| 1. |
- Andersson, Angelica, et al.
(författare)
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Long-distance mode choice estimation on joint travel survey and mobile phone network data
- 2024
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Ingår i: Sammanställning av referat från Transportforum 2024. - Linköping : Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut. ; , s. 91-92
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Both survey data and mobile phone network data are associated with benefits and limitations. Mobile phone network data is limited in its lack of ground truth for the bus and car split, in the lack of socio-economic information about the traveller, as well as in the lack of information about trip purpose. Survey data on the other hand nowadays often has too few observations to obtain significance in important parameters, and it is unlikely that they capture a representative sample of the population. In this paper we investigate to what extent combining the two data sources for mode choice demand model estimation can mitigate the challenges present when only using a single data source, as well as to what extent the estimation can be improved by adding variables unique to the survey data. We also provide recommendations for data collection and combination for future mode choice demand models and analyse policy implications of the estimated results. We show that in our case the business cost parameter becomes insignificant when basing the estimation on survey data only. The business cost parameter is important to compute values of travel times which are relevant for social cost benefit analyses. A benefit of combining the two data sources is that we can both identify latent class variables which capture the correct business group in the latent class structure of the mobile phone network data, and simultaneously obtain better estimates of those variables based on observations from the survey data. Most of the elasticity results in this paper are on par with previous studies; however our results suggest higher cross-elasticities in response to train travel time than what has previously been observed, which could have implications for the social valuation of investments in high speed rail. In this paper we have shown that the proposed method of data combination is indeed valid, and that by combining the two data sources we can mitigate the limitations of each separate data source and thus maintain good quality mode choice demand forecasting models, even in the face of declining survey response rates.
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| 2. |
- Andersson, Angelica, et al.
(författare)
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Long-distance mode choice model estimation using mobile phone network data
- 2022
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Ingår i: Journal of Choice Modelling. - : Elsevier. - 1755-5345. ; 42
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this paper we develop two methods for the use of mobile phone data to support the estimation of long-distance mode choice models. Both methods are based on logit formulations in which we define likelihood functions and use maximum likelihood estimation. Mobile phone data consists of information about a sequence of antennae that have detected each phone, so the mode choice is not actually observed. In the first trip-based method, the mode of each trip is inferred by a separate procedure, and the estimation process is then straightforward. However, since it is not always possible to determine the mode choice with certainty (although it is possible in the majority of cases), this method might give biased results. In our second antenna-based method we therefore base the likelihood function on the sequences of antennae that have detected the phones. The estimation aims at finding a parameter vector in the mode choice model that would explain the observed sequences best. The main challenge with the antenna-based method is the need for detailed resolution of the available data. In this paper we show the derivation of the two methods, that they coincide in case of certainty about the chosen mode and discuss the validity of assumptions and their advantages and disadvantages. Furthermore, we apply the first trip-based method to empirical data and compare the results of two different ways of implementing it.
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| 3. |
- Andersson, Angelica, et al.
(författare)
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Mode Choice Latent Class Estimation on Mobile Network Data
- 2024
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Ingår i: SSRN Electronic Journal. - : Elsevier BV. - 1556-5068.
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this paper we use a nested latent class logit specification to define and estimate a large-scale mode choice demand forecasting model. We estimate this model based on mobile phone network data translated to roughly 100 000 long-distance trips within Sweden, achieving convergence of the model and credible parameter estimates. We develop methods to address two problems stemming from the nature of this data: the difficulties of distinguishing bus trips from car trips (since they share the same infrastructure) and distinguishing business from private trips (since trip purpose is unknown). To address the first issue, we estimate a nested logit model with an artificial nest that accounts for the differences in utility between bus and car. To address the latter issue, we estimate a latent class model, identifying classes of trips interpreted as private and business trips. Addressing these two issues substantially improves model fit.
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| 4. |
- Andersson, Angelica
(författare)
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Mode choice modelling of long-distance passenger transport based on mobile phone network data
- 2022
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Reliable forecasting models are needed to achieve the climate related goals in the face of increasing transport demand. Such models can predict the long-term behavioural response to policy interventions, including infrastructure investments, and thus provide valuable pre-dictions for decision makers. Contemporary forecasting models are mainly based on national travel surveys. Unfortunately, the response rates of such surveys have steadily declined, implying that the respondents become less representative of the whole population. A particular weakness is that it is likely that respondents with a high valuation of time are less willing to respond to surveys (because they have less time available for such), and therefore there is a high chance that they are underrepresented among the respondents. The valuation of time plays an important role for the cost benefit analyses of public policies including transport investments, and there is no reliable way of controlling for this uneven sampling of time preferences. Fortunately, there is simultaneously an increase in the number of signals sent between mobile phones and network antennae, and research has now reached the point where it is possible to determine not only the travel destination but also the travel mode based on mobile phone network antennae connections. The aim of this thesis is to investigate if and how mobile phone network data can be used to estimate transportation mode choice demand models that can be used for forecasting and planning. Key challenges with using this data source in the context of mode choice models are identified and met. The identified challenges include uncertainty in the choice variable, the difficulty to distinguish car and bus trips, and the lack of information about the trip purpose. In the first paper we propose three possible model formulations and analyse how the uncertainty in the choice outcome variable would play a role in the different model formulations. We also conclude that it is indeed possible to estimate mode choice demand models based on mobile phone network data, with good results in terms of behavioural interpretability and significance. In the second paper we estimate models using a nested logit structure to account for the difficulty in separating bus and car, and a latent class model specification to meet the challenge of having an unknown trip purpose.
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| 5. |
- Bastian, Anne, et al.
(författare)
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Explaining “peak car” with economic variables
- 2016
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Ingår i: Transportation Research Part A. - : Elsevier. - 0965-8564 .- 1879-2375. ; 2016:88, s. 236-250
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Many western countries have seen a plateau and subsequent decrease of car travel during the 21st century. What has generated particular interest and debate is the statement that the development cannot be explained by changes in traditional explanatory factors such as GDP and fuel prices. Instead, it has been argued, the observed trends are indications of substantial changes in lifestyles, preferences and attitudes to car travel; what we are experiencing is not just a temporary plateau, but a true “peak car”. However, this study shows that the traditional variables GDP and fuel price are in fact sufficient to explain the observed trends in car traffic in all the countries included in our study: the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Sweden and (to a large extent) Australia and Germany. We argue that the importance of the fuel price increases in the early 2000s has been underappreciated in the studies that shaped the later debate. Results also indicate that GDP elasticities tend to decrease with rising GDP, and that fuel price elasticities tend to increase at high price levels and during periods of rapid price increases.
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| 6. |
- Bastian, Anne, et al.
(författare)
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Peak Car for urban Swedish men?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Proceedings of Symposium of the European Association for Research in Transportation (hEART),September 10, 2014 – September 12, 2014, Leeds, UK.
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We study long-term trends in regional car travel demand within and across socio-demographic groups in Sweden, using cross-sectional data from National Travel Surveys, spanning the period from 1978 to 2011. We find that the reduction in per-adult driving in Sweden mainly occurs among urban men. Urban men of all income groups reduced their driving for both commuting and non-commuting trips in conjunction with rising gasoline prices, which may have contributed to this development. We find that driving among those socio-demographic groups, who have better opportunities to reduce their driving, and driving for discretionary rather than commute purposes is being reduced over time. Sweden is ranked among the most gender-equal countries in the world; yet we find a substantial remaining gender gap in the share of adults driving a car on an average day, even when controlling for other socio-economic differences.
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| 7. |
- Bastian, Anne, et al.
(författare)
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The city as a driver of new mobility patterns, cycling and gender equality : Travel behaviour trends in Stockholm 1985–2015
- 2018
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Ingår i: Travel Behaviour & Society. - : Elsevier Ltd. - 2214-367X .- 2214-3688. ; 13, s. 71-87
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper analyses changes in individual travel behaviour in Stockholm County over 30 years, using three large cross-sectional travel survey data sets. It shows that travel patterns have diverged over time between city, suburban and rural residents. The trends in travel behaviour that we find are consistent with changes in the labour market, ICT use, land-use and transport policy, gender equality, and population composition trends. The inner city has become increasingly attractive: the share of trips is to the inner city is increasing for all purposes, socio-economic groups, and residential locations. The reduction of car traffic in response to the introduction of the congestion charges in 2006 is more than compensated by an increase in bicycle and transit trips to the inner city. Travel times by car are increasing in the city, although the car traffic volumes have decreased. The travel behaviour gender gap has closed completely in the inner city, but not further out in the region or in the rest of the country. Understanding long term trends in travel behaviour in different population segments, and the context under which they occur, helps to understand how the conditions, opportunities and constraints for different population segments are changing, which is key for transport policy and land-use planning. Since the societal trends driving travel behaviour in Stockholm and Sweden are much the same in many cities and countries, the findings are of general relevance.
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| 8. |
- Batley, Richard, et al.
(författare)
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New appraisal values of travel time saving and reliability in Great Britain
- 2019
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Ingår i: Transportation. - : Springer. - 0049-4488 .- 1572-9435. ; 46:3, s. 583-621
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper provides an overview of the study Provision of market research for value of time savings and reliability' undertaken by the Arup/ITS Leeds/Accent consortium for the UK Department for Transport (DfT). The paper summarises recommendations for revised national average values of in-vehicle travel time savings, reliability and time-related quality (e.g. crowding and congestion), which were developed using willingness-to-pay (WTP) methods, for a range of modes, and covering both business and non-work travel purposes. The paper examines variation in these values by characteristics of the traveller and trip, and offers insights into the uncertainties around the values, especially through the calculation of confidence intervals. With regards to non-work, our recommendations entail an increase of around 50% in values for commute, but a reduction of around 25% for other non-workrelative to previous DfT WebTAG' guidance. With regards to business, our recommendations are based on WTP, and thus represent a methodological shift away from the cost saving approach (CSA) traditionally used in WebTAG. These WTP-based business values show marked variation by distance; for trips of less than 20miles, values are around 75% lower than previous WebTAG values; for trips of around 100miles, WTP-based values are comparable to previous WebTAG; and for longer trips still, WTP-based values exceed those previously in WebTAG.
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| 9. |
- Berry, Carl, 1994-
(författare)
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Income and Fuel Price Elasticities of Car Use
- 2022
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Understanding how car travel and ownership respond to income and fuel prices, and how that response varies between households is crucial for car use policies and forecasts. This thesis, consisting of two papers, aims to investigate this by estimating the intemporal income and fuel price elasticities of car use using micro registry panel data on all Swedish households from 1998 to 2018. In Paper I, the income and fuel price elasticities of vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT) is estimated for all Swedish households using a linear fixed effects model. In order to investigate how different groups respond, the elasticities are estimated by income group and municipality type. The effect of income and fuel prices on VKT is largest in the middle of the income distribution but is relatively stable across municipality types. The effect of fuel prices on VKT is largest in densely populated municipalities compared to rural municipalities. Moreover, it is shown that the income elasticity is underestimated if income variable is misspecified. Paper II utilises a discrete-continuous model accounting for the effect of income and fuel prices on car ownership. It is shown that income impacts car ownership and VKT conditional on car ownership of similar magnitude, while fuel prices primarily impact VKT conditional on car ownership. Furthermore, we also estimate the model on six partially overlapping sample periods and find that the income elasticity has decreased over time, while the absolute fuel price elasticity increased up until the early 2010s and decreased thereafter.
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| 10. |
- Berry, Carl, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling the effect of income and fuel prices on the joint choice of car ownership and use : a panel data approach
- 2024
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Ingår i: Sammanställning av referat från Transportforum 2024. - Linköping : Statens väg- och transportforskningsinstitut. ; , s. 60-61
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Understanding how households’ car ownership and use respond to changes in income and fuel price is essential for travel demand forecasts and the design of car use policies. The literature estimating the effect of income and fuel prices on car use have almost exclusively studied the decision of owning a car and how much to drive as two separate choices. This may potentially result in the failure to capture the full response of the household or in model misspecification. In this paper, we estimate the income and fuel price elasticities of the joint decision of car ownership and car travel on household registry micro panel data using a discrete-continuous model. We use a correlated random effects approach to control for unobservable household heterogeneity. Our discrete-continuous model allows us to estimate the effect of income and fuel price on car ownership, car travel conditional on car ownership, and the total effect on vehicle kilometres travelled (VKT). We use a register database covering the Swedish population from the years 1999 to 2018, containing 96.7 million observations. The database includes socio-economic information on all registered adult Swedes, and information about all privately owned cars.We find an income elasticity of VKT 0.4, half the elasticity comes from the impact of income on car ownership and the other half from the car travel conditional on car ownership. Hence, estimating the income elasticity of VKT on only car owners as earlier studies on micro panel data studies have done can underestimate the elasticity.The model yields the fuel price elasticity of VKT -0.72 which is larger than has been found by meta-studies, but only slightly larger than the previous micro panel data studies and the previous discrete-continuous studies. We find that fuel prices primarily impact car travel and has a smaller impact on car ownership.
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