| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 3. |
- Bao, Ying, et al.
(författare)
-
Folate Intake and Risk of Pancreatic Cancer : Pooled Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies
- 2011
-
Ingår i: Journal of the National Cancer Institute. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. - 0027-8874 .- 1460-2105. ; 103:24, s. 1840-1850
-
Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Epidemiological studies evaluating the association between folate intake and risk of pancreatic cancer have produced inconsistent results. The statistical power to examine this association has been limited in previous studies partly because of small sample size and limited range of folate intake in some studies. Methods We analyzed primary data from 14 prospective cohort studies that included 319 716 men and 542 948 women to assess the association between folate intake and risk of pancreatic cancer. Folate intake was assessed through a validated food-frequency questionnaire at baseline in each study. Study-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models and then pooled using a random effects model. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results During 7-20 years of follow-up across studies, 2195 pancreatic cancers were identified. No association was observed between folate intake and risk of pancreatic cancer in men and women (highest vs lowest quintile: dietary folate intake, pooled multivariable RR = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.25, P-trend = .47; total folate intake [dietary folate and supplemental folic acid], pooled multivariable RR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.80 to 1.16, P-trend = .90). No between-study heterogeneity was observed (for dietary folate, P-heterogeneity = .15; for total folate, P-heterogeneity = .22). Conclusion Folate intake was not associated with overall risk of pancreatic cancer in this large pooled analysis.
|
|
| 4. |
- Campbell, Peter T, et al.
(författare)
-
Body Size Indicators and Risk of Gallbladder Cancer : Pooled Analysis of Individual-Level Data from 19 Prospective Cohort Studies.
- 2017
-
Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers and Prevention. - 1055-9965 .- 1538-7755. ; 26:4, s. 597-606
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: There are few established risk factors for gallbladder cancer beyond gallstones. Recent studies suggest a higher risk with high body mass index (BMI), an indicator of general heaviness, but evidence from other body size measures is lacking.Methods: Associations of adult BMI, young adult BMI, height, adult weight gain, waist circumference (WC), waist-height ratio (WHtR), hip circumference (HC), and waist-hip ratio (WHR) with gallbladder cancer risk were evaluated. Individual-level data from 1,878,801 participants in 19 prospective cohort studies (14 studies had circumference measures) were harmonized and included in this analysis. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression estimated hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).Results: After enrollment, 567 gallbladder cancer cases were identified during 20.1 million person-years of observation, including 361 cases with WC measures. Higher adult BMI (per 5 kg/m2, HR: 1.24; 95% CI, 1.13-1.35), young adult BMI (per 5 kg/m2, HR: 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.26), adult weight gain (per 5 kg, HR: 1.07; 95% CI, 1.02-1.12), height (per 5 cm, HR: 1.10; 95% CI, 1.03-1.17), WC (per 5 cm, HR: 1.09; 95% CI, 1.02-1.17), WHtR (per 0.1 unit, HR: 1.24; 95% CI, 1.00-1.54), and HC (per 5 cm, HR: 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04-1.22), but not WHR (per 0.1 unit, HR: 1.03; 95% CI, 0.87-1.22), were associated with higher risks of gallbladder cancer, and results did not differ meaningfully by sex or other demographic/lifestyle factors.Conclusions: These findings indicate that measures of overall and central excess body weight are associated with higher gallbladder cancer risks.Impact: Excess body weight is an important, and potentially preventable, gallbladder cancer risk factor. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(4); 597-606. ©2017 AACR.
|
|
| 5. |
- Cerhan, James R., et al.
(författare)
-
A Pooled Analysis of Waist Circumference and Mortality in 650,000 Adults
- 2014
-
Ingår i: Mayo Clinic proceedings. - : ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC. - 0025-6196 .- 1942-5546. ; 89:3, s. 335-345
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives: To assess the independent effect of waist circumference on mortality across the entire body mass index (BMI) range and to estimate the loss in life expectancy related to a higher waist circumference. Patients and Methods: We pooled data from 11 prospective cohort studies with 650,386 white adults aged 20 to 83 years and enrolled from January 1, 1986, through December 31, 2000. We used proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association of waist circumference with mortality. Results: During a median follow-up of 9 years (maximum, 21 years), 78,268 participants died. After accounting for age, study, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and physical activity, a strong positive linear association of waist circumference with all-cause mortality was observed for men (HR, 1.52 for waist circumferences of >= 110 vs < 90 cm; 95% CI, 1.45-1.59; HR, 1.07 per 5-cm increment in waist circumference; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08) and women (HR, 1.80 for waist circumferences of >= 95 vs < 70 cm; 95% CI, 1.70-1.89; HR, 1.09 per 5-cm increment in waist circumference; 95% CI, 1.08-1.09). The estimated decrease in life expectancy for highest vs lowest waist circumference was approximately 3 years for men and approximately 5 years for women. The HR per 5-cm increment in waist circumference was similar for both sexes at all BMI levels from 20 to 50 kg/m(2), but it was higher at younger ages, higher for longer follow-up, and lower among male current smokers. The associations were stronger for heart and respiratory disease mortality than for cancer. Conclusions: In white adults, higher waist circumference was positively associated with higher mortality at all levels of BMI from 20 to 50 kg/m(2). Waist circumference should be assessed in combination with BMI, even for those in the normal BMI range, as part of risk assessment for obesity-related premature mortality. (C) 2014 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research
|
|
| 6. |
- Coignard, J, et al.
(författare)
-
A case-only study to identify genetic modifiers of breast cancer risk for BRCA1/BRCA2 mutation carriers
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Nature communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 12:1, s. 1078-
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Breast cancer (BC) risk for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers varies by genetic and familial factors. About 50 common variants have been shown to modify BC risk for mutation carriers. All but three, were identified in general population studies. Other mutation carrier-specific susceptibility variants may exist but studies of mutation carriers have so far been underpowered. We conduct a novel case-only genome-wide association study comparing genotype frequencies between 60,212 general population BC cases and 13,007 cases with BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutations. We identify robust novel associations for 2 variants with BC for BRCA1 and 3 for BRCA2 mutation carriers, P < 10−8, at 5 loci, which are not associated with risk in the general population. They include rs60882887 at 11p11.2 where MADD, SP11 and EIF1, genes previously implicated in BC biology, are predicted as potential targets. These findings will contribute towards customising BC polygenic risk scores for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers.
|
|
| 7. |
|
|
| 8. |
- Fortner, Renée T., et al.
(författare)
-
Ovarian cancer risk factors by tumor aggressiveness : An analysis from the Ovarian Cancer Cohort Consortium
- 2019
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - : Wiley. - 0020-7136 .- 1097-0215. ; 145:1, s. 58-69
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Ovarian cancer risk factors differ by histotype; however, within subtype, there is substantial variability in outcomes. We hypothesized that risk factor profiles may influence tumor aggressiveness, defined by time between diagnosis and death, independent of histology. Among 1.3 million women from 21 prospective cohorts, 4,584 invasive epithelial ovarian cancers were identified and classified as highly aggressive (death in <1 year, n = 864), very aggressive (death in 1 to < 3 years, n = 1,390), moderately aggressive (death in 3 to < 5 years, n = 639), and less aggressive (lived 5+ years, n = 1,691). Using competing risks Cox proportional hazards regression, we assessed heterogeneity of associations by tumor aggressiveness for all cases and among serous and endometrioid/clear cell tumors. Associations between parity (phet = 0.01), family history of ovarian cancer (phet = 0.02), body mass index (BMI; phet ≤ 0.04) and smoking (phet < 0.01) and ovarian cancer risk differed by aggressiveness. A first/single pregnancy, relative to nulliparity, was inversely associated with highly aggressive disease (HR: 0.72; 95% CI [0.58-0.88]), no association was observed for subsequent pregnancies (per pregnancy, 0.97 [0.92-1.02]). In contrast, first and subsequent pregnancies were similarly associated with less aggressive disease (0.87 for both). Family history of ovarian cancer was only associated with risk of less aggressive disease (1.94 [1.47-2.55]). High BMI (≥35 vs. 20 to < 25 kg/m2 , 1.93 [1.46-2.56] and current smoking (vs. never, 1.30 [1.07-1.57]) were associated with increased risk of highly aggressive disease. Results were similar within histotypes. Ovarian cancer risk factors may be directly associated with subtypes defined by tumor aggressiveness, rather than through differential effects on histology. Studies to assess biological pathways are warranted.
|
|
| 9. |
|
|
| 10. |
- Gaudet, Mia M., et al.
(författare)
-
Anthropometry and head and neck cancer : a pooled analysis of cohort data
- 2015
-
Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 44:2, s. 673-681
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Associations between anthropometry and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk are inconsistent. We aimed to evaluate these associations while minimizing biases found in previous studies. Methods: We pooled data from 1 941 300 participants, including 3760 cases, in 20 cohort studies and used multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association of anthropometric measures with HNC risk overall and stratified by smoking status. Results: Greater waist circumference (per 5cm: HR = 1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.05, P-value for trend = <0.0001) and waist-to-hip ratio (per 0.1 unit: HR = 1.07, 95% CI 1.05-1.09, P-value for trend = <0.0001), adjusted for body mass index (BMI), were associated with higher risk and did not vary by smoking status (P-value for heterogeneity = 0.85 and 0.44, respectively). Associations with BMI (P-value for interaction = <0.0001) varied by smoking status. Larger BMI was associated with higher HNC risk in never smokers (per 5 kg/m(2): HR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.24, P-value for trend = 0.0006), but not in former smokers (per 5 kg/m(2): HR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.93-1.06, P-value for trend = 0.79) or current smokers (per 5 kg/m(2): HR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.71-0.82, P-value for trend = <0.0001). Larger hip circumference was not associated with a higher HNC risk. Greater height (per 5cm) was associated with higher risk of HNC in never and former smokers, but not in current smokers. Conclusions: Waist circumference and waist-to-hip ratio were associated positively with HNC risk regardless of smoking status, whereas a positive association with BMI was only found in never smokers.
|
|
