| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(författare)
-
Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
|
|
| 3. |
- Garmestani, Ahjond, et al.
(författare)
-
Untapped capacity for resilience in environmental law
- 2019
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 116:40, s. 19899-19904
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Over the past several decades, environmental governance has made substantial progress in addressing environmental change, but emerging environmental problems require new innovations in law, policy, and governance. While expansive legal reform is unlikely to occur soon, there is untapped potential in existing laws to address environmental change, both by leveraging adaptive and transformative capacities within the law itself to enhance social-ecological resilience and by using those laws to allow social-ecological systems to adapt and transform. Legal and policy research to date has largely overlooked this potential, even though it offers a more expedient approach to addressing environmental change than waiting for full-scale environmental law reform. We highlight examples from the United States and the European Union of untapped capacity in existing laws for fostering resilience in social-ecological systems. We show that governments and other governance agents can make substantial advances in addressing environmental change in the short term-without major legal reform-by exploiting those untapped capacities, and we offer principles and strategies to guide such initiatives.
|
|
| 4. |
- Beukes, Eldré W, et al.
(författare)
-
Internet-based interventions for adults with hearing loss, tinnitus and vestibular disorders : a protocol for a systematic review
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Systematic Reviews. - : BioMed Central. - 2046-4053. ; 7:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Internet-based interventions are emerging as an alternative way of delivering accessible healthcare for various conditions including hearing and balance disorders. A comprehensive review regarding the evidence-base of Internet-based interventions for auditory-related conditions is required to determine the existing evidence of their efficacy and effectiveness. The objective of the current protocol is to provide the methodology for a systematic review regarding the effects of Internet-based interventions for adults with hearing loss, tinnitus and vestibular disorders.METHOD: This protocol was developed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-analyses for Protocols (PRISMA-P) 2015 guidelines. Electronic database searches will include EBSCOhost, PubMed and Cochrane Central Register performed by two researchers. This will be complemented by searching other resources such as the reference lists for included studies to identify studies meeting the eligibility for inclusion with regard to study designs, participants, interventions, comparators and outcomes. The Cochrane risk of bias tool (RoB 2) for randomised trials will be used for the bias assessments in the included studies. Criteria for conducting meta-analyses were defined.DISCUSSION: The result of this systematic review will be of value to establish the effects of Internet-based interventions for hearing loss, tinnitus and vestibular disorders. This will be of importance to guide future planning of auditory intervention research and clinical services by healthcare providers, researchers, consumers and stakeholders.SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42018094801.
|
|
| 5. |
- Beukes, Eldré W., et al.
(författare)
-
Development and technical functionality of an Internet-based intervention for tinnitus in the UK
- 2016
-
Ingår i: Internet Interventions. - : Elsevier. - 2214-7829. ; 6, s. 6-15
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- PurposeCreative approaches to improve access to evidence-based tinnitus treatments are required. The purpose of this study was to develop an Internet-based cognitive behavioural therapy (iCBT) intervention, for those experiencing tinnitus in the United Kingdom (UK). Furthermore, it aimed, through technical functionality testing, to identify specific aspects of the iCBT that require improving.MethodAn innovative iCBT intervention for treating tinnitus in the UK has been developed using a cognitive-behavioural theoretical framework. This iCBT was evaluated by two user groups during this developmental phase. Initially, five expert reviews evaluated the intervention, prior to evaluation by a group of 29 adults experiencing significant levels of tinnitus distress. Both groups evaluated iCBT in an independent measures design, using a specifically designed satisfaction outcome measure.ResultsOverall, similar ratings were given by the expert reviewers and adults with tinnitus, showing a high level of satisfaction regarding the content, suitability, presentation, usability and exercises provided in the intervention. The iCBT intervention has been refined following technical functionality testing.ConclusionsRigorous testing of the developed iCBT intervention has been undertaken. These evaluations provide confidence that further clinical trials can commence in the UK, to assess the feasibility and effectiveness of this iCBT intervention for tinnitus.
|
|
| 6. |
- Beukes, Eldre W., et al.
(författare)
-
Long-Term Efficacy of Audiologist-Guided Internet-Based Cognitive Behavior Therapy for Tinnitus
- 2018
-
Ingår i: American Journal of Audiology. - : AMER SPEECH-LANGUAGE-HEARING ASSOC. - 1059-0889 .- 1558-9137. ; 27:3, s. 431-447
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the long-term outcomes 1 year after undertaking an audiologist-guided Internet-based cognitive behavioral therapy (iCBT) intervention for tinnitus. Secondary aims were to identify any predictors of outcome and whether there were any unwanted events related to undertaking iCBT for tinnitus. Method: Participants who had previously undertaken a randomized iCBT efficacy trial for tinnitus were invited to participate. Of the 146 who were initially randomized for the efficacy trial, 104 participants completed the 1-year post-intervention assessment measures. The primary outcome was a change in tinnitus distress as assessed by the Tinnitus Functional Index. Secondary assessment measures were included for insomnia, anxiety, depression, hearing handicap, hyperacusis, cognitive failures, and satisfaction with life. An intention-to-treat analysis using repeated-measures analysis of variance and hierarchical multiple regression was used for statistical analysis. Unwanted effects were categorized according to the unwanted events checklist. Results: Undertaking iCBT for tinnitus led to significant improvements 1 year post-intervention for tinnitus and related difficulties, for example, insomnia, anxiety, depression, hearing handicap, hyperacusis, and life satisfaction. The best predictors of improving tinnitus severity at 1-year post-intervention were greater baseline tinnitus severity scores, reading more of the modules, and higher satisfaction with the intervention. Unwanted events were reported by 11% of the participants and were more likely to be reported by women than men. These events were related to worsening of symptoms, the emergence of new symptoms, negative well-being, and prolongation of treatment. Conclusions: The clinical benefits of audiologist-guided iCBT for tinnitus and tinnitus-related difficulties were sustained 1 year post-intervention. Predictors of outcome indicated that the intervention is applicable to a wide range of participants regardless of their demographic backgrounds. Attempts should be made to minimize unwanted events in subsequent trials.
|
|
