| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Haiman, Christopher A., et al.
(författare)
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A common variant at the TERT-CLPTM1L locus is associated with estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer
- 2011
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Ingår i: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 43:12, s. 61-1210
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Estrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancer shows a higher incidence in women of African ancestry compared to women of European ancestry. In search of common risk alleles for ER-negative breast cancer, we combined genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from women of African ancestry (1,004 ER-negative cases and 2,745 controls) and European ancestry (1,718 ER-negative cases and 3,670 controls), with replication testing conducted in an additional 2,292 ER-negative cases and 16,901 controls of European ancestry. We identified a common risk variant for ER-negative breast cancer at the TERT-CLPTM1L locus on chromosome 5p15 (rs10069690: per-allele odds ratio (OR) = 1.18 per allele, P = 1.0 x 10(-10)). The variant was also significantly associated with triple-negative (ER-negative, progesterone receptor (PR)-negative and human epidermal growth factor-2 (HER2)-negative) breast cancer (OR = 1.25, P = 1.1 x 10(-9)), particularly in younger women (<50 years of age) (OR = 1.48, P = 1.9 x 10(-9)). Our results identify a genetic locus associated with estrogen receptor negative breast cancer subtypes in multiple populations.
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| 5. |
- Poynter, Jenny N., et al.
(författare)
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Reproductive factors and risk of contralateral breast cancer by BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation status: results from the WECARE study
- 2010
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Ingår i: Cancer Causes and Control. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7225 .- 0957-5243. ; 21:6, s. 839-846
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Reproductive factors, such as early age at menarche, late age at menopause, and nulliparity are known risk factors for breast cancer. Previously, we reported these factors to be associated with risk of developing contralateral breast cancer (CBC). In this study, we evaluated the association between these factors and CBC risk among BRCA1 and BRCA2 (BRCA1/2) mutation carriers and non-carriers. The WECARE Study is a population-based multi-center case-control study of 705 women with CBC (cases) and 1,397 women with unilateral breast cancer (controls). All participants were screened for BRCA1/2 mutations and 181 carriers were identified. Conditional logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations between reproductive factors and CBC for mutation carriers and non-carriers. None of the associations between reproductive factors and CBC risk differed between mutation carriers and non-carriers. The increase in risk with younger age at menarche and decrease in risk in women with more than two full-term pregnancies seen in non-carriers were not significantly different in carriers (adjusted RRs = 1.31, 95% CI 0.65-2.65 and 0.53, 95% CI 0.19-1.51, respectively). No significant associations between the other reproductive factors and CBC risk were observed in mutation carriers or non-carriers. For two reproductive factors previously shown to be associated with CBC risk, we observed similar associations for BRCA1/2 carriers. This suggests that reproductive variables that affect CBC risk may have similar effects in mutation carriers and non-carriers.
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| 6. |
- Bernstein, Jonine L., et al.
(författare)
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Contralateral breast cancer after radiotherapy among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers: A WECARE Study Report
- 2013
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Ingår i: European Journal of Cancer. - : Elsevier BV. - 1879-0852 .- 0959-8049. ; 49:14, s. 2979-2985
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Women with germline BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1/BRCA2) mutations are at very high risk of developing breast cancer, including asynchronous contralateral breast cancer (CBC). BRCA1/BRCA2 genes help maintain genome stability and assist in DNA repair. We examined whether the risk of CBC associated with radiation treatment was higher among women with germline BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations than among non-carriers. Methods: A population-based, nested case-control study was conducted within a cohort of 52,536 survivors of unilateral breast cancer (UBC). Cases were 603 women with CBC and controls were 1199 women with UBC individually matched on age at diagnosis, race, year of first diagnosis and cancer registry. All women were tested for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. Radiation absorbed dose from the initial radiotherapy (RT) to the CBC location within the contralateral breast was reconstructed from measurements in a tissue-equivalent phantom and details available in the therapy records. Findings: Among women treated with radiation, the mean radiation dose was 1.1 Gy (range = 0.02-6.2 Gy). Risk of developing CBC was elevated among women who carried a deleterious BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation (rate ratio, RR = 4.5, confidence interval, CI = 3.0-6.8), and also among those treated with RT (RR = 1.2, CI = 1.0-1.6). However, among mutation carriers, an incremental increase in risk associated with radiation dose was not statistically significant. Interpretation: Multiplicative interaction of RT with mutation status would be reflected by a larger association of RT with CBC among carriers than among non-carriers, but this was not apparent. Accordingly, there was no clear indication that carriers of deleterious BRCA/BRCA2 mutations were more susceptible to the carcinogenic effects of radiation than non-carriers. These findings are reassuring and have important clinical implications for treatment decisions and the clinical management of patients harbouring deleterious BRCA1/BRCA2 mutations. Funding: All work associated with this study was supported by the U.S. National Cancer Institute [R01CA097397, U01CA083178]. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 7. |
- Reding, Kerryn W., et al.
(författare)
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Genetic variants on chromosome 5p12 are associated with risk of breast cancer in African American women: the Black Women's Health Study
- 2010
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Ingår i: Breast Cancer Research and Treatment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1573-7217 .- 0167-6806. ; 123:2, s. 491-498
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs4415084, and rs10941679 on chromosome 5p12 were associated with risk of breast cancer in a recent genome-wide association study (GWAS) of women of European ancestry. Both SNPs are located in a large high-LD region and the causal variant(s) are still unknown. We conducted a nested case-control study in a cohort of African American women to replicate and narrow the region carrying the causal variant(s). We evaluated 14 tagging SNPs in a 98 kb LD block surrounding the index SNPs in 886 breast cancer cases and 1,089 controls from the Black Women's Health Study. We used the Cochran-Armitage trend test to assess association with breast cancer risk. Odds ratios were derived from logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders including percent European admixture. We confirmed the reported association of rs4415084 SNP with overall risk of breast cancer (P = 0.06), and, as in the original study, observed a stronger association with estrogen receptor positive tumors (P = 0.03). We identified four other SNPs (rs6451770, rs12515012, rs13156930, and rs16901937) associated with risk of breast cancer at the nominal alpha value of 0.05; all of them were located in a 59 kb HapMap YRI LD block. After correction for multiple testing, the association with SNP rs16901937 remained significant (P permutated = 0.038). The G allele was associated with a 21% increased risk of breast cancer overall and with a 32% increase in tumors positive for both estrogen and progesterone receptors. The present results from an African ancestry (AA) population confirm the presence of breast cancer susceptibility genetic variants in the chromosome 5p12 region. We successfully used the shorter range of LD in our AA sample to refine the localization of the putative causal variant.
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| 8. |
- Purrington, Kristen S., et al.
(författare)
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Genome-wide association study identifies 25 known breast cancer susceptibility loci as risk factors for triple-negative breast cancer
- 2014
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Ingår i: Carcinogenesis. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0143-3334 .- 1460-2180. ; 35:5, s. 1012-1019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In a genome-wide scan, we show that 30 variants in 25 genomic regions are associated with risk of TN breast cancer. Women carrying many of the risk variants may have 4-fold increased risk relative to women with few variants.Triple-negative (TN) breast cancer is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer associated with a unique set of epidemiologic and genetic risk factors. We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association study of TN breast cancer (stage 1: 1529 TN cases, 3399 controls; stage 2: 2148 cases, 1309 controls) to identify loci that influence TN breast cancer risk. Variants in the 19p13.1 and PTHLH loci showed genome-wide significant associations (P < 5 x 10(-) (8)) in stage 1 and 2 combined. Results also suggested a substantial enrichment of significantly associated variants among the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) analyzed in stage 2. Variants from 25 of 74 known breast cancer susceptibility loci were also associated with risk of TN breast cancer (P < 0.05). Associations with TN breast cancer were confirmed for 10 loci (LGR6, MDM4, CASP8, 2q35, 2p24.1, TERT-rs10069690, ESR1, TOX3, 19p13.1, RALY), and we identified associations with TN breast cancer for 15 additional breast cancer loci (P < 0.05: PEX14, 2q24.1, 2q31.1, ADAM29, EBF1, TCF7L2, 11q13.1, 11q24.3, 12p13.1, PTHLH, NTN4, 12q24, BRCA2, RAD51L1-rs2588809, MKL1). Further, two SNPs independent of previously reported signals in ESR1 [rs12525163 odds ratio (OR) = 1.15, P = 4.9 x 10(-) (4)] and 19p13.1 (rs1864112 OR = 0.84, P = 1.8 x 10(-) (9)) were associated with TN breast cancer. A polygenic risk score (PRS) for TN breast cancer based on known breast cancer risk variants showed a 4-fold difference in risk between the highest and lowest PRS quintiles (OR = 4.03, 95% confidence interval 3.46-4.70, P = 4.8 x 10(-) (69)). This translates to an absolute risk for TN breast cancer ranging from 0.8% to 3.4%, suggesting that genetic variation may be used for TN breast cancer risk prediction.
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