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Sökning: L773:2397 3374 > Naturvetenskap

  • Resultat 1-9 av 9
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1.
  • Strimling, Pontus, et al. (författare)
  • The connection between moral positions and moral arguments drives opinion change
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : NLM (Medline). - 2397-3374. ; 3:9, s. 922-930
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Liberals and conservatives often take opposing positions on moral issues. But what makes a moral position liberal or conservative? Why does public opinion tend to become more liberal over time? And why does public opinion change especially fast on certain issues, such as gay rights? We offer an explanation based on how different positions connect with different kinds of moral arguments. Based on a formal model of opinion dynamics, we predicted that positions better connected to harm and fairness arguments will be more popular among liberals and will become more popular over time among liberals and conservatives. Finally, the speed of this trend will be faster the better the position connects to harm and fairness arguments. These predictions all held with high accuracy in 44 years of polling on moral opinions. The model explains the connection between ideology and moral opinions, and generates precise predictions for future opinion change.
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2.
  • Orach, Kirill, et al. (författare)
  • Sustainable natural resource governance under interest group competition in policy-making
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 4:9, s. 898-909
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Non-state actors play an increasingly important role in environmental policy. Lobbying by interest groups has been associated with policy stagnation and environmental degradation as well as with sustainable governance. However, little is known about how competition between economic and environmental interests influences the ability of governance systems to avoid undesirable outcomes. We investigate how competing interest group behaviour affects sustainable resource management by tracing the policy change process in a case study of the European Union fisheries policy and analysing its dynamics with an agent-based model. We find that formation of interest group coalitions in response to a perceived crisis can delay or prevent collapses, even when the competing interests have unequal resources. We attribute such outcomes to the emergence and timing of a ‘tug of war’ mechanism between competing interest group coalitions. We argue that attempts to improve sustainable resource management must account for feedbacks from environmental change to behaviours of political actors.
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3.
  • Strimling, Pontus, et al. (författare)
  • Asymmetries in punishment propensity may drive the civilizing process
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2397-3374. ; 2:2, s. 148-155
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Norms about hygiene and violence have both shown a tendency to become increasingly strict, in the sense that the handling of bodily fluids and the use of violence have become increasingly restricted. The generality of this directional change across a large number of societies has not been captured by previous explanations. We propose an explanation of the directional change that is based on the aggregation of everyday interactions. This theory posits that directional norm change can come about if there is an asymmetry in punishment propensity between the people who prefer stricter norms and those who prefer looser norms. Asymmetry in punishment can arise from underlying asymmetry in the threat perceived, where a stricter-than-preferred behaviour is perceived as inherently less threatening than a looser one. We demonstrate the logic of the theory using a formal model and test some of its assumptions through survey experiments.
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4.
  • Benjamin, Daniel J., et al. (författare)
  • Redefine statistical significance
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Nature Research (part of Springer Nature). - 2397-3374. ; 2:1, s. 6-10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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5.
  • Grossmann, Igor, et al. (författare)
  • Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
  • 2023
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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6.
  • Lakens, Daniel, et al. (författare)
  • Justify your alpha
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2397-3374. ; 2:3, s. 168-171
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In response to recommendations to redefine statistical significance to P ≤ 0.005, we propose that researchers should transparently report and justify all choices they make when designing a study, including the alpha level.
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8.
  • Mills, Melinda C., et al. (författare)
  • Identification of 371 genetic variants for age at first sex and birth linked to externalising behaviour
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 5:12, s. 1717-1730
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Age at first sexual intercourse and age at first birth have implications for health and evolutionary fitness. In this genome-wide association study (age at first sexual intercourse, N = 387,338; age at first birth, N = 542,901), we identify 371 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, 11 sex-specific, with a 5-6% polygenic score prediction. Heritability of age at first birth shifted from 9% [CI = 4-14%] for women born in 1940 to 22% [CI = 19-25%] for those born in 1965. Signals are driven by the genetics of reproductive biology and externalising behaviour, with key genes related to follicle stimulating hormone (FSHB), implantation (ESR1), infertility and spermatid differentiation. Our findings suggest that polycystic ovarian syndrome may lead to later age at first birth, linking with infertility. Late age at first birth is associated with parental longevity and reduced incidence of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Higher childhood socioeconomic circumstances and those in the highest polygenic score decile (90%+) experience markedly later reproductive onset. Results are relevant for improving teenage and late-life health, understanding longevity and guiding experimentation into mechanisms of infertility. This genome-wide study of age at first sexual intercourse and first birth identifies 371 signals driven by reproductive biology, externalising behaviour and environmental effects, with later onset associated with lower incidence of some diseases.
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9.
  • Plechac, Petr, et al. (författare)
  • Beowulf single-authorship claim is unsupported
  • 2021
  • Ingår i: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 5:11, s. 1481-1483
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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  • Resultat 1-9 av 9

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