| 1. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 2. |
- Langenberg, C., et al.
(författare)
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Design and cohort description of the InterAct Project : an examination of the interaction of genetic and lifestyle factors on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in the EPIC Study
- 2011
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - : Springer. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 54:9, s. 2272-2282
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Studying gene-lifestyle interaction may help to identify lifestyle factors that modify genetic susceptibility and uncover genetic loci exerting important subgroup effects. Adequately powered studies with prospective, unbiased, standardised assessment of key behavioural factors for gene-lifestyle studies are lacking. This case-cohort study aims to investigate how genetic and potentially modifiable lifestyle and behavioural factors, particularly diet and physical activity, interact in their influence on the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurring in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohorts between 1991 and 2007 from eight of the ten EPIC countries were ascertained and verified. Prentice-weighted Cox regression and random-effects meta-analyses were used to investigate differences in diabetes incidence by age and sex. A total of 12,403 verified incident cases of type 2 diabetes occurred during 3.99 million person-years of follow-up of 340,234 EPIC participants eligible for InterAct. We defined a centre-stratified subcohort of 16,154 individuals for comparative analyses. Individuals with incident diabetes who were randomly selected into the subcohort (n = 778) were included as cases in the analyses. All prevalent diabetes cases were excluded from the study. InterAct cases were followed-up for an average of 6.9 years; 49.7% were men. Mean baseline age and age at diagnosis were 55.6 and 62.5 years, mean BMI and waist circumference values were 29.4 kg/m(2) and 102.7 cm in men, and 30.1 kg/m(2) and 92.8 cm in women, respectively. Risk of type 2 diabetes increased linearly with age, with an overall HR of 1.56 (95% CI 1.48-1.64) for a 10 year age difference, adjusted for sex. A male excess in the risk of incident diabetes was consistently observed across all countries, with a pooled HR of 1.51 (95% CI 1.39-1.64), adjusted for age. InterAct is a large, well-powered, prospective study that will inform our understanding of the interplay between genes and lifestyle factors on the risk of type 2 diabetes development.
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| 3. |
- Romaguera, D., et al.
(författare)
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Consumption of sweet beverages and type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults: results from EPIC-InterAct
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1432-0428 .- 0012-186X. ; 56:7, s. 1520-1530
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages has been shown, largely in American populations, to increase type 2 diabetes incidence. We aimed to evaluate the association of consumption of sweet beverages (juices and nectars, sugar-sweetened soft drinks and artificially sweetened soft drinks) with type 2 diabetes incidence in European adults. We established a case-cohort study including 12,403 incident type 2 diabetes cases and a stratified subcohort of 16,154 participants selected from eight European cohorts participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. After exclusions, the final sample size included 11,684 incident cases and a subcohort of 15,374 participants. Cox proportional hazards regression models (modified for the case-cohort design) and random-effects meta-analyses were used to estimate the association between sweet beverage consumption (obtained from validated dietary questionnaires) and type 2 diabetes incidence. In adjusted models, one 336 g (12 oz) daily increment in sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drink consumption was associated with HRs for type 2 diabetes of 1.22 (95% CI 1.09, 1.38) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.26, 1.83), respectively. After further adjustment for energy intake and BMI, the association of sugar-sweetened soft drinks with type 2 diabetes persisted (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.06, 1.32), but the association of artificially sweetened soft drinks became statistically not significant (HR 1.11, 95% CI 0.95, 1.31). Juice and nectar consumption was not associated with type 2 diabetes incidence. This study corroborates the association between increased incidence of type 2 diabetes and high consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks in European adults.
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| 4. |
- Beulens, J. W. J., et al.
(författare)
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Alcohol consumption and risk of type 2 diabetes in European men and women : influence of beverage type and body size The EPIC-InterAct study
- 2012
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Ingår i: Journal of Internal Medicine. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0954-6820 .- 1365-2796. ; 272:4, s. 358-370
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes, and determine whether this is modified by sex, body mass index (BMI) and beverage type. Design: Multicentre prospective casecohort study. Setting: Eight countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. Subjects: A representative baseline sample of 16 154 participants and 12 403 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. Interventions: Alcohol consumption assessed using validated dietary questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Occurrence of type 2 diabetes based on multiple sources (mainly self-reports), verified against medical information. Results: Amongst men, moderate alcohol consumption was nonsignificantly associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.90 (95% CI: 0.781.05) for 6.112.0 versus 0.16.0 g day-1, adjusted for dietary and diabetes risk factors. However, the lowest risk was observed at higher intakes of 24.196.0 g day-1 with an HR of 0.86 (95% CI: 0.750.98). Amongst women, moderate alcohol consumption was associated with a lower incidence of diabetes with a hazard ratio of 0.82 (95% CI: 0.720.92) for 6.112.0 g day-1 (P interaction gender <0.01). The inverse association between alcohol consumption and diabetes was more pronounced amongst overweight (BMI = 25 kg m-2) than normal-weight men and women (P interaction < 0.05). Adjusting for waist and hip circumference did not alter the results for men, but attenuated the association for women (HR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.791.03 for 6.112.0 g day-1). Wine consumption for men and fortified wine consumption for women were most strongly associated with a reduced risk of diabetes. Conclusions: The results of this study show that moderate alcohol consumption is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes amongst women only. However, this risk reduction is in part explained by fat distribution. The relation between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes was stronger for overweight than normal-weight women and men.
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| 5. |
- Scott, R. A., et al.
(författare)
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The link between family history and risk of type 2 diabetes is not explained by anthropometric, lifestyle or genetic risk factors : the EPIC-InterAct study
- 2013
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - : Springer. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 56:1, s. 60-69
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims/hypothesis: Although a family history of type 2 diabetes is a strong risk factor for the disease, the factors mediating this excess risk are poorly understood. In the InterAct case-cohort study, we investigated the association between a family history of diabetes among different family members and the incidence of type 2 diabetes, as well as the extent to which genetic, anthropometric and lifestyle risk factors mediated this association.Methods: A total of 13,869 individuals (including 6,168 incident cases of type 2 diabetes) had family history data available, and 6,887 individuals had complete data on all mediators. Country-specific Prentice-weighted Cox models were fitted within country, and HRs were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Lifestyle and anthropometric measurements were performed at baseline, and a genetic risk score comprising 35 polymorphisms associated with type 2 diabetes was created.Results: A family history of type 2 diabetes was associated with a higher incidence of the condition (HR 2.72, 95% CI 2.48, 2.99). Adjustment for established risk factors including BMI and waist circumference only modestly attenuated this association (HR 2.44, 95% CI 2.03, 2.95); the genetic score alone explained only 2% of the family history-associated risk of type 2 diabetes. The greatest risk of type 2 diabetes was observed in those with a biparental history of type 2 diabetes (HR 5.14, 95% CI 3.74, 7.07) and those whose parents had been diagnosed with diabetes at a younger age (<50 years; HR 4.69, 95% CI 3.35, 6.58), an effect largely confined to a maternal family history.Conclusions/interpretation: Prominent lifestyle, anthropometric and genetic risk factors explained only a marginal proportion of the excess risk associated with family history, highlighting the fact that family history remains a strong, independent and easily assessed risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Discovering factors that will explain the association of family history with type 2 diabetes risk will provide important insight into the aetiology of type 2 diabetes.
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| 6. |
- Crowe, F. L., et al.
(författare)
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Dietary fibre intake and ischaemic heart disease mortality : the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Heart study
- 2012
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Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0954-3007 .- 1476-5640. ; 66:8, s. 950-956
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Evidence from prospective studies is consistent in showing an inverse association between dietary fibre intake and risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but whether dietary fibre from various food sources differ in their effect on IHD risk is less clear. The objective of this study was to assess the associations of total and food sources of dietary fibre with IHD mortality in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Heart study. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Participants were 306 331 men and women from eight European countries. Dietary fibre intake was assessed using centre or country-specific diet questionnaires and calibrated using a 24-h diet recall. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 11.5 years, there were 2381 IHD deaths among participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline. The calibrated intake of dietary fibre was inversely related with IHD mortality; each 10 g/day was associated with a 15% lower risk (relative risk (RR) 0.85; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.73-0.99, P = 0.031). There was no difference in the associations of the individual food sources of dietary fibre with the risk of IHD mortality; RR for each 5 g/day higher cereal fibre intake was 0.91 (CI: 0.82-1.01), RR for each 2.5 g/day fruit fibre intake was 0.94 (CI: 0.88-1.01) and RR for each 2.5 g/day vegetable fibre intake was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.76-1.07). CONCLUSION: A higher consumption of dietary fibre is associated with a lower risk of fatal IHD with no clear difference in the association with IHD for fibre from cereals, fruits or vegetables.
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| 7. |
- Abbas, S., et al.
(författare)
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Dietary vitamin D intake and risk of type 2 diabetes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition: the EPIC-InterAct study
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007. ; 68:2, s. 196-202
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Prospective cohort studies have indicated that serum vitamin D levels are inversely related to risk of type 2 diabetes. However, such studies cannot determine the source of vitamin D. Therefore, we examined the association of dietary vitamin D intake with incident type 2 diabetes within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct study in a heterogeneous European population including eight countries with large geographical variation. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Using a case-cohort design, 11 245 incident cases of type 2 diabetes and a representative subcohort (N = 15 798) were included in the analyses. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for type 2 diabetes were calculated using a Prentice-weighted Cox regression adjusted for potential confounders. Twenty-four-hour diet-recall data from a subsample (N = 2347) were used to calibrate habitual intake data derived from dietary questionnaires. RESULTS: Median follow-up time was 10.8 years. Dietary vitamin D intake was not significantly associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. HR and 95% CIs for the highest compared to the lowest quintile of uncalibrated vitamin D intake was 1.09 (0.97-1.22) (P-trend = 0.17). No associations were observed in a sex-specific analysis. The overall pooled effect (HR (95% CI)) using the continuous calibrated variable was 1.00 (0.97-1.03) per increase of 1 mg/day dietary vitamin D. CONCLUSIONS: This observational study does not support an association between higher dietary vitamin D intake and type 2 diabetes incidence. This result has to be interpreted in light of the limited contribution of dietary vitamin D on the overall vitamin D status of a person.
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| 8. |
- Grote, V. A., et al.
(författare)
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Diabetes mellitus, glycated haemoglobin and C-peptide levels in relation to pancreatic cancer risk : a study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort
- 2011
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Ingår i: Diabetologia. - New York : Springer-Verlag New York. - 0012-186X .- 1432-0428. ; 54:12, s. 3037-3046
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims/hypothesis: There has been long-standing debate about whether diabetes is a causal risk factor for pancreatic cancer or a consequence of tumour development. Prospective epidemiological studies have shown variable relationships between pancreatic cancer risk and blood markers of glucose and insulin metabolism, overall and as a function of lag times between marker measurements (blood donation) and date of tumour diagnosis.Methods: Pre-diagnostic levels of HbA(1c) and C-peptide were measured for 466 participants with pancreatic cancer and 466 individually matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs for pancreatic cancer.Results: Pancreatic cancer risk gradually increased with increasing pre-diagnostic HbA(1c) levels up to an OR of 2.42 (95% CI 1.33, 4.39 highest [>= 6.5%, 48 mmol/mol] vs lowest [<= 5.4%, 36 mmol/mol] category), even for individuals with HbA(1c) levels within the non-diabetic range. C-peptide levels showed no significant relationship with pancreatic cancer risk, irrespective of fasting status. Analyses showed no clear trends towards increasing hyperglycaemia (as marked by HbA(1c) levels) or reduced pancreatic beta cell responsiveness (as marked by C-peptide levels) with decreasing time intervals from blood donation to cancer diagnosis.Conclusions/interpretation: Our data on HbA(1c) show that individuals who develop exocrine pancreatic cancer tend to have moderate increases in HbA(1c) levels, relatively independently of obesity and insulin resistance-the classic and major risk factors for type 2 diabetes. While there is no strong difference by lag time, more data are needed on this in order to reach a firm conclusion.
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