| 1. |
- Abdalla, H., et al.
(författare)
-
TeV Emission of Galactic Plane Sources with HAWC and HESS
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Astrophysical Journal. - : Institute of Physics Publishing (IOPP). - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 917:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) observatory and the High Energy Stereoscopic System (H.E.S.S.) are two leading instruments in the ground-based very-high-energy gamma-ray domain. HAWC employs the water Cherenkov detection (WCD) technique, while H.E.S.S. is an array of Imaging Atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes (IACTs). The two facilities therefore differ in multiple aspects, including their observation strategy, the size of their field of view, and their angular resolution, leading to different analysis approaches. Until now, it has been unclear if the results of observations by both types of instruments are consistent: several of the recently discovered HAWC sources have been followed up by IACTs, resulting in a confirmed detection only in a minority of cases. With this paper, we go further and try to resolve the tensions between previous results by performing a new analysis of the H.E.S.S. Galactic plane survey data, applying an analysis technique comparable between H.E.S.S. and HAWC. Events above 1 TeV are selected for both data sets, the point-spread function of H.E.S.S. is broadened to approach that of HAWC, and a similar background estimation method is used. This is the first detailed comparison of the Galactic plane observed by both instruments. H.E.S.S. can confirm the gamma-ray emission of four HAWC sources among seven previously undetected by IACTs, while the three others have measured fluxes below the sensitivity of the H.E.S.S. data set. Remaining differences in the overall gamma-ray flux can be explained by the systematic uncertainties. Therefore, we confirm a consistent view of the gamma-ray sky between WCD and IACT techniques.
|
|
| 2. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(författare)
-
The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
|
|
| 3. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(författare)
-
Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
-
Ingår i: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
|
|
| 4. |
- Alonso-Sáez, Laura, et al.
(författare)
-
Role for urea in nitrification by polar marine Archaea
- 2012
-
Ingår i: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 109:44, s. 17989-17994
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Despite the high abundance of Archaea in the global ocean, their metabolism and biogeochemical roles remain largely unresolved. We investigated the population dynamics and metabolic activity of Thaumarchaeota in polar environments, where these microorganisms are particularly abundant and exhibit seasonal growth. Thaumarchaeota were more abundant in deep Arctic and Antarctic waters and grew throughout the winter at surface and deeper Arctic halocline waters. However, in situ single-cell activity measurements revealed a low activity of this group in the uptake of both leucine and bicarbonate (<5% Thaumarchaeota cells active), which is inconsistent with known heterotrophic and autotrophic thaumarchaeal lifestyles. These results suggested the existence of alternative sources of carbon and energy. Our analysis of an environmental metagenome from the Arctic winter revealed that Thaumarchaeota had pathways for ammonia oxidation and, unexpectedly, an abundance of genes involved in urea transport and degradation. Quantitative PCR analysis confirmed that most polar Thaumarchaeota had the potential to oxidize ammonia, and a large fraction of them had urease genes, enabling the use of urea to fuel nitrification. Thaumarchaeota from Arctic deep waters had a higher abundance of urease genes than those near the surface suggesting genetic differences between closely related archaeal populations. In situ measurements of urea uptake and concentration in Arctic waters showed that small-sized prokaryotes incorporated the carbon from urea, and the availability of urea was often higher than that of ammonium. Therefore, the degradation of urea may be a relevant pathway for Thaumarchaeota and other microorganisms exposed to the low-energy conditions of dark polar waters.
|
|
| 5. |
|
|
