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- Nilsson, Marco, 1971
(författare)
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War and Unreason. Bounded Learning Theory and War Duration
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Why are some wars longer than others? Offense-defense theorists have assumed that wars are shorter and it is more difficult for states to create security when military technology favors the offense and attacking is easier than defending. This study argues that this assumption is wrong on both accounts. First, statistical hazards models show that various measures of the offense-defense balance are not associated with war duration in the state system between 1817 and 1992. Second, if wars are not shorter when offense is dominant, there should not be more rational incentives for decision-makers to start wars when offense has the advantage compared to when defending is relatively easier. The study develops the bounded learning theory to better understand the causes of war duration and tests it with four case studies. The theory argues that offense dominance is often so limited that it fails to guarantee that the enemy is swiftly run over, other things being equal. As a swift victory does not materialize with the help of offensive military technology and tactics, the process of finding a mutually acceptable negotiated solution to the war easily becomes long because of asymmetric information about expected offensive capacity and expansive ideology (asymmetric causal beliefs and offensive stakes). These variables make it unlikely that the combatants would quickly adjust their war aims so that they reflect their actual battlefield performance. As the combatants do not learn from the battlefield events, they cannot agree on their expected relative strength, which is necessary from a rational choice perspective for finding common ground for a peace treaty. Offense-defense theory specifies defense dominance as the prerequisite for more peaceful interstate relations. On the other hand, defense dominance is difficult to create as the realist self-help logic drives many states to continue developing offensive weapons technology. Furthermore, by assuming that wars are shorter during offense dominant eras, the offensedefense theory creates false incentives for aggression. It is common sense that the risk of war does not increase when defense is dominant. However, even when attacking is relatively easier than defending, incentives for aggression should not increase on average if wars are not particularly short. Thus the study is a contribution to defensive realism.
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| 2. |
- Raviola, Elena
(författare)
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Paper meets web : how the institution of news production works on paper and online
- 2010
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The dissertation investigates the institution of news production at work, on paper and online, through an ethnographic study at the largest Italian financial newspaper Il Sole-24 Ore. Building on institutional theory and taking inspiration from Bordieu’s theoretical apparatus describing how cultural capital works, the dissertation presents a framework for the way institutions work, a framework that echoes Mary Douglas’ How Institutions Think (1987). In the space created by the relationships between objects, practices and labels, institutions are at work in the alignments, disarrangements, re-alignments and new alignments among objects, practices and labels. This study examines the encounter between old and new to aid in the understanding of the workings of institutions, because the workings of institutions are made more visible in this encounter between aliens.Empirically, the occasion is the encounter between the newspaper and the website in the framework of the newspaper-website integration project at Il Sole-24 Ore. The main story line develops as follows: An old alignment around the newspaper (old object), to which old practices called journalistic (label) were aligned, is disarranged by the encounter with the website (new object), which is alien to the newspaper and carries new practices for making news. As a consequence of this encounter, the newspaper and the website vacillate between old and new practices and new alignments and realignments are formed: In these movements the institution of news production can be seen at work.This study offers a new perspective on the way institutions work, with serious consideration for the material, practical, and linguistic dimensions of institutions. It opens the black box of institutions, unpacking their workings in an attempt to clarify how stability of institutions results from the work of practices, objects and labels, which are products of institutions and at the same time produce them. Regarding news production in practice, this study aims at inspiring a reflection around what a newspaper is, a question at the very core of the industry transformation at the turn of the 21st century. By focusing on a highly debated topic, the study also offers reflections on the broader societal implications of new media for politics, business, knowledge, and professions.
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