweden in response to the seasonal and extreme weather conditions in recent years, including the unprecedented severe drought in the summer of 2018. The deformation map of the study area is generated through a time-series analysis of InSAR from June 2017 to November 2020. Monitoring the peatland areas in this region is very important as agricultural and human activities have already caused many peatlands to disappear. This further emphasizes the importance of preserving the remaining peat sites in this region. Based on the InSAR results, a method for calculating the carbon flux of the peat areas is proposed, which can be utilized as a regular monitoring approach for other remote areas. Despite the severe drought in the summer of 2018, our findings reveal a significant uplift in most of the investigated peat areas during the study period. Based on our estimations, 86% of the peatlands in the study area experienced an uplift corresponding to about 47 000 tons of carbon uptake per year. In comparison, the remaining 14% showed either subsidence or stable conditions corresponding to about 2300 tons of carbon emission per year during the study period. This emphasizes the importance of InSAR as an efficient and accurate technique to monitor the deformation rate of peatlands, which have a vital role in the global carbon cycle.
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| 7. |
- Njenga, Mary, et al.
(författare)
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Quality of charcoal produced using micro gasification and how the new cook stove works in rural Kenya
- 2017
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP PUBLISHING LTD. - 1748-9326. ; 12:9
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Wood based energy is the main source of cooking and heating fuel in Sub-Saharan Africa. Its use rises as the population increases. Inefficient cook stoves result in fuel wastage and health issues associated with smoke in the kitchen. As users are poor women, they tend not to be consulted on cook stove development, hence the need for participatory development of efficient woodfuel cooking systems. This paper presents the findings of a study carried out in Embu, Kenya to assess energy use efficiency and concentrations of carbon monoxide and fine particulate matter from charcoal produced using gasifier cook stoves, compared to conventional wood charcoal. Charcoal made from Grevillea robusta prunings, Zea mays cob (maize cob) and Cocos nucifera (coconut shells) had calorific values of 26.5 kJ g(-1), 28.7 kJ g-1 and 31.7 kJ g(-1) respectively, which are comparable to conventional wood charcoal with calorific values of 33.1 kJ g(-1). Cooking with firewood in a gasifier cook stove and use of the resultant charcoal as by-product to cook another meal in a conventional charcoal stove saved 41% of the amount of fuel compared to cooking with firewood in the traditional three stone open fire. Cooking with firewood based on G. robusta prunings in the traditional open fire resulted in a concentration of fine particulate matter of 2600 mu g m(-3), which is more than 100 times greater than from cooking with charcoal made from G. robusta prunings in a gasifier. Thirty five percent of households used the gasifier for cooking dinner and lunch, and cooks preferred using it for food that took a short time to prepare. Although the gasifier cook stove is energy and emission efficient there is a need for it to be developed further to better suit local cooking preferences. The energy transition in Africa will have to include cleaner and more sustainable wood based cooking systems.
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Piemontese, Luigi, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Investing in sustainable intensification for smallholders : quantifying large-scale costs and benefits in Uganda
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 17:4
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In Uganda, upgrading smallholder agriculture is a necessary step to achieve the interlinked sustainable development goals of hunger eradication, poverty reduction and land degradation neutrality. However, targeting the right restoration practices and estimate their cost-benefit at the national scale is difficult given the highly contextual nature of restoration practices and the diversity of small-scale interventions to be adopted. By analysing the context-specific outcomes of 82 successful case studies on different sustainable land and water management (SLWM) in Uganda, we estimated that out-scaling of existing successful practices to 75% of agricultural land would require a one-time investment of US$ 4.4 billion from smallholders. Our results show that, besides the many social and environmental benefit commonly associated to SLWM, a wide outscale of SLWM could generate US$ 4.7 billion every year, once the practices are fully operational. Our context-specific estimates highlight the profitability of investing in smallholder farming to achieve the sustainable development goals in Uganda, with geographical differences coming from specific social-ecological conditions. This study can guide sustainable intensification development by targeting the most suitable SLWM practices and plan for adequate financial support from government, investors and international development aids to smallholder farming.
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