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- Ackesjö, Helena, 1973-, et al.
(författare)
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Låt reformpennan vila!
- 2019
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Annan publikation (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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- Adamik, Barbara, et al.
(författare)
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Estimation of the Severeness Rate, Death Rate, Household Attack Rate and the Total Number of COVID-19 Cases Based on 16 115 Polish Surveillance Records
- 2020
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: Estimating the actual number of COVID-19 infections is crucial for steering through the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. It is, however, notoriously difficult, as many cases have no or only mild symptoms. Surveillance data for in-household secondary infections offers unbiased samples for COVID-19 prevalence estimation.Methods: We analyse 16 115 Polish surveillance records to obtain key figures of the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose conservative upper and lower bound estimators for the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections. Further, we estimate age-dependent bounds on the severe case rate, death rate, and the in-household attack rate.Results: By maximum likelihood estimates, the total number of COVID-19 cases in Poland as of July 22nd, 2020, is at most around 13 times larger and at least 1.6 times larger than the recorded number. The lower bound on the severeness rate ranges between 0.2% for the 0–39 year-old to 5.7% for older than 80, while the upper bound is between 2.6% and 34.1%. The lower bound on the death rate is between 0.04% for the age group 40–59 to 1.34% for the oldest. Overall, the severeness and death rates grow exponentially with age. The in-household attack ratio is 8.18% for the youngest group and 16.88% for the oldest.Conclusions: The proposed approach derives highly relevant figures on the COVID-19 pandemic from routine surveillance data, under assumption that household members of detected infected are tested and all severe cases are diagnosed.
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- Adelsjö, Igor, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of discharge letter content on unplanned hospital readmissions within 30 and 90 days in patients with chronic illness
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Aim: To determine the impact of discharge letter content on unplanned hospital readmissions within 30 and 90 days, and to identify correlations between discharge letter content and quality of care transitions among patients with chronic illness.Design: A convergent mixed methods design.Methods: Discharge letters from 154 patients recruited to a randomised controlled trial were coded using an assessment matrix and deductive content analysis. The assessment matrix was based on a literature review performed to identify key elements in discharge letters that facilitate a safe care transition to home. The coded key elements were transformed into a quantitative variable of 'discharge letter score'. Bivariate correlations between discharge letter score and quality of care transition as well as unplanned readmissions within 30 and 90 days were calculated. Lastly, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model was used to investigate associations between discharge letter score and time to readmission.Results: All discharge letters contained at least five of eleven key elements. In less than four percent, all eleven key elements were present. Neither discharge letter score nor single key elements correlated with 30-day or 90-day readmission rate. Discharge letter score was not associated with time to readmission when adjusted for a range of patient characteristics and self-rated quality of care transitions.Conclusion: Discharge letter score is not correlated with either 30-day or 90-day readmission rate or with time to readmission at 90 days, when patient characteristics are adjusted for.Implications for the profession and patient care: Written discharge summaries are not enough to facilitate safe care transitions and self-management after discharge. A person-centred approach, providing written and verbal information to patients, encouraging patient involvement soon after discharge, may be needed to avoid readmission.
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- Agram, Nacira, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Introduction to White Noise, Hida-Malliavin Calculus and Applications
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The purpose of these lectures is threefold: We first give a short survey of the Hida white noise calculus, and in this context we introduce the Hida-Malliavin derivative as a stochastic gradient with values in the Hida stochastic distribution space (S. We show that this Hida-Malliavin derivative defined on L2(FT,P) is a natural extension of the classical Malliavin derivative defined on the subspace D1,2 of L2(P). The Hida-Malliavin calculus allows us to prove new results under weaker assumptions than could be obtained by the classical theory. In particular, we prove the following: (i) A general integration by parts formula and duality theorem for Skorohod integrals, (ii) a generalised fundamental theorem of stochastic calculus, and (iii) a general Clark-Ocone theorem, valid for all F∈L2(FT,P). As applications of the above theory we prove the following: A general representation theorem for backward stochastic differential equations with jumps, in terms of Hida-Malliavin derivatives; a general stochastic maximum principle for optimal control; backward stochastic Volterra integral equations; optimal control of stochastic Volterra integral equations and other stochastic systems.
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- Agram, Nacira, 1987-, et al.
(författare)
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Mean-field backward stochastic differential equations and applications
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper we study the mean-field backward stochastic differential equations (mean-field bsde) of the formdY (t) = −f(t, Y (t), Z(t), K(t, ·), E[ϕ(Y (t), Z(t), K(t, ·))])dt + Z(t)dB(t) + R R0 K(t, ζ)N˜(dt, dζ),where B is a Brownian motion, N˜ is the compensated Poisson random measure. Under some mild conditions, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution triplet (Y, Z, K). It is commonly believed that there is no comparison theorem for general mean-field bsde. However, we prove a comparison theorem for a subclass of these equations.When the mean-field bsde is linear, we give an explicit formula for the first component Y (t) of the solution triplet. Our results are applied to solve a mean-field recursive utility optimization problem in finance.
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