| 1. |
- Kreutz, Joakim, 1973-, et al.
(författare)
-
The East Asian Peace : will it last?
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Debating the East Asian Peace. - Copenhagen : NIAS Press. - 9788776942199 ; , s. 281-296
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 2. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al.
(författare)
-
The surprising decline of international mediation in armed conflicts
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Research & Politics. - : SAGE Publications. - 2053-1680 .- 2053-1680. ; 7:2, s. 1-7
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We identify and investigate a fundamental puzzle in contemporary mediation of armed conflicts. Although the preparedness of international mediators has increased, the proportion of armed conflicts that receive mediation has not increased, but decreased. Using quantitative data on the occurrence of mediation between 1989 and 2013, our analysis suggests that this puzzling contradiction cannot be explained by conflicts being more fragmented, intractable or internationalized. Instead, we argue that the puzzling decline of mediation can be explained by a mismatch between supply and demand in the international mediation ‘market’. Although there are more mediators available, the rise in the number of conflicts involving Islamist armed actors, coupled with increased reliance on terror-listing, especially since 2001, has placed a growing number of conflicts beyond the reach of international mediators. Our findings challenge the conventional belief that the post-Cold War era is characterized by high mediation rates and point to the need to develop the practice of mediation to maintain its relevance in the contemporary conflict landscape.
|
|
| 3. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
-
Leanings and Dealings : Exploring Bias and Trade Leverage in Civil War Mediation by International Organizations
- 2014
-
Ingår i: International Negotiation. - Leiden : Brill Academic Publishers. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 19:2, s. 315-342
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two characteristics of mediators – bias and leverage – are discussed intensively in the research on international mediation. However, whereas bias and leverage have been examined in mediation by states, relatively little is known about their role in mediation by international organizations (ios). This study provides new ways of conceptualizing io bias and leverage and utilizes unique data to measure the impact of io bias and leverage on mediation outcomes. Exploring all cases of civil war mediation by ios in the period 1975–2004, we find that ios where member states provide support to both sides in a conflict outperform ios whose member states remain disinterested. ios with significant trade leverage also increase the likelihood of mediation success. The study demonstrates that ios rarely have a neutral relationship to civil war combatants, that mediation by ios is laden with member state interests, and that such interests shape outcomes.
|
|
| 4. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
-
In the Streets and at the Table : Civil Society Coordination during Peace Negotiations
- 2020
-
Ingår i: International Negotiation. - : Brill. - 1382-340X .- 1571-8069. ; 25:2, s. 225-251
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- When bringing armed conflicts to a peaceful end, the inclusion of civil society in peacemaking is a vital task. However, whereas previous research on civil society inclusion has made significant advancements, surprisingly little attention has been paid to analyzing how civil resistance and mass action may interact with more elite-driven approaches during peace processes. This study addresses this research gap by examining the interplay between elite and mass-based civil society approaches in three different peace processes in civil wars in Africa in the post-Cold War period: Liberia, the Central African Republic (CAR), and Burundi. We advance the literature by developing a framework that focuses on coordination of these different efforts and we explore this interplay empirically. With this study, we aim to broaden the research agenda, allowing for future synergies at the research frontier of mass action and the inclusion of civil society in peace processes.
|
|
| 5. |
- Svensson, Isak, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
-
Mediation and peace agreements
- 2014
-
Ingår i: SIPRI yearbook. - Oxford : Oxford University Press. - 9780198712596 ; , s. 43-55
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 6. |
- Aggestam, Karin, et al.
(författare)
-
Where Are the Women in Peace Mediation?
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Gendering Diplomacy and International Negotiation. - Cham : Palgrave Macmillan. - 9783319586816 ; , s. 149-168
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Karakus, Dogukan Cansin, et al.
(författare)
-
Between the Bombs : Exploring Partial Ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War, 2011–2017
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Terrorism and Political Violence. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0954-6553 .- 1556-1836. ; 32:4, s. 681-700
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Previous research on ceasefires in armed conflicts has primarily focused on the aggregated country-level of analysis. By contrast, this article contributes by examining the local-level dynamics of local ceasefire arrangements. In particular, this study examines a novel set of 106 local-level ceasefire arrangements in the Syrian Civil War, reached between the years 2011 to 2017. Most (72 percent), but not all, of the ceasefire arrangements were respected during the stipulated time period. We argue that informal and domestic peacemaking should outperform formal and external approaches in managing conflicts with multiple rebel groups, ongoing violence, and different fronts such as in Syria. We find that the presence of insider mediators (“insider-partial”) as well as confidence-building measures between the belligerents are positively associated with successful ceasefire arrangements, whereas explanations emphasized by previous research—external third-party mediation as well as various indicators of quality of agreement—fail to explain outcomes of ceasefires. Yet, we also find some evidence indicative of a selection effect in that external mediators are associated with more difficult conflict situations. The study of local ceasefires in the Syrian Civil War can stimulate further examinations of the micro-dynamics of peacemaking in civil wars, including the causes and consequences of local ceasefires.
|
|
| 9. |
- Lundgren, Magnus, 1976, et al.
(författare)
-
Local Ceasefires and De-escalation : Evidence From the Syrian Civil War
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Journal of Conflict Resolution. - : Sage Publications. - 0022-0027 .- 1552-8766. ; 67:7-8, s. 1350-1375
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Local ceasefire agreements are prevalent in modern civil wars, but we know little about their impact. This study analyzes geo-referenced data on 145 local ceasefire agreements declared during the Syrian Civil War, 2011-2019, exploring their short- and long-term effects on the intensity of armed violence. Drawing on scholarship on gradual confidence-building processes, we theorize the conditions under which local ceasefire agreements may generate trust and reduce conflict intensity. Using interrupted time-series analysis and spatial panel regression, we examine factors relating to the design and strategic context of ceasefire agreements. We find that local ceasefire agreements can trigger both escalation and de-escalation in the short term. De-escalatory outcomes are more likely in the long-term, when ceasefire signatories share a history of previous interaction, and when ceasefires are implemented in a stepwise fashion. We also find evidence of spatial diffusion: local ceasefire agreements in one area reduce conflict intensity in neighboring areas.
|
|
| 10. |
- Nilsson, Desirée, et al.
(författare)
-
The Intractability of Islamist Insurgencies : Islamist Rebels and the Recurrence of Civil War
- 2021
-
Ingår i: International Studies Quarterly. - : Oxford University Press. - 0020-8833 .- 1468-2478. ; 65:3, s. 620-632
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There is a large research field focusing on the recurrence of civil wars, yet this literature has omitted to seriously consider religious dimensions and ideational features of armed conflicts. To address this gap, we provide the first global study exploring whether, and why, Islamist civil wars—armed conflicts fought over self-proclaimed Islamist aspirations—are more or less likely to recur compared to other conflicts. We argue that civil wars fought over Islamist claims are more likely to relapse because the ideational features of these conflicts increase the uncertainty regarding the capabilities of the warring actors in terms of the extent and nature of transnational support that may be forthcoming, for rebels as well as the government. In line with our argument, we find that Islamist civil wars are significantly less likely to be terminated and more likely to recur once ended. Thus, our results demonstrate that Islamist civil wars represent a particular challenge with regard to the goal of achieving durable peace.
|
|
