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- Björk, Jonas, et al.
(författare)
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Commonly used estimates of the genetic contribution to disease are subject to the same fallacies as bad luck estimates
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 34:11, s. 987-992
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The scientific debate following the initial formulation of the “bad luck” hypothesis in cancer development highlighted how measures based on analysis of variance are inappropriately used for risk communication. The notion of “explained” variance is not only used to quantify randomness, but also to quantify genetic and environmental contribution to disease in heritability coefficients. In this paper, we demonstrate why such quantifications are generally as problematic as bad luck estimates. We stress the differences in calculation and interpretation between the heritability coefficient and the population attributable fraction, the estimated fraction of all disease events that would not occur if an intervention could successfully prevent the excess genetic risk. We recommend using the population attributable fraction when communicating results regarding the genetic contribution to disease, as this measure is both more relevant from a public health perspective and easier to understand.
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| 3. |
- Fang, Fang, et al.
(författare)
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Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis among cross-country skiers in Sweden.
- 2016
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Ingår i: European Journal of Epidemiology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0393-2990 .- 1573-7284. ; 31:3, s. 247-253
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A highly increased risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) has been suggested among professional athletes. We aimed to examine whether long distance cross-country skiers have also a higher risk of ALS and whether the increased risk was modified by skiing performance. We followed 212,246 cross-country skiers in the Swedish Vasaloppet cohort and a random selection of 508,176 general Swedes not participating in the Vasaloppet during 1989-2010. The associations between cross-country skiing as well as skiing performance (i.e., type of race, finishing time and number of races) and the consequent risk of ALS were estimated through hazard ratios (HRs) derived from Cox model. During the study, 39 cases of ALS were ascertained among the skiers. The fastest skiers (100-150 % of winner time) had more than fourfold risk of ALS (HR 4.31, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.78-10.4), as compared to skiers that finished at >180 % of winner time. Skiers who participated >4 races during this period had also a higher risk (HR 3.13, 95 % CI 1.37-7.17) than those participated only one race. When compared to the non-skiers, the fastest skiers still had a higher risk (HR 2.08, 95 % CI 1.12-3.84), as skiers who had >4 races (HR 1.88, 95 % CI 1.05-3.35), but those finishing at >180 % of winner time had a lower risk (HR 0.46, 95 % CI 0.24-0.87). In conclusion, long distance cross-country skiing is associated with a higher risk of ALS, but only among the best skiers; recreational skiers appear to have a largely reduced risk.
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- Karampampa, Korinna, et al.
(författare)
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Declining incidence trends for hip fractures have not been accompanied by improvements in lifetime risk or post-fracture survival - A nationwide study of the Swedish population 60 years and older
- 2015
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Ingår i: Bone. - : Elsevier BV. - 8756-3282 .- 1873-2763. ; 78, s. 55-61
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Hip fracture is a common cause of disability and mortality among the elderly. Declining incidence trends have been observed in Sweden. Still, this condition remains a significant public health problem since Sweden has one of the highest incidences worldwide. Yet, no Swedish lifetime risk or survival trends have been presented. By examining how hip fracture incidence, post-fracture survival, as well as lifetime risk have developed between 1995 and 2010 in Sweden, this study aims to establish how the burden hip fractures pose on the elderly changed over time, in order to inform initiatives for improvements of their health. Material and Methods: The entire Swedish population 60 years-old and above was followed between 1987 and 2010 in the National Patient Register and the Cause of Death Register. Annual age-specific hip fracture cumulative incidence was estimated using hospital admissions for hip fractures. Three-month and one-year survival after the first hip fracture were also estimated. Period life table was used to assess lifetime risk of hip fractures occuring from age 60 and above, and the expected mean age of the first hip fracture. Results: The age-specific hip fracture incidence decreased between 1995 and 2010 in all ages up to 94 years, on average by 1% per year. The lifetime risk remained almost stable, between 9% and 11% for men, and between 18% and 20% for women. The expected mean age of a first hip fracture increased by 2.5 years for men and by 2.2 years for women. No improvements over time were observed for the 3-month survival for men, while for women a 1% decrease per year was observed. The 1-year survival slightly increased over time for men (0.4% per year) while no improvement was observed for women. Conclusions: The age-specific hip fracture incidence has decreased overtime. Yet the lifetime risk of a hip fracture has not decreased because life expectancy in the population has increased in parallel. Overall, survival after hip fracture has not improved.
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- Modig, Karin, et al.
(författare)
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Stable or improved health status in the population 65 years and older in Stockholm, Sweden - an 8-year follow-up of self-reported health items
- 2016
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. - : SAGE Publications. - 1403-4948 .- 1651-1905. ; 44:5, s. 480-489
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Previous studies have reached different conclusions about whether health is improving in the ageing population. More studies with narrow age groups analyzed separately for men and women will contribute to the literature. Aim: To describe trends in self-reported indicators of health and health-related quality of life between 2002 and 2010, focusing on differences between gender and age groups. A population-based survey of individuals 65+ in the Stockholm County was used. Results: Prevalence of health problems increased with age both among men and women. Men generally reported having no health problems to a larger extent than women, but the proportions reporting severe problems were similar. The larger picture is one of stability in health-related quality of life, even if several items developed for the better, especially among women. While the proportions reporting no health/functional problems increased for many items, the proportions reporting severe problems remained unchanged among men and improved only for two items among women. Conclusions: Overall, improvements were seen in many of the health-related quality of life items as well as for self-rated health among women. The proportions reporting long-term illness or persistent health problems increased, but fewer seem to be limited in their daily activities by these problems. The stable proportions of poor self-rated health indicates that while health and functioning seem to be improving for the majority of the older population, some groups may be lagging behind. Future studies should pay attention to changes both in the upper and lower ends of the health spectrum.
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- Quintana, Hedley Knewjen, et al.
(författare)
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Comorbidities in relation to fatali of first myocardial infarction
- 2018
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Ingår i: Cardiovascular pathology. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 1054-8807 .- 1879-1336. ; 32, s. 32-37
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Present knowledge concerning potential associations between comorbidities and the fatality of a first myocardial infarction (MI) is limited.Aim: To identify comorbidities in 45-70-year-old individuals who suffered a first MI and died within 7 days in Stockholm County from 1992-1994. In addition, to assess how each of the comorbidities identified, as well as the number of hospitalizations during the 10-year period prior to the MI, was associated with MI fatality.Methods: The data collected on our inception cohort of 1984 first Ml, of which 524 were fatal within 7 days, were primarily self-reported, proxy-reported by questionnaire and/or extracted from comprehensive national registers. Comorbidilies among fatal cases with a prevalence >2% were identified. Risk ratios (with 95% confidence intervals) for the association of Ml fatality with number of prior hospitalizations and specific comorbidities were calculated using binomial regression with log link. A structured review of autopsy reports on fatal cases was performed in order to identify additional indicators of comorbidities.Results: After adjusting for sex, age and disposable income, the number of previous hospitalizations was associated with 7-day Ml fatality. Of the comorbidities identified as prevalent in fatal cases, the following were associated with 7-day fatality in crude analysis: epilepsy, heart failure, stroke, alcoholism, cancer, renal diseases, asthma, psychiatric diseases, diabetes, and rheumatoid arthritis. Indicators of comorbidities identified from autopsy data included a silent MI, severe atherosclerosis of the abdominal aorta, and hepatic steatosis. Adjustments for sex and age (although not possible for epilepsy and alcoholism), did not substantially alter results.Conclusions: Our current findings indicate that in connection with a first MI, particular attention should be paid to those with repeated prior hospitalizations and/or epilepsy, heart failure, stroke, alcoholism, cancer, renal diseases, asthma, psychiatric diseases, diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis.
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| 8. |
- Sampson, Joshua N., et al.
(författare)
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Analysis of Heritability and Shared Heritability Based on Genome-Wide Association Studies for 13 Cancer Types
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Studies of related individuals have consistently demonstrated notable familial aggregation of cancer. We aim to estimate the heritability and genetic correlation attributable to the additive effects of common single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for cancer at 13 anatomical sites. Methods: Between 2007 and 2014, the US National Cancer Institute has generated data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 49 492 cancer case patients and 34 131 control patients. We apply novel mixed model methodology (GCTA) to this GWAS data to estimate the heritability of individual cancers, as well as the proportion of heritability attributable to cigarette smoking in smoking-related cancers, and the genetic correlation between pairs of cancers. Results: GWAS heritability was statistically significant at nearly all sites, with the estimates of array-based heritability, h(l)(2), on the liability threshold (LT) scale ranging from 0.05 to 0.38. Estimating the combined heritability of multiple smoking characteristics, we calculate that at least 24% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 14% to 37%) and 7% (95% CI = 4% to 11%) of the heritability for lung and bladder cancer, respectively, can be attributed to genetic determinants of smoking. Most pairs of cancers studied did not show evidence of strong genetic correlation. We found only four pairs of cancers with marginally statistically significant correlations, specifically kidney and testes (rho = 0.73, SE = 0.28), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and pediatric osteosarcoma (rho = 0.53, SE = 0.21), DLBCL and chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) (rho = 0.51, SE = 0.18), and bladder and lung (rho = 0.35, SE = 0.14). Correlation analysis also indicates that the genetic architecture of lung cancer differs between a smoking population of European ancestry and a nonsmoking Asian population, allowing for the possibility that the genetic etiology for the same disease can vary by population and environmental exposures. Conclusion: Our results provide important insights into the genetic architecture of cancers and suggest new avenues for investigation.
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| 9. |
- Toledano, Mireille B., et al.
(författare)
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An international prospective cohort study of mobile phone users and health (COSMOS) : Factors affecting validity of self-reported mobile phone use
- 2018
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Ingår i: International journal of hygiene and environmental health (Print). - : Elsevier GmbH - Urban und Fischer. - 1438-4639 .- 1618-131X. ; 221:1, s. 1-8
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This study investigates validity of self-reported mobile phone use in a subset of 75 993 adults from the COSMOS cohort study. Agreement between self-reported and operator-derived mobile call frequency and duration for a 3-month period was assessed using Cohen's weighted Kappa (κ). Sensitivity and specificity of both self-reported high (≥10 calls/day or ≥4h/week) and low (≤6 calls/week or <30min/week) mobile phone use were calculated, as compared to operator data. For users of one mobile phone, agreement was fair for call frequency (κ=0.35, 95% CI: 0.35, 0.36) and moderate for call duration (κ=0.50, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.50). Self-reported low call frequency and duration demonstrated high sensitivity (87% and 76% respectively), but for high call frequency and duration sensitivity was lower (38% and 56% respectively), reflecting a tendency for greater underestimation than overestimation. Validity of self-reported mobile phone use was lower in women, younger age groups and those reporting symptoms during/shortly after using a mobile phone. This study highlights the ongoing value of using self-report data to measure mobile phone use. Furthermore, compared to continuous scale estimates used by previous studies, categorical response options used in COSMOS appear to improve validity considerably, most likely by preventing unrealistically high estimates from being reported.
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| 10. |
- Torssander, Jenny, et al.
(författare)
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Four Decades of Educational Inequalities in Hospitalization and Mortality among Older Swedes
- 2016
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 11:3
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The inverse association between education and mortality has grown stronger the last decades in many countries. During the same period, gains in life expectancy have been concentrated to older ages; still, old-age mortality is seldom the focus of attention when analyzing trends in the education-mortality gradient. It is further unknown if increased educational inequalities in mortality are preceded by increased inequalities in morbidity of which hospitalization may be a proxy. Methods Using administrative population registers from 1971 and onwards, education-specific annual changes in the risk of death and hospital admission were estimated with complimentary log-log models. These risk changes were supplemented by estimations of the ages at which 25, 50, and 75% of the population had been hospitalized or died (after age 60). Results The mortality decline among older people increasingly benefitted the well-educated over the less well-educated. This inequality increase was larger for the younger old, and among men. Educational inequalities in the age of a first hospital admission generally followed the development of growing gaps, but at a slower pace than mortality and inequalities did not increase among the oldest individuals. Conclusions Education continues to be a significant predictor of health and longevity into old age. That the increase in educational inequalities is greater for mortality than for hospital admissions (our proxy of overall morbidity) may reflect that well-educated individuals gradually have obtained more possibilities or resources to survive a disease than less well-educated individuals have the last four decades.
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