| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(författare)
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- 2020
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Kanai, M, et al.
(författare)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 5. |
- Ansari, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Hemorrhage after Major Pancreatic Resection: Incidence, Risk Factors, Management, and Outcome.
- 2017
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Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Surgery. - : SAGE Publications. - 1799-7267 .- 1457-4969. ; 106:1, s. 47-53
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Hemorrhage is a rare but dreaded complication after pancreatic surgery. The aim of this study was to examine the incidence, risk factors, management, and outcome of postpancreatectomy hemorrhage in a tertiary care center. A retrospective observational study was conducted on 500 consecutive patients undergoing major pancreatic resections at our institution. Postpancrea-tectomy hemorrhage was defined according to the International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery criteria. RESULTS: A total of 68 patients (13.6%) developed postpancreatectomy hemorrhage. Thirty-four patients (6.8%) had a type A, 15 patients (3.0%) had a type B, and the remaining 19 patients (3.8%) had a type C bleed. Postoperative pancreatic fistula Grades B and C and bile leakage were significantly associated with severe postpancreatectomy hemorrhage on multivariable logistic regression. For patients with postpancreatectomy hemorrhage Grade C, the onset of bleeding was in median 13 days after the index operation, ranging from 1 to 85 days. Twelve patients (63.2%) had sentinel bleeds. Surgery lead to definitive hemostatic control in six of eight patients (75.0%). Angiography was able to localize the bleeding source in 8/10 (80.0%) cases. The success rate of angiographic hemostasis was 8/8. (100.0%). The mortality rate among patients with postpancreatectomy hemorrhage Grade C was 2/19 (10.5%), and both fatalities occurred late as a consequence of eroded vessels in association with pancreaticogastrostomy. CONCLUSION: Delayed hemorrhage is a serious complication after major pancreatic surgery.Sentinel bleed is an early warning sign. Postoperative pancreatic fistula and bile leakage are important risk factors for severe postpancreatectomy hemorrhage.
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| 6. |
- Ansari, David, et al.
(författare)
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Pancreatic cancer and thromboembolic disease, 150 years after Trousseau.
- 2015
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Ingår i: HepatoBiliary surgery and nutrition. - 2304-3881. ; 4:5, s. 325-335
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The connection between pancreatic cancer and venous thrombosis has been discussed for almost 150 years. The exact pathophysiological mechanisms are still partly understood, but it is known that pancreatic cancer induces a prothrombotic and hypercoagulable state and genetic events involved in neoplastic transformation (e.g., KRAS, c-MET, p53), procoagulant factors [e.g., tissue factor (TF), platelet factor 4 (PF4), plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 (PAI-1)], mucin production (e.g., through activation of P- and L-selectin) and pro-inflammatory factors [e.g., cytokines, cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2)] may be implicated. Also pancreatitis, both acute and chronic, is associated with increased risk of venous thrombosis, but in this circumstance a direct inflammatory process may be more important. This article discusses the incidence, treatment and outcome of venous thromboembolism (VTE) complicating pancreatic disease, with special emphasis on new knowledge obtained during the last fifteen years.
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| 7. |
- Ansari, David, et al.
(författare)
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Portal Venous System Thrombosis After Pancreatic Resection
- 2013
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Ingår i: World Journal of Surgery. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-2323 .- 0364-2313. ; 37:1, s. 179-184
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Portal venous system thrombosis (PVST) is a rare, potentially fatal complication after pancreatic resection. The aim of this study was to assess the incidence, presenting symptoms, management, and treatment of PVST in a large cohort of patients. Prospectively collected data on patients undergoing pancreatic resection between 1997 and 2009 were reviewed retrospectively. Preoperative and postoperative imaging were analyzed for the presence or absence of venous thrombi. All patients received standard thromboprophylaxis with low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH). Of 516 pancreatic resections performed, 18 (3.5 %) were complicated by PVST. The most common clinical presentations were abdominal pain (n = 9) and ascites (n = 5) but never any alarm symptoms. Other symptoms were vague and nonspecific (e.g., weight loss, fatigue, fever). Total pancreatectomy was a risk factor compared to hemipancreatectomy (p < 0.01), whereas the underlying disease per se did not make any difference. The median interval between surgery and diagnosis of PVST was 105 days (range 1-1,440 days). PVST was at least a contributing factor in the postoperative deaths of two patients. LMWH therapy did not significantly affect survival. PVST remains a relatively infrequent complication after pancreatic resection. Because accurate diagnosis and timely intervention may reduce morbidity and mortality, the possibility of PVST should be considered in patients presenting with vague symptoms. Whether anticoagulant treatment is needed is still not clear; there were no obvious differences in outcome between treated and untreated patients.
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| 8. |
- Moshontz, Hannah, et al.
(författare)
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The Psychological Science Accelerator: Advancing Psychology Through a Distributed Collaborative Network
- 2018
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Ingår i: Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science. - : SAGE Publications. - 2515-2459 .- 2515-2467. ; 1:4, s. 501-515
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Concerns about the veracity of psychological research have been growing. Many findings in psychological science are based on studies with insufficient statistical power and nonrepresentative samples, or may otherwise be limited to specific, ungeneralizable settings or populations. Crowdsourced research, a type of large-scale collaboration in which one or more research projects are conducted across multiple lab sites, offers a pragmatic solution to these and other current methodological challenges. The Psychological Science Accelerator (PSA) is a distributed network of laboratories designed to enable and support crowdsourced research projects. These projects can focus on novel research questions or replicate prior research in large, diverse samples. The PSA’s mission is to accelerate the accumulation of reliable and generalizable evidence in psychological science. Here, we describe the background, structure, principles, procedures, benefits, and challenges of the PSA. In contrast to other crowdsourced research networks, the PSA is ongoing (as opposed to time limited), efficient (in that structures and principles are reused for different projects), decentralized, diverse (in both subjects and researchers), and inclusive (of proposals, contributions, and other relevant input from anyone inside or outside the network). The PSA and other approaches to crowdsourced psychological science will advance understanding of mental processes and behaviors by enabling rigorous research and systematic examination of its generalizability.
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| 9. |
- Muus, Christoph, et al.
(författare)
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Single-cell meta-analysis of SARS-CoV-2 entry genes across tissues and demographics
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1078-8956 .- 1546-170X. ; 27:3, s. 546-559
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) and accessory proteases (TMPRSS2 and CTSL) are needed for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) cellular entry, and their expression may shed light on viral tropism and impact across the body. We assessed the cell-type-specific expression of ACE2, TMPRSS2 and CTSL across 107 single-cell RNA-sequencing studies from different tissues. ACE2, TMPRSS2 and CTSL are coexpressed in specific subsets of respiratory epithelial cells in the nasal passages, airways and alveoli, and in cells from other organs associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission or pathology. We performed a meta-analysis of 31 lung single-cell RNA-sequencing studies with 1,320,896 cells from 377 nasal, airway and lung parenchyma samples from 228 individuals. This revealed cell-type-specific associations of age, sex and smoking with expression levels of ACE2, TMPRSS2 and CTSL. Expression of entry factors increased with age and in males, including in airway secretory cells and alveolar type 2 cells. Expression programs shared by ACE2(+)TMPRSS2(+) cells in nasal, lung and gut tissues included genes that may mediate viral entry, key immune functions and epithelial-macrophage cross-talk, such as genes involved in the interleukin-6, interleukin-1, tumor necrosis factor and complement pathways. Cell-type-specific expression patterns may contribute to the pathogenesis of COVID-19, and our work highlights putative molecular pathways for therapeutic intervention. An integrated analysis of over 100 single-cell and single-nucleus transcriptomics studies illustrates severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 viral entry gene coexpression patterns across different human tissues, and shows association of age, smoking status and sex with viral entry gene expression in respiratory cell populations.
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| 10. |
- Sbarra, AN, et al.
(författare)
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Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
- 2021
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Ingår i: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 589:7842, s. 415-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children.
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