| 1. |
- Al-Ghussein Norrman, Nina, et al.
(författare)
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Blickar mot framtida världar : Omvärldsscenarier förfossilfritt flyg 2045
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Inom Fossilfritt Flyg 2045 genomförs en framtidsanalys. Syftet med framtidsanalysen är att tillsammans med aktörer och intressenter i ekosystemet kring flyget dels skapa samverkan, dels genomföra en rad aktiviteter vilka tillsammans med övrigt analysarbete ska resultera i en gemensam rapport till projektets finansiär, Energimyndigheten. De huvudsakliga aktiviteterna är trendanalys, scenarioanalys och färdplanering. Denna rapport presenterar resultatet av scenarioanalysen, och inbjuder läsaren till att använda dessa scenarier som underlag för att föra strukturerade samtal kring framtiden för fossilfritt flyg i den egna organisationen, med hjälp av den övningsdel som avslutar rapporten.
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| 2. |
- Al-Ghussein Norrman, Nina, et al.
(författare)
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Eyes on the horizon : External environment scenarios for fossil-free aviation by 2045
- 2020
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The scenario analysis aims to support strategic efforts to end aviation’s dependence on fossil fuels by creating reasonable, consistent pictures of what the future might look like. We focus on the external environment indeveloping the scenarios. This involves taking a look at potential developments leading up to 2045 of the factors which have major relevance for fossil-fuel-free aviation but are beyond the control of ecosystem actors and stakeholders.The scenario narratives we have produced contain descriptions of the business sector, politics, society, and technology and infrastructure, and capturethe developments of the following factors: global travel and consumer pressure for sustainable travel, raw material competition, the oil industry, the willingness to make sustainable investments, electrification and decentralisation, and disruptive technologies and business models.
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| 3. |
- Bengtsson, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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“Rich narratives” : Scenario analyses for the Lighthouse cities and recommendations
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This Deliverable 6.2 “Rich narratives” – Scenario analyses forthe Lighthouse cities and recommendations summarizes the process and outcome of Task 6.3 “Contextual Scenario analysis”. The work was carried out during October 2017 – November 2018.The deliverable describes one “rich narrative” of a plausible and relevant future each for the lighthouse cities of Umeå, Glasgow, and Rotterdam for the year 2033, specifically by providing a maximum credible upscaling potential of the smart solutions, thereby fulfilling the expectations of the project stakeholders and the description in the Grant Agreement.The analysis was performed in close cooperation with each lighthouse city, using foresight and innovations system analysis, notably through (1) interviews with smart solution stakeholders, (2) the creation of the visualisation tool UPSCALE (Upscaling System) to determine the upscaling potential of the technical solutions and innovations, and (3) the execution of one workshop for each city, capturing unique conditions and providing each city with a future image, helping determine which options for action are most robust.The results in Deliverable 6.2 will influence Task 6.1 “Innovation Platforms” and serve as an input to Task 6.4 “Assessing the long-term scaling potential and energy system effects of the light house smart solutions”.
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| 4. |
- Bengtsson, Daniel, et al.
(författare)
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Urban Innovation Systems Analysis
- 2019
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The goal of the urban innovation systems analysis is to provide strategy and governance recommendations to support upscaling of the solutions in each lighthouse city.First, enablers and barriers for upscaling are identified using the Critical Context and Conditions framework. Then, the Technological Innovation Systems framework is used to analyse the effects of these barriers and enablers on the main innovation functions of the urban innovation systems. The functioning of each function is assessed and the recommendations for improving them are given. As the final step, potential implications of the recommendations for the existing structural elements of innovation systems are presented.The report is structured as follows. First, the method for data collection and data analysis is described. Then, for each city, the barriers and enablers for the innovation system are outlined, followed by an analysis of how these barriers and enablers affect the functioning of the system. The recommendations for national, regional and local governance and strategy are introduced as the next step. The report concludes with a brief reflections and discussion of the results.
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