| 1. |
- Bridel, Claire, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic Value of Cerebrospinal Fluid Neurofilament Light Protein in Neurology : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6149 .- 2168-6157. ; 76:9, s. 1035-1048
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance Neurofilament light protein (NfL) is elevated in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of a number of neurological conditions compared with healthy controls (HC) and is a candidate biomarker for neuroaxonal damage. The influence of age and sex is largely unknown, and levels across neurological disorders have not been compared systematically to date.Objectives To assess the associations of age, sex, and diagnosis with NfL in CSF (cNfL) and to evaluate its potential in discriminating clinically similar conditions.Data Sources PubMed was searched for studies published between January 1, 2006, and January 1, 2016, reporting cNfL levels (using the search terms neurofilament light and cerebrospinal fluid) in neurological or psychiatric conditions and/or in HC.Study Selection Studies reporting NfL levels measured in lumbar CSF using a commercially available immunoassay, as well as age and sex.Data Extraction and Synthesis Individual-level data were requested from study authors. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the fixed effects of age, sex, and diagnosis on log-transformed NfL levels, with cohort of origin modeled as a random intercept.Main Outcome and Measure The cNfL levels adjusted for age and sex across diagnoses.Results Data were collected for 10 059 individuals (mean [SD] age, 59.7 [18.8] years; 54.1% female). Thirty-five diagnoses were identified, including inflammatory diseases of the central nervous system (n = 2795), dementias and predementia stages (n = 4284), parkinsonian disorders (n = 984), and HC (n = 1332). The cNfL was elevated compared with HC in a majority of neurological conditions studied. Highest levels were observed in cognitively impaired HIV-positive individuals (iHIV), amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, frontotemporal dementia (FTD), and Huntington disease. In 33.3% of diagnoses, including HC, multiple sclerosis, Alzheimer disease (AD), and Parkinson disease (PD), cNfL was higher in men than women. The cNfL increased with age in HC and a majority of neurological conditions, although the association was strongest in HC. The cNfL overlapped in most clinically similar diagnoses except for FTD and iHIV, which segregated from other dementias, and PD, which segregated from atypical parkinsonian syndromes.Conclusions and Relevance These data support the use of cNfL as a biomarker of neuroaxonal damage and indicate that age-specific and sex-specific (and in some cases disease-specific) reference values may be needed. The cNfL has potential to assist the differentiation of FTD from AD and PD from atypical parkinsonian syndromes.
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| 2. |
- Jansen, Willemijn J, et al.
(författare)
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Prevalence Estimates of Amyloid Abnormality Across the Alzheimer Disease Clinical Spectrum.
- 2022
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Ingår i: JAMA neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6157 .- 2168-6149. ; 79:3, s. 228-243
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- One characteristic histopathological event in Alzheimer disease (AD) is cerebral amyloid aggregation, which can be detected by biomarkers in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and on positron emission tomography (PET) scans. Prevalence estimates of amyloid pathology are important for health care planning and clinical trial design.To estimate the prevalence of amyloid abnormality in persons with normal cognition, subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or clinical AD dementia and to examine the potential implications of cutoff methods, biomarker modality (CSF or PET), age, sex, APOE genotype, educational level, geographical region, and dementia severity for these estimates.This cross-sectional, individual-participant pooled study included participants from 85 Amyloid Biomarker Study cohorts. Data collection was performed from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2020. Participants had normal cognition, subjective cognitive decline, mild cognitive impairment, or clinical AD dementia. Normal cognition and subjective cognitive decline were defined by normal scores on cognitive tests, with the presence of cognitive complaints defining subjective cognitive decline. Mild cognitive impairment and clinical AD dementia were diagnosed according to published criteria.Alzheimer disease biomarkers detected on PET or in CSF.Amyloid measurements were dichotomized as normal or abnormal using cohort-provided cutoffs for CSF or PET or by visual reading for PET. Adjusted data-driven cutoffs for abnormal amyloid were calculated using gaussian mixture modeling. Prevalence of amyloid abnormality was estimated according to age, sex, cognitive status, biomarker modality, APOE carrier status, educational level, geographical location, and dementia severity using generalized estimating equations.Among the 19 097 participants (mean [SD] age, 69.1 [9.8] years; 10 148 women [53.1%]) included, 10 139 (53.1%) underwent an amyloid PET scan and 8958 (46.9%) had an amyloid CSF measurement. Using cohort-provided cutoffs, amyloid abnormality prevalences were similar to 2015 estimates for individuals without dementia and were similar across PET- and CSF-based estimates (24%; 95% CI, 21%-28%) in participants with normal cognition, 27% (95% CI, 21%-33%) in participants with subjective cognitive decline, and 51% (95% CI, 46%-56%) in participants with mild cognitive impairment, whereas for clinical AD dementia the estimates were higher for PET than CSF (87% vs 79%; mean difference, 8%; 95% CI, 0%-16%; P = .04). Gaussian mixture modeling-based cutoffs for amyloid measures on PET scans were similar to cohort-provided cutoffs and were not adjusted. Adjusted CSF cutoffs resulted in a 10% higher amyloid abnormality prevalence than PET-based estimates in persons with normal cognition (mean difference, 9%; 95% CI, 3%-15%; P = .004), subjective cognitive decline (9%; 95% CI, 3%-15%; P = .005), and mild cognitive impairment (10%; 95% CI, 3%-17%; P = .004), whereas the estimates were comparable in persons with clinical AD dementia (mean difference, 4%; 95% CI, -2% to 9%; P = .18).This study found that CSF-based estimates using adjusted data-driven cutoffs were up to 10% higher than PET-based estimates in people without dementia, whereas the results were similar among people with dementia. This finding suggests that preclinical and prodromal AD may be more prevalent than previously estimated, which has important implications for clinical trial recruitment strategies and health care planning policies.
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| 3. |
- Mattsson-Carlgren, Niklas, et al.
(författare)
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Plasma Biomarker Strategy for Selecting Patients With Alzheimer Disease for Antiamyloid Immunotherapies.
- 2023
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Ingår i: JAMA neurology. - 2168-6157. ; 81:1, s. 69-78
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Antiamyloid immunotherapies against Alzheimer disease (AD) are emerging. Scalable, cost-effective tools will be needed to identify amyloid β (Aβ)-positive patients without an advanced stage of tau pathology who are most likely to benefit from these therapies. Blood-based biomarkers might reduce the need to use cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) or positron emission tomography (PET) for this.To evaluate plasma biomarkers for identifying Aβ positivity and stage of tau accumulation.The cohort study (BioFINDER-2) was a prospective memory-clinic and population-based study. Participants with cognitive concerns were recruited from 2017 to 2022 and divided into a training set (80% of the data) and test set (20%).Baseline values for plasma phosphorylated tau 181 (p-tau181), p-tau217, p-tau231, N-terminal tau, glial fibrillary acidic protein, and neurofilament light chain.Performance to classify participants by Aβ status (defined by Aβ-PET or CSF Aβ42/40) and tau status (tau PET). Number of hypothetically saved PET scans in a plasma biomarker-guided workflow.Of a total 912 participants, there were 499 males (54.7%) and 413 females (45.3%), and the mean (SD) age was 71.1 (8.49) years. Among the biomarkers, plasma p-tau217 was most strongly associated with Aβ positivity (test-set area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.94; 95% CI, 0.90-0.97). A 2-cut-point procedure was evaluated, where only participants with ambiguous plasma p-tau217 values (17.1% of the participants in the test set) underwent CSF or PET to assign definitive Aβ status. This procedure had an overall sensitivity of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.90-0.98) and a specificity of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.77-0.95). Next, plasma biomarkers were used to differentiate low-intermediate vs high tau-PET load among Aβ-positive participants. Plasma p-tau217 again performed best, with the test AUC = 0.92 (95% CI, 0.86-0.97), without significant improvement when adding any of the other plasma biomarkers. At a false-negative rate less than 10%, the use of plasma p-tau217 could avoid 56.9% of tau-PET scans needed to identify high tau PET among Aβ-positive participants. The results were validated in an independent cohort (n = 118).This study found that algorithms using plasma p-tau217 can accurately identify most Aβ-positive individuals, including those likely to have a high tau load who would require confirmatory tau-PET imaging. Plasma p-tau217 measurements may substantially reduce the number of invasive and costly confirmatory tests required to identify individuals who would likely benefit from antiamyloid therapies.
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| 4. |
- Mattsson, Niklas, 1979, et al.
(författare)
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Association of Plasma Neurofilament Light With Neurodegeneration in Patients With Alzheimer Disease.
- 2017
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Ingår i: JAMA neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6157 .- 2168-6149. ; 74:5, s. 557-566
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Existing cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) or imaging (tau positron emission tomography) biomarkers for Alzheimer disease (AD) are invasive or expensive. Biomarkers based on standard blood test results would be useful in research, drug development, and clinical practice. Plasma neurofilament light (NFL) has recently been proposed as a blood-based biomarker for neurodegeneration in dementias.To test whether plasma NFL concentrations are increased in AD and associated with cognitive decline, other AD biomarkers, and imaging evidence of neurodegeneration.In this prospective case-control study, an ultrasensitive assay was used to measure plasma NFL concentration in 193 cognitively healthy controls, 197 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 180 patients with AD dementia from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. The study dates were September 7, 2005, to February 13, 2012. The plasma NFL analysis was performed in September 2016.Associations were tested between plasma NFL and diagnosis, Aβ pathologic features, CSF biomarkers of neuronal injury, cognition, brain structure, and metabolism.Among 193 cognitively healthy controls, 197 patients with mild cognitive impairment, and 180 patients with AD with dementia, plasma NFL correlated with CSF NFL (Spearman ρ = 0.59, P < .001). Plasma NFL was increased in patients with MCI (mean, 42.8 ng/L) and patients with AD dementia (mean, 51.0 ng/L) compared with controls (mean, 34.7 ng/L) (P < .001) and had high diagnostic accuracy for patients with AD with dementia vs controls (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.87, which is comparable to established CSF biomarkers). Plasma NFL was particularly high in patients with MCI and patients with AD dementia with Aβ pathologic features. High plasma NFL correlated with poor cognition and AD-related atrophy (at baseline and longitudinally) and with brain hypometabolism (longitudinally).Plasma NFL is associated with AD diagnosis and with cognitive, biochemical, and imaging hallmarks of the disease. This finding implies a potential usefulness for plasma NFL as a noninvasive biomarker in AD.
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| 5. |
- Moseby-Knappe, Marion, et al.
(författare)
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Serum Neurofilament Light Chain for Prognosis of Outcome after Cardiac Arrest
- 2019
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Ingår i: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6149 .- 2168-6157. ; 76:1, s. 64-64
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Prognostication of neurologic outcome after cardiac arrest is an important but challenging aspect of patient therapy management in critical care units. Objective: To determine whether serum neurofilament light chain (NFL) levels can be used for prognostication of neurologic outcome after cardiac arrest. Design, Setting and Participants: Prospective clinical biobank study of data from the randomized Target Temperature Management After Cardiac Arrest trial, an international, multicenter study with 29 participating sites. Patients were included between November 11, 2010, and January 10, 2013. Serum NFL levels were analyzed between August 1 and August 23, 2017, after trial completion. A total of 782 unconscious patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac origin were eligible. Exposures: Serum NFL concentrations analyzed at 24, 48, and 72 hours after cardiac arrest with an ultrasensitive immunoassay. Main Outcomes and Measures: Poor neurologic outcome at 6-month follow-up, defined according to the Cerebral Performance Category Scale as cerebral performance category 3 (severe cerebral disability), 4 (coma), or 5 (brain death). Results: Of 782 eligible patients, 65 patients (8.3%) were excluded because of issues with aliquoting, missing sampling, missing outcome, or transport problems of samples. Of the 717 patients included (91.7%), 580 were men (80.9%) and median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 65 (56-73) years. A total of 360 patients (50.2%) had poor neurologic outcome at 6 months. Median (IQR) serum NFL level was significantly increased in the patients with poor outcome vs good outcome at 24 hours (1426 [299-3577] vs 37 [20-70] pg/mL), 48 hours (3240 [623-8271] vs 46 [26-101] pg/mL), and 72 hours (3344 [845-7838] vs 54 [30-122] pg/mL) (P <.001 at all time points), with high overall performance (area under the curve, 0.94-0.95) and high sensitivities at high specificities (eg, 69% sensitivity with 98% specificity at 24 hours). Serum NFL levels had significantly greater performance than the other biochemical serum markers (ie, tau, neuron-specific enolase, and S100). At comparable specificities, serum NFL levels had greater sensitivity for poor outcome compared with routine electroencephalogram, somatosensory-evoked potentials, head computed tomography, and both pupillary and corneal reflexes (ranging from 29.2% to 49.0% greater for serum NFL level). Conclusions and Relevance: Findings from this study suggest that the serum NFL level is a highly predictive marker of long-term poor neurologic outcome at 24 hours after cardiac arrest and may be a useful complement to currently available neurologic prognostication methods.
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| 6. |
- Skillbäck, Tobias, et al.
(författare)
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Diagnostic Performance of Cerebrospinal Fluid Total Tau and Phosphorylated Tau in Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease: Results From the Swedish Mortality Registry.
- 2014
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Ingår i: JAMA neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6157 .- 2168-6149. ; 71:4, s. 476-483
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- IMPORTANCE Identifying a clinical distinction between the invariably lethal prion disease Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and nonprion rapidly progressive dementias is important and sometimes difficult; thus, reliable tools for diagnosis are in great demand. OBJECTIVE To test the diagnostic performance of dementia cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers total tau (T-tau), phosphorylated tau (P-tau), and the T-tau to P-tau ratio for CJD by analyzing the results from a large database of routine clinical samples in combination with diagnosis information from the Swedish Mortality Registry. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a retrospective cohort study. We cross-referenced the Swedish Mortality Registry with a data set of CSF measurements of T-tau and P-tau performed in routine clinical testing at the Clinical Neurochemistry Laboratory of the Sahlgrenska University Hospital, which serves most of Sweden. The data set consisted of 9765 deceased individuals with CSF measures, including 93 with CJD, with 52 autopsy-verified samples (56%). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES For each patient, T-tau and P-tau levels in CSF were measured and the T-tau to P-tau ratio was calculated. Biomarker levels (adjusted for age and sex) were analyzed in relation to the recorded cause of death and time of death. We specifically tested a previously defined CJD biomarker profile (T-tau >1400 ng/L and T-tau to P-tau-ratio >25). RESULTS Patients who died of CJD had elevated CSF T-tau levels and T-tau to P-tau ratio, but not elevated CSF P-tau levels, compared with patients who died of Alzheimer disease (AD) and other dementias. The previously defined biomarker profile had a specificity of 99.0%, a sensitivity of 78.5%, and a positive likelihood ratio of 79.9. When tested against common differential diagnoses, the sensitivity, specificity, and positive likelihood ratio of this profile was 78.5%, 99.6%, and 196.6, respectively, in relation to AD and 78.5%, 99.3%, and 109.3, respectively, in relation to other dementias. In CJD individuals (n = 30) with repeated measurements, but not in those with AD (n = 242) or other dementias (n = 258), T-tau levels and T-tau to P-tau ratios increased over time. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this routine clinical setting, the combination of increased T-tau levels and increased T-tau to P-tau ratios in CJD patients has a very high specificity against important differential diagnoses to CJD and may serve as a clinically useful diagnostic test.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Insel, Philip S., et al.
(författare)
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Association between Apolipoprotein e ϵ2 vs ϵ4, Age, and β-Amyloid in Adults without Cognitive Impairment
- 2021
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Ingår i: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6149. ; 78:2, s. 229-229
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: Although the most common recent approach in Alzheimer disease drug discovery is to directly target the β-amyloid (Aβ) pathway, the high prevalence of apolipoprotein E ϵ4 (APOE ϵ4) in Alzheimer disease and the ease of identifying ϵ4 carriers make the APOE genotype and its corresponding protein (apoE) an appealing therapeutic target to slow Aβ accumulation. Objective: To determine whether the ϵ2 allele is protective against Aβ accumulation in the presence of the ϵ4 allele and evaluate how age and the APOE genotype are associated with emerging Aβ accumulation and cognitive dysfunction. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used screening data from the Anti-Amyloid Treatment in Asymptomatic Alzheimer Disease Study (A4 Study) collected from April 2014 to December 2017 and analyzed from November 2019 to July 2020. Of the 6943 participants who were a part of the multicenter clinical trial screening visit, 4432 were adults without cognitive impairment aged 65 to 85 years who completed a fluorine 18-labeled (18F)-florbetapir positron emission tomography scan, had APOE genotype information, and had a Clinical Dementia Rating of 0. Participants who were taking a prescription Alzheimer medication or had a current serious or unstable illness that could interfere with the study were excluded. Main Outcomes and Measures: Aβ pathology, measured by 18F-florbetapir positron emission tomography and cognition, measured by the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite. Results: A total of 4432 participants were included (mean [SD] age, 71.3 [4.7] years; 2634 women [59.4%]), with a mean (SD) of 16.6 (2.8) years of education and 1512 (34.1%) with a positive Aβ level. APOE ϵ2 was associated with a reduction in both the overall (standardized uptake value ratio [SUVR], ϵ24, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.08-1.14]; ϵ34, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.17-1.19]) and the age-dependent level of Aβ in the presence of ϵ4, with Aβ levels in the APOE ϵ24 group (n = 115; ϵ24, 0.005 SUVR increase per year of age) increasing at less than half the rate with respect to increasing age compared with the APOE ϵ34 group (n = 1295; 0.012 SUVR increase per year of age; P =.04). The association between Aβ and decreasing Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite scores did not differ by APOE genotype, and the reduced performance on the Preclinical Alzheimer Cognitive Composite in APOE ϵ4 carriers compared with noncarriers was completely mediated by Aβ (unadjusted difference in composite scores between ϵ4 carriers and noncarriers = -0.084, P =.005; after adjusting for 18F-florbetapir = -0.006, P =.85; after adjusting for 18F-florbetapir and cardiovascular scores = -0.009, P =.78). Conclusions and Relevance: These findings suggest that the protective outcome of carrying an ϵ2 allele in the presence of an ϵ4 allele against Aβ accumulation is important for potential treatments that attempt to biochemically mimic the function of the ϵ2 allele in order to facilitate Aβ clearance in ϵ4 carriers. Such a treatment strategy is appealing, as ϵ4 carriers make up approximately two-thirds of patients with Alzheimer disease dementia. This strategy could represent an early treatment option, as many ϵ4 carriers begin to accumulate Aβ in early middle age..
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| 9. |
- Janelidze, Shorena, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of Plasma Phospho-Tau217 Levels with Tau Positron Emission Tomography in Early Alzheimer Disease
- 2021
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Ingår i: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6149. ; 78:2, s. 149-149
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: There is an urgent need for inexpensive and minimally invasive blood biomarkers for Alzheimer disease (AD) that could be used to detect early disease changes. Objective: To assess how early in the course of AD plasma levels of tau phosphorylated at threonine 217 (P-tau217) start to change compared with levels of established cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and positron emission tomography (PET) biomarkers of AD pathology. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included cognitively healthy control individuals (n = 225) and participants with subjective cognitive decline (n = 89) or mild cognitive impairment (n = 176) from the BioFINDER-2 study. Participants were enrolled at 2 different hospitals in Sweden from January 2017 to October 2019. All study participants underwent plasma P-tau217 assessments and tau- and amyloid-β (Aβ)-PET imaging. A subcohort of 111 participants had 2 or 3 tau-PET scans. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in plasma P-tau217 levels in preclinical and prodromal AD compared with changes in CSF P-tau217 and PET measures. Results: Of 490 participants, 251 were women (51.2%) and the mean (SD) age was 65.9 (13.1) years. Plasma P-tau217 levels were increased in cognitively unimpaired participants with abnormal Aβ-PET but normal tau-PET in the entorhinal cortex (Aβ-PET+/ tau-PET- group vs Aβ-PET-/ tau-PET- group: median, 2.2 pg/mL [interquartile range (IQR), 1.5-2.9 pg/mL] vs 0.7 pg/mL [IQR, 0.3-1.4 pg/mL]). Most cognitively unimpaired participants who were discordant for plasma P-tau217 and tau-PET were positive for plasma P-tau217 and negative for tau-PET (P-tau217+/tau-PET-: 36 [94.7%]; P-tau217-/tau-PET+: 2 [5.3%]). Event-based modeling of cross-sectional data predicted that in cognitively unimpaired participants and in those with mild cognitive impairment, both plasma and CSF P-tau217 would change before the tau-PET signal in the entorhinal cortex, followed by more widespread cortical tau-PET changes. When testing the association with global Aβ load in nonlinear spline models, both plasma and CSF P-tau217 were increased at lower Aβ-PET values compared with tau-PET measures. Among participants with normal baseline tau-PET, the rates of longitudinal increase in tau-PET in the entorhinal cortex were higher in those with abnormal plasma P-tau217 at baseline (median standardized uptake value ratio, 0.029 [IQR, -0.006 to 0.041] vs -0.001 [IQR, -0.021 to 0.020]; Mann-Whitney U, P =.02). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, plasma P-tau217 levels were increased during the early preclinical stages of AD when insoluble tau aggregates were not yet detectable by tau-PET. Plasma P-tau217 may hold promise as a biomarker for early AD brain pathology.
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| 10. |
- Leuzy, Antoine, et al.
(författare)
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Biomarker-Based Prediction of Longitudinal Tau Positron Emission Tomography in Alzheimer Disease
- 2022
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Ingår i: JAMA Neurology. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 2168-6149. ; 79:2, s. 149-158
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Importance: There is currently no consensus as to which biomarkers best predict longitudinal tau accumulation at different clinical stages of Alzheimer disease (AD). Objective: To describe longitudinal [18F]RO948 tau positron emission tomography (PET) findings across the clinical continuum of AD and determine which biomarker combinations showed the strongest associations with longitudinal tau PET and best optimized clinical trial enrichment. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal cohort study consecutively enrolled amyloid-β (Aβ)-negative cognitively unimpaired (CU) participants, Aβ-positive CU individuals, Aβ-positive individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and individuals with AD dementia between September 2017 and November 2020 from the Swedish BioFINDER-2 (discovery cohort) and BioFINDER-1 (validation cohort) studies. Exposures: Baseline plasma and cerebrospinal fluid Aβ42/Aβ40, tau phosphorylated at threonine-217 (p-tau217), p-tau181 and neurofilament light, magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid PET ([18F]flutemetamol), and tau PET ([18F]RO948 in the BioFINDER-2 study; [18F]flortaucipir in the BioFINDER-1 study). Main Outcomes and Measures: Baseline tau PET standardized uptake value ratio (SUVR) and annual percent change in tau PET SUVR across regions of interest derived using a data-driven approach combining clustering and event-based modeling. Regression models were used to examine associations between individual biomarkers and longitudinal tau PET and to identify which combinations best predicted longitudinal tau PET. These combinations were then entered in a power analysis to examine how their use as an enrichment strategy would affect sample size in a simulated clinical trial. Results: Of 343 participants, the mean (SD) age was 72.56 (7.24) years, and 157 (51.1%) were female. The clustering/event-based modeling-based approach identified 5 regions of interest (stages). In Aβ-positive CU individuals, the largest annual increase in tau PET SUVR was seen in stage I (entorhinal cortex, hippocampus, and amygdala; 4.04% [95% CI, 2.67%-5.32%]). In Aβ-positive individuals with MCI and with AD dementia, the greatest increases were seen in stages II (temporal cortical regions; 4.45% [95% CI, 3.41%-5.49%]) and IV (certain frontal regions; 5.22% [95% CI, 3.95%-6.49%]), respectively. In Aβ-negative CU individuals and those with MCI, modest change was seen in stage I (1.38% [95% CI, 0.78%-1.99%] and 1.80% [95% CI, 0.76%-2.84%], respectively). When looking at individual predictors and longitudinal tau PET in the stages that showed most change, plasma p-tau217 (R2= 0.27, P <.005), tau PET (stage I baseline SUVR; R2= 0.13, P <.05) and amyloid PET (R2= 0.10, P <.05) were significantly associated with longitudinal tau PET in stage I in Aβ-positive CU individuals. In Aβ-positive individuals with MCI, plasma p-tau217 (R2= 0.24, P <.005) and tau PET (stage II baseline SUVR; R2= 0.44, P <.001) were significantly associated with longitudinal tau PET in stage II. Findings were replicated in BioFINDER-1 using longitudinal [18F]flortaucipir. For the power analysis component, plasma p-tau217 with tau PET resulted in sample size reductions of 43% (95% CI, 34%-46%; P <.005) in Aβ-positive CU individuals and of 68% (95% CI, 61%-73%; P <.001) in Aβ-positive individuals with MCI. Conclusions and Relevance: In trials using tau PET as the outcome, plasma p-tau217 with tau PET may prove optimal for enrichment in preclinical and prodromal AD. However, plasma p-tau217 was most important in preclinical AD, while tau PET was more important in prodromal AD..
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