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Sökning: WFRF:(Ali Osman Francis)

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1.
  • Ademuyiwa, Adesoji O., et al. (författare)
  • Determinants of morbidity and mortality following emergency abdominal surgery in children in low-income and middle-income countries
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: BMJ Global Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 2059-7908. ; 1:4
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Child health is a key priority on the global health agenda, yet the provision of essential and emergency surgery in children is patchy in resource-poor regions. This study was aimed to determine the mortality risk for emergency abdominal paediatric surgery in low-income countries globally.Methods: Multicentre, international, prospective, cohort study. Self-selected surgical units performing emergency abdominal surgery submitted prespecified data for consecutive children aged <16 years during a 2-week period between July and December 2014. The United Nation's Human Development Index (HDI) was used to stratify countries. The main outcome measure was 30-day postoperative mortality, analysed by multilevel logistic regression.Results: This study included 1409 patients from 253 centres in 43 countries; 282 children were under 2 years of age. Among them, 265 (18.8%) were from low-HDI, 450 (31.9%) from middle-HDI and 694 (49.3%) from high-HDI countries. The most common operations performed were appendectomy, small bowel resection, pyloromyotomy and correction of intussusception. After adjustment for patient and hospital risk factors, child mortality at 30 days was significantly higher in low-HDI (adjusted OR 7.14 (95% CI 2.52 to 20.23), p<0.001) and middle-HDI (4.42 (1.44 to 13.56), p=0.009) countries compared with high-HDI countries, translating to 40 excess deaths per 1000 procedures performed.Conclusions: Adjusted mortality in children following emergency abdominal surgery may be as high as 7 times greater in low-HDI and middle-HDI countries compared with high-HDI countries. Effective provision of emergency essential surgery should be a key priority for global child health agendas.
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  • Vos, Theo, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 310 diseases and injuries, 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1545-1602
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Non-fatal outcomes of disease and injury increasingly detract from the ability of the world's population to live in full health, a trend largely attributable to an epidemiological transition in many countries from causes affecting children, to non-communicable diseases (NCDs) more common in adults. For the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we estimated the incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for diseases and injuries at the global, regional, and national scale over the period of 1990 to 2015. Methods We estimated incidence and prevalence by age, sex, cause, year, and geography with a wide range of updated and standardised analytical procedures. Improvements from GBD 2013 included the addition of new data sources, updates to literature reviews for 85 causes, and the identification and inclusion of additional studies published up to November, 2015, to expand the database used for estimation of non-fatal outcomes to 60 900 unique data sources. Prevalence and incidence by cause and sequelae were determined with DisMod-MR 2.1, an improved version of the DisMod-MR Bayesian meta-regression tool first developed for GBD 2010 and GBD 2013. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies where the complexity of the disease was not suited to DisMod-MR 2.1 or where incidence and prevalence needed to be determined from other data. For GBD 2015 we created a summary indicator that combines measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility (the Socio-demographic Index [SDI]) and used it to compare observed patterns of health loss to the expected pattern for countries or locations with similar SDI scores. Findings We generated 9.3 billion estimates from the various combinations of prevalence, incidence, and YLDs for causes, sequelae, and impairments by age, sex, geography, and year. In 2015, two causes had acute incidences in excess of 1 billion: upper respiratory infections (17.2 billion, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 15.4-19.2 billion) and diarrhoeal diseases (2.39 billion, 2.30-2.50 billion). Eight causes of chronic disease and injury each affected more than 10% of the world's population in 2015: permanent caries, tension-type headache, iron-deficiency anaemia, age-related and other hearing loss, migraine, genital herpes, refraction and accommodation disorders, and ascariasis. The impairment that affected the greatest number of people in 2015 was anaemia, with 2.36 billion (2.35-2.37 billion) individuals affected. The second and third leading impairments by number of individuals affected were hearing loss and vision loss, respectively. Between 2005 and 2015, there was little change in the leading causes of years lived with disability (YLDs) on a global basis. NCDs accounted for 18 of the leading 20 causes of age-standardised YLDs on a global scale. Where rates were decreasing, the rate of decrease for YLDs was slower than that of years of life lost (YLLs) for nearly every cause included in our analysis. For low SDI geographies, Group 1 causes typically accounted for 20-30% of total disability, largely attributable to nutritional deficiencies, malaria, neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, and tuberculosis. Lower back and neck pain was the leading global cause of disability in 2015 in most countries. The leading cause was sense organ disorders in 22 countries in Asia and Africa and one in central Latin America; diabetes in four countries in Oceania; HIV/AIDS in three southern sub-Saharan African countries; collective violence and legal intervention in two north African and Middle Eastern countries; iron-deficiency anaemia in Somalia and Venezuela; depression in Uganda; onchoceriasis in Liberia; and other neglected tropical diseases in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is increasing the number of people living with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Shifts in the epidemiological profile driven by socioeconomic change also contribute to the continued increase in years lived with disability (YLDs) as well as the rate of increase in YLDs. Despite limitations imposed by gaps in data availability and the variable quality of the data available, the standardised and comprehensive approach of the GBD study provides opportunities to examine broad trends, compare those trends between countries or subnational geographies, benchmark against locations at similar stages of development, and gauge the strength or weakness of the estimates available.
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  • Wang, Haidong, et al. (författare)
  • Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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5.
  • Amirian, E. Susan, et al. (författare)
  • Aspirin, NSAIDs, and Glioma Risk : Original Data from the Glioma International Case-Control Study and a Meta-analysis
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research (AACR). - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 28:3, s. 555-562
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: There have been few studies of sufficient size to address the relationship between glioma risk and the use of aspirin or NSAIDs, and results have been conflicting. The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between glioma and aspirin/NSAID use, and to aggregate these findings with prior published studies using meta-analysis.Methods: The Glioma International Case-Control Study (GICC) consists of 4,533 glioma cases and 4,171 controls recruited from 2010 to 2013. Interviews were conducted using a standardized questionnaire to obtain information on aspirin/NSAID use. We examined history of regular use for ≥6 months and duration-response. Restricted maximum likelihood meta-regression models were used to aggregate site-specific estimates, and to combine GICC estimates with previously published studies.Results: A history of daily aspirin use for ≥6 months was associated with a 38% lower glioma risk, compared with not having a history of daily use [adjusted meta-OR = 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.54–0.70]. There was a significant duration-response trend (P = 1.67 × 10−17), with lower ORs for increasing duration of aspirin use. Duration-response trends were not observed for NSAID use. In the meta-analysis aggregating GICC data with five previous studies, there was a marginally significant association between use of aspirin and glioma (mOR = 0.84; 95% CI, 0.70–1.02), but no association for NSAID use.Conclusions: Our study suggests that aspirin may be associated with a reduced risk of glioma.Impact: These results imply that aspirin use may be associated with decreased glioma risk. Further research examining the association between aspirin use and glioma risk is warranted.
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  • Bainbridge, Matthew N, et al. (författare)
  • Germline mutations in shelterin complex genes are associated with familial glioma
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : Oxford University Press. - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 107:1
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Gliomas are the most common brain tumor, with several histological subtypes of various malignancy grade. The genetic contribution to familial glioma is not well understood. Using whole exome sequencing of 90 individuals from 55 families, we identified two families with mutations in POT1 (p.G95C, p.E450X), a member of the telomere shelterin complex, shared by both affected individuals in each family and predicted to impact DNA binding and TPP1 binding, respectively. Validation in a separate cohort of 264 individuals from 246 families identified an additional mutation in POT1 (p.D617Efs), also predicted to disrupt TPP1 binding. All families with POT1 mutations had affected members with oligodendroglioma, a specific subtype of glioma more sensitive to irradiation. These findings are important for understanding the origin of glioma and could have importance for the future diagnostics and treatment of glioma.
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7.
  • Jalali, Ali, et al. (författare)
  • Targeted sequencing in chromosome 17q linkage region identifies familial glioma candidates in the Gliogene Consortium
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 2045-2322. ; 5, s. 8278-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Glioma is a rare, but highly fatal, cancer that accounts for the majority of malignant primary brain tumors. Inherited predisposition to glioma has been consistently observed within non-syndromic families. Our previous studies, which involved non-parametric and parametric linkage analyses, both yielded significant linkage peaks on chromosome 17q. Here, we use data from next generation and Sanger sequencing to identify familial glioma candidate genes and variants on chromosome 17q for further investigation. We applied a filtering schema to narrow the original list of 4830 annotated variants down to 21 very rare (<0.1% frequency), non-synonymous variants. Our findings implicate the MYO19 and KIF18B genes and rare variants in SPAG9 and RUNDC1 as candidates worthy of further investigation. Burden testing and functional studies are planned.
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  • Amirian, E. Susan, et al. (författare)
  • Approaching a Scientific Consensus on the Association between Allergies and Glioma Risk : a report from the Glioma International Case-Control Study
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - : American Association for Cancer Research. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 25:2, s. 282-290
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Several previous studies have found inverse associations between glioma susceptibility and a history of allergies or other atopic conditions. Some evidence indicates that respiratory allergies are likely to be particularly relevant with regard to glioma risk. Using data from the Glioma International Case-Control Study (GICC), we examined the effects of respiratory allergies and other atopic conditions on glioma risk. Methods: The GICC contains detailed information on history of atopic conditions for 4,533 cases and 4,171 controls, recruited from 14 study sites across five countries. Using two-stage random-effects restricted maximum likelihood modeling to calculate meta-analysis ORs, we examined the associations between glioma and allergy status, respiratory allergy status, asthma, and eczema. Results: Having a history of respiratory allergies was associated with an approximately 30% lower glioma risk, compared with not having respiratory allergies (mOR, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.58-0.90). This association was similar when restricting to high-grade glioma cases. Asthma and eczema were also significantly protective against glioma. Conclusion: A substantial amount of data on the inverse association between atopic conditions and glioma has accumulated, and findings from the GICC study further strengthen the existing evidence that the relationship between atopy and glioma is unlikely to be coincidental. Impact: As the literature approaches a consensus on the impact of allergies in glioma risk, future research can begin to shift focus to what the underlying biologic mechanism behind this association may be, which could, in turn, yield new opportunities for immunotherapy or cancer prevention. (C) 2016 AACR.
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  • Amirian, E. Susan, et al. (författare)
  • History of chickenpox in glioma risk : a report from the glioma international case-control study (GICC)
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Cancer Medicine. - 2045-7634 .- 2045-7634. ; 5:6, s. 1352-1358
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Varicella zoster virus (VZV) is a neurotropic alpha-herpesvirus that causes chickenpox and establishes life-long latency in the cranial nerve and dorsal root ganglia of the host. To date, VZV is the only virus consistently reported to have an inverse association with glioma. The Glioma International Case-Control Study (GICC) is a large, multisite consortium with data on 4533 cases and 4171 controls collected across five countries. Here, we utilized the GICC data to confirm the previously reported associations between history of chickenpox and glioma risk in one of the largest studies to date on this topic. Using two-stage random-effects restricted maximum likelihood modeling, we found that a positive history of chickenpox was associated with a 21% lower glioma risk, adjusting for age and sex (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.65-0.96). Furthermore, the protective effect of chickenpox was stronger for high-grade gliomas. Our study provides additional evidence that the observed protective effect of chickenpox against glioma is unlikely to be coincidental. Future studies, including meta-analyses of the literature and investigations of the potential biological mechanism, are warranted.
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