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- Berg, Lennart
(författare)
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Age distribution, saving and consumption in Sweden
- 1996
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper focuses on an empirical analysis of the dependency between age structure and aggregate consumption and the composition of aggregate savings. In a long-run consumption function of life cycle type, different demographic variables have a conclusive, statistically significant effect. In investigating the link between demographic variables and the composition of aggregate savings, a simple simultaneous model is used, and a saving function and a house price equation are estimated. The result even here is that age composition matters for house price and savings. This conclusion is also made visible by a simulation experiment. Finally is the model used to ascertain the effect on the recent Swedish tax reform on savings.
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| 5. |
- Berg, Lennart
(författare)
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Age distribution, saving and consumption in Sweden
- 1996
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This paper focuses on an empirical analysis of the dependency between age structure and aggregate consumption and the composition of aggregate savings. In a long-run consumption function of life cycle type, different demographic variables have a conclusiv
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- Berg, Lennart, et al.
(författare)
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Consumer confidence and consumption in Sweden
- 1996
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The role of confidence indices in explaining consumption growth in Sweden during the period 1975-94 is analysed in this paper. We first analysed which variables influence the levels of the confidence indices. Two important such factors are found to be changes in real interest rates and changes in the inflation rate. Of the two forward-looking indices considered, the one regarding the personal financial situation is found to be more closely related to changes in consumption than the index regarding the general economic situation. The latter has no additional information content in the presence of the former. In a crude analysis the personal financial situation index explains about 37 % of the variance in the growth rate of consumption. The index has an important significant effect even in the presence of other vari-ables in the two types of consumption models that are considered, an Euler equation and a solved-out consumption model. In the latter model, the confidence index increases the ex-plained part of the variance in consumption growth from about 0.69 to 0.76. The real after-tax interest rate and the change in the inflation rate are important determinants of consumption. Financial wealth is more important than housing wealth and changes in debt also influence consumption. The solved-out consumption model is able to reflect the Swedish boom-to-bust cycle in consumption remarkably well.
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- Berg, Lennart, et al.
(författare)
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Consumer confidence and consumption in Sweden
- 1996
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The role of confidence indices in explaining consumption growth in Sweden during the period 1975-94 is analysed in this paper. We first analysed which variables influence the levels of the confidence indices. Two important such factors are found to be cha
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- Berg, Lennart
(författare)
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Deterministic seasonal volatility in a small and integrated stock market : the case of Sweden
- 2000
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Using daily data for the Swedish stock market for almost the last two decades no distinct and firm deterministic seasonal pattern for the conditional volatility for the Swedish stock market has been found. The daily turnover in the Swedish stock market has an impact on and eliminates to some extent seasonal patterns in conditional volatility. The daily turnover is a proxy variable used to test the mixture distribution model. According to this model the conditional variance of returns will display a GARCH-pattern of behaviour if the number of trades on the stock market during a day are serially correlated. We can also conclude that a feedback from the US stock market to the conditional volatility in the Swedish market exists, and trading days particularly after holidays has a positive impact on the conditional volatility. The test of the model’s mean equation indicates that the Swedish stock market seems to become more and more information efficient, at least in its weak form, if the 1990’s are compared with the 1980’s.
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