| 1. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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An examination of the implementation of risk based approaches in military operations
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Military Studies. - Helsinki : National Defense University, Finland and Finnish Society of Military Sciences. - 1799-3350 .- 2242-3524. ; 5:2, s. 1-27
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Today several nations utilise risk based approaches in military planning. However, the discussion on limitations with the approaches in regard to aspects such as uncertainties, the nature of the threat and risk to civilians is limited.The aim of this work is to identify important challenges when applying risk based approaches to military activity. This article discusses risk based approaches in general and their military applications. Five generic quality requirements on risk analysis are presented from research in risk philosophy. Two military application areas for risk analysis: military intelligence, and risk management in legal assessments are analysed in relation to the presented quality requirements on risk analysis.From the analysis it is clear that risk analysis is an integral part of the decision-making analysis and cannot be separated in time, space or organisationally from the decision-making process in general. Defining the scenario to analyse, including the time span, is a central task in risk analysis and will affect every aspect of the risk estimation. Therefore, the principles for scenario definition must be communicated and continuously updated throughout the organisation. Handling the uncertainties throughout the process is also important, especially if the aim is a resilient military system.
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| 2. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Comparison between different survivability measures on a generic frigate
- 2015
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Ingår i: International Journal of Maritime Engineering. - 1479-8751 .- 1740-0716. ; 157:A2, s. A125-A134
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Choosing suitable survivability measures is a demanding task that has to start early in the ship design process. Throughout the design process there is a need for compromises that will define and sometimes limit future operations or capabilities. In this study generic survivability measures are compared. The study also examines the sensitivity of the calculated probabilities to changes in the threat description. The result shows that it is important to investigate the total effect of a hit over a set of relevant ship functions defined for example by survivability levels. The calculations for different threat definitions show that the changes in survivability are substantial when the threat definition is changed. Moreover, the effects of different hit assumptions differ between weapon types. This must be treated as an uncertainty which also should be reflected in the output and weighted into the decisions made, based on the survivability analysis.
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| 3. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Minimising Risk from Armed Attacks : The Effects of the Nato Naval Ship Code
- 2011. - 1
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Ingår i: Stockholm Contributions in Military-Technology 2010. - Stockholm : Försvarshögskolan. - 9789186137076 ; 2, s. 65-81
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The NATO Standardization Agency (NSA) is proposing a Naval Ship Code (NSC) that can be applied to surface naval vessels and other vessels operated by the armed forces or agencies of a state. The NSC is optional and based on, and benchmarked against, conventions and resolutions of the International Maritime Organisation.The NSC cover areas such as ship controllability, engineering systems, fire safety, evacuation, communications and navigation. The code does not include measures specifically designed to address the effects of armed attack.The covered areas in NSC are however also very important when the effects from armed attack is to be minimised. This work investigates how the NSC will effect, and interact with, measures to ensure survivability under attack. Survivability is here seen as a function of the ships susceptibility, vulnerabilityand recoverability. Based on two case studies this paper exemplifies the effect of the NSC on the vessels total safety. The case studies presented are ballistic protection on smaller naval vessels and bridge configuration to minimize effects of attacks.
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| 4. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment for Integrating Survivability and Safety Measures on Naval Ships
- 2012
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Ingår i: International Journal of Maritime Engineering. - 1479-8751 .- 1740-0716. ; 154:A1, s. A21-A30
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Conflicts of today are characterized by both traditional and irregular tactics and by non-state actors making innovative use of modern technologies. These conditions set new demands on naval ships. The aim of this investigation is to describe how, based on probabilistic risk assessment, the concept of operation for a naval ship can be turned into safety scenarios to be used in the evaluation of risk. In this investigation, civilian state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic risk assessment are merged with the specific demands of naval ships. Relevant aspects of safety culture, codes, regulations and rules are analysed with respect to requirements on safety scenarios, and military operational research with respect to modelling military systems. The results show that the scenarios must have calculable probability and must be adapted to the vessel in question. Results from simulations show that modelling operational tasks is one way to support experts in the definition of safety scenarios.
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| 5. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974, et al.
(författare)
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Quantitative risk analysis – Ship security analysis for effective risk control options
- 2013
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Ingår i: Safety Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-7535 .- 1879-1042. ; 58:1, s. 98-112
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options.The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding.The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analysed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.
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| 6. |
- Liwång, Hans, 1974-, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security analysis : the effect of ship speed and effective lookout
- 2013
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the ASME 32nd International Conference on Ocean, Offshore and Arctic Engineering (OMAE 2013). - : ASME Press. - 9780791855324
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The threat of piracy to commercial shipping is a concern for the protection and safeguarding of human lives, property and environment. Therefore, ships under piracy threat should follow security measures suggested by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Contact Group on Piracy off the Coast of Somali. It is, therefore, important to choose the proper security measures for the right situation.This study presents a simulation model that can be used for probabilistic risk assessments regarding the operation of commercial ships. This investigation specifically studies the pirate approach phase and quantifies the effect of ship speed and effective lookout. The purpose of introducing probabilistic risk assessment into the analysis of pirate attacks is to meet safety goals more effectively through a well-balanced combination of proactive and reactive measures whilst keeping focus on the intended over all purpose of the particular ship.The study presents collected and documented knowledge regarding pirate capability, intention and likelihood to perform attacks. The knowledge is collected from experts with experience from the situation off the Horn of Africa. The collected information is input to an influence analysis that identifies the network of influences that govern the skiff approach. The simulation model describes piracy characteristics and decision making on the threatened ship, the characteristics and countermeasures of the ship under attack, as well as weather.Based on a comparison with available statistics the overall conclusion of the work is that the threat analysis and the simulation model can quantify and explain how the studied risk control options affect the probability of a successful approach. The result therefore exemplifies how a quantified ship security analysis can support the recommendations in industry guidelines and also enable recommendations that to a greater extent can facilitate an educated decision by the ship operators.
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| 7. |
- Liwång, Hans, et al.
(författare)
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Ship security challenges in high-risk areas : manageable or insurmountable?
- 2015
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Ingår i: WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs (JoMA). - : Springer Berlin/Heidelberg. - 1651-436X .- 1654-1642. ; 14:2, s. 201-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Piracy can lead to risks so high that they, according to the International Maritime Organization, are tolerable only if risk reduction is not practicable or is disproportionate to the benefits achieved. Therefore, there is a need for reducing ship security risks in relation to antagonistic threats such as piracy. The aim of this study is to identify challenges for ship operators when developing their ship security management. Furthermore, this study also investigates two central aspects in the analysis: understanding the threat and understanding how a security threat affects the crew and operation of the ship. It is clear from the analysis that the importance of subjective aspects beyond a ship operators’ direct control is high. This seems to be the fact for all aspects of the risk management process. The situation is also dynamic as the security risk, as well as the risk perception, can change dramatically even though there are no actual operational changes. As a result, the ship security management process is highly iterative and depends on situations on board as well as conditions out of the ship operator’s control. In order to make ship security manageable, the risk management has to put particular focus on methodological understanding, relevant system understanding and well-defined risk acceptance criteria as well as on including all levels of the organization in the risk reduction implementation and on a continuous monitoring.
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| 8. |
- Liwång, Hans
(författare)
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Survivability of an Ocean Patrol Vessels - Analysis approach and uncertainty treatment
- 2015
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Ingår i: Marine Structures. - : Elsevier BV. - 0951-8339 .- 1873-4170. ; 43, s. 1-21
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Military ocean patrol vessels (OPVs) are today an increasingly common type of naval ship. To facilitate the wide range of tasks with small crews, OPVs represent several ship design compromises between, for example, survivability, redundancy and technical endurance, and some of these compromises are new to military ships.The aim of this study is to examine how the design risk control options in relation to survivability, redundancy and technical endurance can be linked to the operational risk in a patrol and surveillance scenario. The ship operation for a generic OPV, including the actions of the threat, is modelled with a Bayesian network describing the scenario and the dependency among different influences.The scenario is described with expert data collected from subject matter experts. The approach includes an analysis of uncertainty using Monte Carlo analysis and numerical derivative analysis.The results show that it is possible to link the performance of specific ship design features to the operational risk. Being able to propagate the epistemic uncertainties through the model is important to understand how the uncertainty in the input affects the output and the output uncertainty for the studied case is small relative to the input uncertainty. The study shows that linking different ship design features for aspects such as survivability, redundancy and technical endurance to the operational risk gives important information for the ship design decision-making process.
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| 9. |
- Uhr, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Once upon a time in Västmanland : the power of narratives or how the “truth” unfolds
- 2016
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Ingår i: ISCRAM 2016 Conference Proceedings. - : ISCRAM. - 2411-3387. - 9788460879848
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- In 2014 a small fire started in a forest in central Sweden. Within a few days it developed into the largest wildfire in Sweden in the last 50 years. As the scale of the fire increased, so did the need for direction and coordination of the resources engaged in the response operation. Both official investigators and the research community have studied the challenges and come up with recommendations for improvements of the Swedish crisis management system. All authors of this paper have been involved in such efforts. This paper is a result of us trying to formulate lessons learnt based on several written reports and official discussions. The development of the narratives constructed by individuals involved in the response, investigators and researchers is analyzed. We conclude that researchers need to pay attention to their own role in this development. Maybe there is a need for a game changer on the methodological side?
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