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1.
  • Marchesi, Silvia, et al. (författare)
  • Effect of mechanical ventilation versus spontaneous breathing on abdominal edema and inflammation in ARDS : an experimental porcine model.
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: BMC Pulmonary Medicine. - 1471-2466 .- 1471-2466. ; 20:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Mechanical ventilation (MV), compared to spontaneous breathing (SB), has been found to increase abdominal edema and inflammation in experimental sepsis. Our hypothesis was that in primary acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) MV would enhance inflammation and edema in the abdomen.METHODS: Thirteen piglets were randomized into two groups (SB and MV) after the induction of ARDS by lung lavage and 1 h of injurious ventilation. 1. SB: continuous positive airway pressure 15 cmH2O, fraction of inspired oxygen (FIO2) 0.5 and respiratory rate (RR) maintained at about 40 cycles min- 1 by titrating remifentanil infusion. 2. MV: volume control, tidal volume 6 ml kg- 1, positive end-expiratory pressure 15 cmH2O, RR 40 cycles min- 1, FIO2 0.5.MAIN OUTCOMES: abdominal edema, assessed by tissues histopathology and wet-dry weight; abdominal inflammation, assessed by cytokine concentration in tissues, blood and ascites, and tissue histopathology.RESULTS: The groups did not show significant differences in hemodynamic or respiratory parameters. Moreover, edema and inflammation in the abdominal organs were similar. However, blood IL6 increased in the MV group in all vascular beds (p < 0.001). In addition, TNFα ratio in blood increased through the lungs in MV group (+ 26% ± 3) but decreased in the SB group (- 17% ± 3).CONCLUSIONS: There were no differences between the MV and SB group for abdominal edema or inflammation. However, the systemic increase in IL6 and the TNFα increase through the lungs suggest that MV, in this model, was harmful to the lungs.
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2.
  • Abujrais, Sandy, et al. (författare)
  • A sensitive method detecting trace levels of levonorgestrel using LC-HRMS.
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Contraception. - 0010-7824 .- 1879-0518. ; 100:3, s. 247-249
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVE: To develop a high resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS) method to quantify levonorgestrel (LNG) in serum.STUDY DESIGN: Levonorgestrel was extracted using solid phase extraction and measured using liquid chromatography (LC) HRMS.RESULTS: Low limit of quantification (LLOQ) was 25pg/mL and low limit of detection (LLOD) was 12.5pg/mL. Precision and accuracy bias were<10%. LNG in serum samples from Mirena® users ranged between 37 to 219pg/mL (n=12). In eight out of 22 patients with suspected intrauterine device (IUD) expulsion LNG was detected (26 to 1272pg/mL).CONCLUSION: A sensitive, fast and simple LC-HRMS method was developed to detect trace levels of LNG.
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3.
  • Adamsson, Viola, et al. (författare)
  • Role of a prudent breakfast in improving cardiometabolic risk factors in subjects with hypercholesterolemia : a randomized controlled trial
  • ????
  • Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt)abstract
    • Background & Aims: It is unclear whether advising a prudent breakfast alone is sufficient to improve blood lipids and cardiometabolic risk factors in overweight hypercholesterolemic subjects.Methods: The aim of the present study was to investigate whether a prudent low-fat breakfast (PB) rich in dietary fiber lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and other cardiometabolic risk factors in subjects with elevated LDL-cholesterol levels. In a parallel, controlled, 12-week study, 79 healthy overweight subjects (all regular breakfast eaters) were randomly allocated to a group that received a PB based on Nordic foods provided ad libitum or a control group that consumed their usual breakfast. The PB was in accordance with national and Nordic nutrition recommendations and included oat bran porridge with low-fat milk or yogurt, bilberry or lingonberry jam, whole grain bread, low-fat spread, poultry or fatty fish, and fruit.Results: No differences were found in LDL-C, blood lipids, body weight, or glucose metabolism, but SAD, plasma CRP, and TNF-R2 were lower during PB compared with controls (p<0.05). In the overall diet, PB increased dietary fiber and b-glucan compared with controls (p<0.05).Conclusions: Advising a prudent breakfast for 3 months did not influence blood lipids, body weight, or glucose metabolism but reduced markers of visceral fat and inflammation. 
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4.
  • Adamsson, Viola, et al. (författare)
  • Role of a prudent breakfast in improving cardiometabolic risk factors in subjects with hypercholesterolemia A randomized controlled trial
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Clinical Nutrition. - 0261-5614 .- 1532-1983. ; 34:1, s. 20-26
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND & AIMS:It is unclear whether advising a prudent breakfast alone is sufficient to improve blood lipids and cardiometabolic risk factors in overweight hypercholesterolemic subjects. The aim of this study was to investigate whether a prudent low-fat breakfast (PB) rich in dietary fiber lowers low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and other cardiometabolic risk factors in subjects with elevated LDL-cholesterol levels.METHODS:In a parallel, controlled, 12-week study, 79 healthy overweight subjects (all regular breakfast eaters) were randomly allocated to a group that received a PB based on Nordic foods provided ad libitum or a control group that consumed their usual breakfast. The primary outcome was plasma LDL-C. Secondary outcomes were other blood lipids, body weight, sagittal abdominal diameter (SAD), glucose tolerance, insulin sensitivity and inflammation markers (C-reactive protein [CRP] and tumor necrosis factor receptor-2 [TNF-R2]), and blood pressure. The PB was in accordance with national and Nordic nutrition recommendations and included oat bran porridge with low-fat milk or yogurt, bilberry or lingonberry jam, whole grain bread, low-fat spread, poultry or fatty fish, and fruit.RESULTS:No differences were found in LDL-C, other blood lipids, body weight, or glucose metabolism, but SAD, plasma CRP, and TNF-R2 decreased more during PB compared with controls (p < 0.05). In the overall diet, PB increased dietary fiber and β-glucan compared with controls (p < 0.05).CONCLUSIONS:Advising a prudent breakfast for 3 months did not influence blood lipids, body weight, or glucose metabolism but reduced markers of visceral fat and inflammation. The trial was registered in the Current Controlled Trials database (http://www.controlled-trials.com); International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 84550872.
5.
  • Ahlström, J. Zebialowicz, et al. (författare)
  • Synthetic surfactant with a recombinant surfactant protein C analogue improves lung function and attenuates inflammation in a model of acute respiratory distress syndrome in adult rabbits
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Respiratory Research. - BMC. - 1465-9921 .- 1465-993X. ; 20
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • AimIn acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) damaged alveolar epithelium, leakage of plasma proteins into the alveolar space and inactivation of pulmonary surfactant lead to respiratory dysfunction. Lung function could potentially be restored with exogenous surfactant therapy, but clinical trials have so far been disappointing. These negative results may be explained by inactivation and/or too low doses of the administered surfactant. Surfactant based on a recombinant surfactant protein C analogue (rSP-C33Leu) is easy to produce and in this study we compared its effects on lung function and inflammation with a commercial surfactant preparation in an adult rabbit model of ARDS.MethodsARDS was induced in adult New Zealand rabbits by mild lung-lavages followed by injurious ventilation (V-T 20m/kg body weight) until P/F ratio<26.7kPa. The animals were treated with two intratracheal boluses of 2.5mL/kg of 2% rSP-C33Leu in DPPC/egg PC/POPG, 50:40:10 or poractant alfa (Curosurf (R)), both surfactants containing 80mg phospholipids/mL, or air as control. The animals were subsequently ventilated (V-T 8-9m/kg body weight) for an additional 3h and lung function parameters were recorded. Histological appearance of the lungs, degree of lung oedema and levels of the cytokines TNF alpha IL-6 and IL-8 in lung homogenates were evaluated.ResultsBoth surfactant preparations improved lung function vs. the control group and also reduced inflammation scores, production of pro-inflammatory cytokines, and formation of lung oedema to similar degrees. Poractant alfa improved compliance at 1h, P/F ratio and PaO2 at 1.5h compared to rSP-C33Leu surfactant.ConclusionThis study indicates that treatment of experimental ARDS with synthetic lung surfactant based on rSP-C33Leu improves lung function and attenuates inflammation.
6.
  • Ahlström, Tommy, et al. (författare)
  • Correlation between plasma calcium, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and the metabolic syndrome (MetS) in a community-based cohort of men and women
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Clinical Endocrinology. - 0300-0664 .- 1365-2265. ; 71:5, s. 673-678
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • CONTEXT: In recent years, an association has been noted between several abnormalities that characterize the metabolic syndrome (MetS) and primary hyperparathyroidism (pHPT). These abnormalities include dyslipidaemia, obesity, insulin resistance and hypertension. The correlations between plasma calcium, parathyroid hormone (PTH) and the variables in the MetS in a normal population are still unclear.OBJECTIVE: To describe correlations between plasma calcium and PTH and the various abnormalities present in the MetS in a healthy population.DESIGN: We studied 1016 healthy individuals from the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) population of 70 years old, by means of plasma analyses of calcium, PTH, creatinine, lipids, insulin and glucose, as well as by standardized blood pressure measurements. Further, body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference were determined.RESULTS: The more National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) criteria for the MetS that were met, the higher the s-PTH and albumin-corrected s-calcium. Further, positive correlations between plasma calcium and BMI (P = 0.0003), waist circumference (P = 0.0009) and insulin resistance (P = 0.079) were found. PTH and BMI (P < 0.0001), waist circumference (P < 0.0001), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.0034), diastolic blood pressure (P = 0.0008), serum triglycerides (P = 0.0003) and insulin resistance (P = 0.0003) were positively correlated, whereas serum high density lipoproteins (HDL) (P = 0.036) and PTH were negatively correlated.CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that PTH correlates with several of the metabolic factors included in the MetS within a normocalcaemic population. In addition, individuals with mild pHPT present significantly more NCEP criteria for MetS. We postulate that increased levels of PTH in pHPT may be associated with the increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality seen in pHPT.
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7.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1345-1422
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined.FINDINGS: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks.INTERPRETATION: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade.FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
8.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1260-1344
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI).METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate.FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally.INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
9.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1211-1259
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016.METHODS: We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228).INTERPRETATION: The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-to-date information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
10.
  • Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet. - 0140-6736. ; 390:10100, s. 1084-1150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016.METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone.FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016.INTERPRETATION: Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and the National Institute on Aging and the National Institute of Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health.
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