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Sökning: LAR1:cth > Högskolan i Gävle > Sandén Björn

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1.
  • Hillman, Karl, 1978, et al. (författare)
  • Cumulative causation in biofuels development: a critical comparison of the Netherlands and Sweden
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Technology Analysis and Strategic Management. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0953-7325 .- 1465-3990. ; 20:5, s. 593-612
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Supporting the development and diffusion of sustainable innovations has become a dominant topic on the political agenda of many countries. However, this has proven to be a difficult task. To increase insight in such processes, this paper takes biofuel technologies in the mobility sector as the topic of a comparative case study. Various national governments have supported innovation trajectories around biofuels. We analyse, assess and compare two such trajectories as they have developed so far: one in the Netherlands and one in Sweden. A Technological Innovation System (TIS) approach is applied. A TIS is constituted by actors, networks and institutions, that are to be gradually constructed around a technology. We analyse whether governments and entrepreneurs have succeeded in developing seven key processes, or system functions, necessary for the development and diffusion of biofuel technologies. By analysing the build-up of system functions over time we identify virtuous and vicious forms of cumulative causation. The Dutch and Swedish TISs for biofuels are followed from 1990 to 2005. Our comparison shows that, due to a variety in function fulfilment and the emergence of cumulative causation, the Swedish TIS has reached a market expansion and broad social implementation of biofuels, whereas the Dutch TIS has established considerably less.
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2.
  • Hillman, Karl (författare)
  • Environmental Assessment and Strategic Technology Choice : The Case of Renewable Transport Fuels
  • 2008
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • The scale of the required changes is huge, and time is limited if we are to avoid the most severe effects of climate change. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transport, several fuels and electricity originating from renewable energy sources have been proposed, all of them in different stages of development and with various and shifting environmental impacts. This thesis aims at increasing the usefulness of environmental assessments of emerging technologies as a basis for strategic technology choice. Recommendations for the design and interpretation of such assessments are presented, with a special focus on life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology. A long time perspective, the possibility of system change, and the inclusion of socio–technical change processes allows for the revision of methodological assumptions normally made in LCA of current products. To guide the selection of technologies, there is need for assessment both of technology and of interventions. For the assessment of technology, an attributional approach is applied. Paper I discusses and tests the feasible futures and future performance to be considered in attributional LCAs. The results indicate that the environmental impact attributable to a number of selected fuels, as well as the ranking of them, largely depend on assumptions regarding background systems and by-product use. For the assessment of interventions, a consequential approach is applied. Extensive studies of socio–technical change processes contribute insight into relevant cause–effect chains that can be included in environmental assessments of emerging technologies. A comparison between the Swedish and the Dutch innovation systems for renewable fuels reveals the unfolding of dynamics influenced by shared background factors (Paper II). An investigation of the Swedish history of alternative fuels is used in developing a framework for analysing interaction between emerging technological systems (Paper III). Insights into socio–technical change processes are then used to elaborate scenarios for the future development of renewable fuels in Sweden resulting from current policy choices (Paper IV). In a final paper (Paper V), historical and future cause–effect chains are taken into account in a consequential LCA of ethanol of varying origins in Sweden for the 1990–2020 period. It is concluded that for emerging technologies in an early stage of development, the contribution of an intervention to system change may be more important than the direct change in environmental impact. Finally, it is suggested that all aspects of socio–technical change and the resulting environmental impact may not have to be included in quantitative environmental assessments, such as LCA. ‘Environmental assessment’ could very well include a group of parallel studies that illuminate different cause–effect chains resulting in changed environmental impact, and that are part of a society-wide learning process.
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3.
  • Hillman, Karl, 1978, et al. (författare)
  • Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007–2020
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Technological Forecasting and Social Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 75:8, s. 1279-1302
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system. © 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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4.
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5.
  • Jonasson, Karl, et al. (författare)
  • Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2005-2020
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: 4th European Meeting on Applied Evolutionary Economics (EMAEE).
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • In this paper we use a socio-technical scenario approach to illustrate how the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden can be influenced by different policy choices. With the present situation as a starting point, we introduce different feasible scenarios for the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden from 2005-2020. The scenario policies differ mainly on two points: (i) the commitment and economic incentives aiming at a rapid introduction of existing alternative transport fuels and (ii) the economic resources allocated to R&D of new, more efficient alternatives. The main focus on the first point in our market-oriented scenario and on the second in our technology-oriented scenario has implications for the development of the stocks and structures of the socio-techno-environmental system (STE-system).A first phase in the development is seen between 2005 and 2010. In the market-oriented scenario, a domestic production and a relatively widespread use of alternative transport fuels create advocates for these alternatives among producers and users. Limited explicit knowledge is gained, but legitimacy for alternatives to petrol and diesel is created. Physical artefacts are adjusted to the present alternative fuels, which are more similar to petrol and diesel than to new alternatives. In the technology-oriented scenario authorities and researchers are key actors. A high technical competence is built up in connection with pilot production plants for new alternative fuels. Both petrol and diesel are questioned, while the early alternatives are criticised for being too costly and having limited potential. A second phase, between 2011 and 2020, begins with a bifurcation of both scenarios, where one path from each is characterised by stagnation and one from each is characterised by growth, with regard to the potential for large-scale introduction of biofuels or other renewable fuels in Sweden.Our four scenarios, ending in 2020, can be seen as somewhat extreme examples of feasible outcomes resulting from policy choices made today. Numerous stocks and structures within the STE-system are affected and interact, to determine further changes of the system. In the market-oriented scenario, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternative fuels and vehicles, while we in the technology-oriented scenario point out the value of keeping variety among niches at the early stage of a transition. The latter may add to the capability to respond to exogenous shifts in a way that is beneficial for the transition.
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6.
  • Jonasson, Karl, et al. (författare)
  • Time and Scale Aspects in Life Cycle Assessment of Emerging Technologies: Case Study on Alternative Transport Fuels
  • 2004
  • Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Life cycle assessments (LCAs, including well-to-wheel studies) that are to support decisions that strive to change large technical systems need to consider time- and scale-related factors that are given little attention in standard LCA procedures. We suggest that it is important to look beyond the current situation and study many possible future states, what we call stylised states, to explore general technology differences. We choose to address three issues in this report. Our case study deals with alternative fuels for transportation, and relates to a recent well-to-wheel study performed by CONCAWE, EUCAR and JRC. The methodological results, though, could be of equal importance when studying other major technologies.First, shifting time frame gives room for technical development that should affect not only the choice of performance data, but perhaps also the functional unit and the selection of technologies under study.Second, background systems such as heat and power production change over time, and we exemplify by using three different systems, mainly based on coal, natural gas and short rotation forestry, respectively. Increased production volumes may for some technologies also change the background system, which is of particular importance for technologies that are used in their own production processes. We show that for biofuels changes in background systems have consequences not only for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and agricultural land use for each fuel chain, but also for the ranking order of e.g. wheat ethanol and RME, in terms of GHG emissions. We use what we call a net output approach, which implies that a fraction of the produced biofuel is used for its own production. Accordingly, the functional unit used in this study is 1 MJ fuel available for other purposes than producing fuel.Finally, different types of feedstock are available in different quantities and different by-product markets vary in size. Allocation of environmental impact between product and by-products is here made through system expansion, and we study some possible markets for by-products. To give an example of by-product effects, current key markets for ethanol by-products in EU-15 correspond to an ethanol production that covers about 2 % of demand, and for RME about 3 %, that is, well below the 5.75 % EU biofuel target for 2010. Therefore, the GHG emissions and agricultural land use allocated to the fuels differ between a low and a high market penetration.Combining the results, we show that time and scale are important factors for the ranking of wheat ethanol, RME and wood methanol in terms of GHG emissions and agricultural land use, as the results are dependent on assumptions regarding background system and by-product markets. We indicate that agricultural land use results can be weighted in GHG terms in several ways, e.g. by using short rotation forestry or solar panels as a reference, an approach that would require further research.
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7.
  • Jonasson, Karl, et al. (författare)
  • Time and Scale in LCA: Case Study on Biofuels
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: LCM 2005 - Innovation by Life Cycle Management. - : LCM 2005 - Innovation by Life Cycle Management. - 8460965643 ; 1, s. 501-505
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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8.
  • Sandén, Björn, 1968, et al. (författare)
  • A framework for analysis of multi-mode interaction among technologies with examples from the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: Research Policy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-7333 .- 1873-7625. ; 40:3, s. 403-414
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The relationship between technologies is a salient feature of the literature on technical change and terms like 'dominant design' and 'technology lock-in' are part of the standard vocabulary and put competition among technologies in focus. The aim of this paper is to provide an account of the wide range of interaction modes beyond competition that is prevalent in transition processes and to develop a conceptual framework to facilitate more detailed and nuanced descriptions of technology interaction. Besides competition, we identify five other basic modes of interaction: symbiosis, neutralism, parasitism, commensalism and amensalism. Further, we describe interaction as overlapping value chains. Defining a technology as a socio-technical system extending in material, organisational and conceptual dimensions allows for an even more detailed description of interaction. The conceptual framework is tested on and illustrated by a case study of interaction among alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974-2004. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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9.
  • Sandén, Björn, 1968, et al. (författare)
  • Competition and co-evolution among contenders: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974-2004
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: 4th European Meeting on Applied Evolutionary Economics (EMAEE).
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • Building on previous research, we further develop a theoretical framework for transition analysis. In particular, we are interested in the forces that guide the direction of change. We differentiate between exogenous and endogenous change where the latter can be described by the cumulative build-up of stocks and structures, which create path dependence, within a socio-technical system. Using this theoretical framework we discuss the relationship between different emerging technological alternatives to an incumbent technology, their competition and co-evolution, and their roles as bridges and dead-ends in a transition process. We then describe and analyse an early period of an ongoing transition in the road transport sector: the history of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 1974 to 2004.
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10.
  • Sandén, Björn, 1968, et al. (författare)
  • LCA of Emerging Technologies: A Methodological Framework
  • 2005
  • Ingår i: LCM 2005 - Innovation by Life Cycle Management. - : LCM 2005 - Innovation by Life Cycle Management. - 8460965643 ; 1, s. 37-41, s. 37-41
  • Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)
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