| 1. |
- Blach, S., et al.
(författare)
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Global change in hepatitis C virus prevalence and cascade of care between 2015 and 2020: a modelling study
- 2022
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Ingår i: Lancet Gastroenterology & Hepatology. - : Elsevier BV. - 2468-1253. ; 7:5, s. 396-415
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Since the release of the first global hepatitis elimination targets in 2016, and until the COVID-19 pandemic started in early 2020, many countries and territories were making progress toward hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination. This study aims to evaluate HCV burden in 2020, and forecast HCV burden by 2030 given current trends. Methods This analysis includes a literature review, Delphi process, and mathematical modelling to estimate HCV prevalence (viraemic infection, defined as HCV RNA-positive cases) and the cascade of care among people of all ages (age =0 years from birth) for the period between Jan 1, 2015, and Dec 31, 2030. Epidemiological data were collected from published sources and grey literature (including government reports and personal communications) and were validated among country and territory experts. A Markov model was used to forecast disease burden and cascade of care from 1950 to 2050 for countries and territories with data. Model outcomes were extracted from 2015 to 2030 to calculate population-weighted regional averages, which were used for countries or territories without data. Regional and global estimates of HCV prevalence, cascade of care, and disease burden were calculated based on 235 countries and territories. Findings Models were built for 110 countries or territories: 83 were approved by local experts and 27 were based on published data alone. Using data from these models, plus population-weighted regional averages for countries and territories without models (n=125), we estimated a global prevalence of viraemic HCV infection of 0.7% (95% UI 0.7-0.9), corresponding to 56.8 million (95% UI 55.2-67.8) infections, on Jan 1, 2020. This number represents a decrease of 6.8 million viraemic infections from a 2015 (beginning of year) prevalence estimate of 63.6 million (61.8-75.8) infections (0.9% [0.8-1.0] prevalence). By the end of 2020, an estimated 12.9 million (12.5-15.4) people were living with a diagnosed viraemic infection. In 2020, an estimated 641 000 (623 000-765 000) patients initiated treatment. Interpretation At the beginning of 2020, there were an estimated 56.8 million viraemic HCV infections globally. Although this number represents a decrease from 2015, our forecasts suggest we are not currently on track to achieve global elimination targets by 2030. As countries recover from COVID-19, these findings can help refocus efforts aimed at HCV elimination. Copyright (C) 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 3. |
- Lumbers, R. T., et al.
(författare)
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The genomics of heart failure: design and rationale of the HERMES consortium
- 2021
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Ingår i: Esc Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 2055-5822. ; 8:6, s. 5531-5541
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targets) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure. Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome-wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow-up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty-nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34-90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of >1.10 for common variants (allele frequency > 0.05) and >1.20 for low-frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01-0.05) at P < 5 x 10(-8) under an additive genetic model. Conclusions HERMES is a global collaboration aiming to (i) identify the genetic determinants of heart failure; (ii) generate insights into the causal pathways leading to heart failure and enable genetic approaches to target prioritization; and (iii) develop genomic tools for disease stratification and risk prediction.
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| 4. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 5. |
- Walters, R G, et al.
(författare)
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A new highly penetrant form of obesity due to deletions on chromosome 16p11.2.
- 2010
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 463:7281, s. 671-5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Obesity has become a major worldwide challenge to public health, owing to an interaction between the Western 'obesogenic' environment and a strong genetic contribution. Recent extensive genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified numerous single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with obesity, but these loci together account for only a small fraction of the known heritable component. Thus, the 'common disease, common variant' hypothesis is increasingly coming under challenge. Here we report a highly penetrant form of obesity, initially observed in 31 subjects who were heterozygous for deletions of at least 593 kilobases at 16p11.2 and whose ascertainment included cognitive deficits. Nineteen similar deletions were identified from GWAS data in 16,053 individuals from eight European cohorts. These deletions were absent from healthy non-obese controls and accounted for 0.7% of our morbid obesity cases (body mass index (BMI) >or= 40 kg m(-2) or BMI standard deviation score >or= 4; P = 6.4 x 10(-8), odds ratio 43.0), demonstrating the potential importance in common disease of rare variants with strong effects. This highlights a promising strategy for identifying missing heritability in obesity and other complex traits: cohorts with extreme phenotypes are likely to be enriched for rare variants, thereby improving power for their discovery. Subsequent analysis of the loci so identified may well reveal additional rare variants that further contribute to the missing heritability, as recently reported for SIM1 (ref. 3). The most productive approach may therefore be to combine the 'power of the extreme' in small, well-phenotyped cohorts, with targeted follow-up in case-control and population cohorts.
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| 6. |
- Charette, M. A., et al.
(författare)
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The Transpolar Drift as a Source of Riverine and Shelf-Derived Trace Elements to the Central Arctic Ocean
- 2020
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-9275 .- 2169-9291. ; 125:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major surface circulation feature of the Arctic Ocean is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a current that transports river-influenced shelf water from the Laptev and East Siberian Seas toward the center of the basin and Fram Strait. In 2015, the international GEOTRACES program included a high-resolution pan-Arctic survey of carbon, nutrients, and a suite of trace elements and isotopes (TEIs). The cruises bisected the TPD at two locations in the central basin, which were defined by maxima in meteoric water and dissolved organic carbon concentrations that spanned 600 km horizontally and similar to 25-50 m vertically. Dissolved TEIs such as Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Hg, Nd, and Th, which are generally particle-reactive but can be complexed by organic matter, were observed at concentrations much higher than expected for the open ocean setting. Other trace element concentrations such as Al, V, Ga, and Pb were lower than expected due to scavenging over the productive East Siberian and Laptev shelf seas. Using a combination of radionuclide tracers and ice drift modeling, the transport rate for the core of the TPD was estimated at 0.9 +/- 0.4 Sv (10(6) m(3)s(-1)). This rate was used to derive the mass flux for TEIs that were enriched in the TPD, revealing the importance of lateral transport in supplying materials beneath the ice to the central Arctic Ocean and potentially to the North Atlantic Ocean via Fram Strait. Continued intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle and permafrost degradation will likely lead to an increase in the flux of TEIs into the Arctic Ocean. Plain Language Summary A major feature of the Arctic Ocean circulation is the Transpolar Drift (TPD), a surface current that carries ice and continental shelf-derived materials from Siberia across the North Pole to the North Atlantic Ocean. In 2015, an international team of oceanographers conducted a survey of trace elements in the Arctic Ocean, traversing the TPD. Near the North Pole, they observed much higher concentrations of trace elements in surface waters than in regions on either side of the current. These trace elements originated from land, and their journey across the Arctic Ocean is made possible by chemical reactions with dissolved organic matter that originates mainly in Arctic rivers. This study reveals the importance of rivers and shelf processes combined with strong ocean currents in supplying trace elements to the central Arctic Ocean and onward to the Atlantic. These trace element inputs are expected to increase as a result of permafrost thawing and increased river runoff in the Arctic, which is warming at a rate much faster than anywhere else on Earth. Since many of the trace elements are essential building blocks for ocean life, these processes could lead to significant changes in the marine ecosystems and fisheries of the Arctic Ocean.
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| 9. |
- Falchi, M., et al.
(författare)
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Low copy number of the salivary amylase gene predisposes to obesity
- 2014
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 46:5, s. 492-497
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Common multi-allelic copy number variants (CNVs) appear enriched for phenotypic associations compared to their biallelic counterparts. Here we investigated the influence of gene dosage effects on adiposity through a CNV association study of gene expression levels in adipose tissue. We identified significant association of a multi-allelic CNV encompassing the salivary amylase gene (AMY1) with body mass index (BMI) and obesity, and we replicated this finding in 6,200 subjects. Increased AMY1 copy number was positively associated with both amylase gene expression (P = 2.31 × 10-14) and serum enzyme levels (P < 2.20 × 10-16), whereas reduced AMY1 copy number was associated with increased BMI (change in BMI per estimated copy =-0.15 (0.02) kg/m 2; P = 6.93 × 10-10) and obesity risk (odds ratio (OR) per estimated copy = 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.13-1.26; P = 1.46 × 10-10). The OR value of 1.19 per copy of AMY1 translates into about an eightfold difference in risk of obesity between subjects in the top (copy number > 9) and bottom (copy number < 4) 10% of the copy number distribution. Our study provides a first genetic link between carbohydrate metabolism and BMI and demonstrates the power of integrated genomic approaches beyond genome-wide association studies. © 2014 Nature America, Inc. All rights reserved.
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| 10. |
- Forstner, A. J., et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study of panic disorder reveals genetic overlap with neuroticism and depression
- 2021
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Ingår i: Molecular Psychiatry. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1359-4184 .- 1476-5578. ; 26, s. 4179-4190
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Panic disorder (PD) has a lifetime prevalence of 2–4% and heritability estimates of 40%. The contributory genetic variants remain largely unknown, with few and inconsistent loci having been reported. The present report describes the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PD to date comprising genome-wide genotype data of 2248 clinically well-characterized PD patients and 7992 ethnically matched controls. The samples originated from four European countries (Denmark, Estonia, Germany, and Sweden). Standard GWAS quality control procedures were conducted on each individual dataset, and imputation was performed using the 1000 Genomes Project reference panel. A meta-analysis was then performed using the Ricopili pipeline. No genome-wide significant locus was identified. Leave-one-out analyses generated highly significant polygenic risk scores (PRS) (explained variance of up to 2.6%). Linkage disequilibrium (LD) score regression analysis of the GWAS data showed that the estimated heritability for PD was 28.0–34.2%. After correction for multiple testing, a significant genetic correlation was found between PD and major depressive disorder, depressive symptoms, and neuroticism. A total of 255 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with p < 1 × 10−4 were followed up in an independent sample of 2408 PD patients and 228,470 controls from Denmark, Iceland and the Netherlands. In the combined analysis, SNP rs144783209 showed the strongest association with PD (pcomb = 3.10 × 10−7). Sign tests revealed a significant enrichment of SNPs with a discovery p-value of <0.0001 in the combined follow up cohort (p = 0.048). The present integrative analysis represents a major step towards the elucidation of the genetic susceptibility to PD. © 2019, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
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