| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Ali, Nauman bin, Dr., et al.
(författare)
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A Comparison of Citation Sources for Reference and Citation-Based Search in Systematic Literature Reviews
- 2022
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Ingår i: e-Informatica Software Engineering Journal. - : Wroclaw University of Technology. - 1897-7979 .- 2084-4840. ; 16:1
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: In software engineering, snowball sampling has been used as a supplementary and primary search strategy. The current guidelines recommend using Google Scholar (GS) for snowball sampling. However, the use of GS presents several challenges when using it as a source for citations and references. Objective: To compare the effectiveness and usefulness of two leading citation databases (GS and Scopus) for use in snowball sampling search. Method: We relied on a published study that has used snowball sampling as a search strategy and GS as the citation source. We used its primary studies to compute precision and recall for Scopus. Results: In this particular case, Scopus was highly effective with 95% recall and had better precision of 5.1% compared to GS’s 2.8%. Moreover, Scopus found nine additional relevant papers. On average, one would read approximately 15 extra papers in GS than Scopus to identify one additional relevant paper. Furthermore, Scopus supports batch downloading of both citations and papers’ references, has better quality metadata, and does better source filtering. Conclusion: This study suggests that Scopus seems to be more effective and useful for snowball sampling than GS for systematic secondary studies attempting to identify peer-reviewed literature. EVIE © 2022 The Authors.
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| 5. |
- Ali, Nauman Bin, et al.
(författare)
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A consolidated process for software process simulation : State of the Art and Industry Experience
- 2012
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Software process simulation is a complex task and in order to conduct a simulation project practitioners require support through a process for software process simulation modelling (SPSM), including what steps to take and what guidelines to follow in each step. This paper provides a literature based consolidated process for SPSM where the steps and guidelines for each step are identified through a review of literature and are complemented by experience from using these recommendations in an action research at a large Telecommunication vendor. We found five simulation processes in SPSM literature, resulting in a seven-step process. The consolidated process was successfully applied at the studied company, with the experiences of doing so being reported.
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| 6. |
- Ali, Nauman bin, et al.
(författare)
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A critical appraisal tool for systematic literature reviews in software engineering
- 2019
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Ingår i: Information and Software Technology. - : Elsevier B.V.. - 0950-5849 .- 1873-6025. ; 112, s. 48-50
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: Methodological research on systematic literature reviews (SLRs)in Software Engineering (SE)has so far focused on developing and evaluating guidelines for conducting systematic reviews. However, the support for quality assessment of completed SLRs has not received the same level of attention. Objective: To raise awareness of the need for a critical appraisal tool (CAT)for assessing the quality of SLRs in SE. To initiate a community-based effort towards the development of such a tool. Method: We reviewed the literature on the quality assessment of SLRs to identify the frequently used CATs in SE and other fields. Results: We identified that the CATs currently used is SE were borrowed from medicine, but have not kept pace with substantial advancements in the field of medicine. Conclusion: In this paper, we have argued the need for a CAT for quality appraisal of SLRs in SE. We have also identified a tool that has the potential for application in SE. Furthermore, we have presented our approach for adapting this state-of-the-art CAT for assessing SLRs in SE. © 2019 The Authors
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| 7. |
- Ali, Nauman bin, et al.
(författare)
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FLOW-assisted value stream mapping in the early phases of large-scale software development
- 2016
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Ingår i: Journal of Systems and Software. - : Elsevier. - 0164-1212 .- 1873-1228. ; 111, s. 213-227
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Value stream mapping (VSM) has been successfully applied in the context of software process improvement. However, its current adaptations from Lean manufacturing focus mostly on the flow of artifacts and have taken no account of the essential information flows in software development. A solution specifically targeted toward information flow elicitation and modeling is FLOW. This paper aims to propose and evaluate the combination of VSM and FLOW to identify and alleviate information and communication related challenges in large-scale software development. Using case study research, FLOW-assisted VSM was used for a large product at Ericsson AB, Sweden. Both the process and the outcome of FLOW-assisted VSM have been evaluated from the practitioners’ perspective. It was noted that FLOW helped to systematically identify challenges and improvements related to information flow. Practitioners responded favorably to the use of VSM and FLOW, acknowledged the realistic nature and impact on the improvement on software quality, and found the overview of the entire process using the FLOW notation very useful. The combination of FLOW and VSM presented in this study was successful in systematically uncovering issues and characterizing their solutions, indicating their practical usefulness for waste removal with a focus on information flow related issues.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Ali, Nauman bin, et al.
(författare)
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On the search for industry-relevant regression testing research
- 2019
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Ingår i: Empirical Software Engineering. - New York, NY : Springer. - 1382-3256 .- 1573-7616. ; 24:4, s. 2020-2055
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Regression testing is a means to assure that a change in the software, or its execution environment, does not introduce new defects. It involves the expensive undertaking of rerunning test cases. Several techniques have been proposed to reduce the number of test cases to execute in regression testing, however, there is no research on how to assess industrial relevance and applicability of such techniques. We conducted a systematic literature review with the following two goals: firstly, to enable researchers to design and present regression testing research with a focus on industrial relevance and applicability and secondly, to facilitate the industrial adoption of such research by addressing the attributes of concern from the practitioners' perspective. Using a reference-based search approach, we identified 1068 papers on regression testing. We then reduced the scope to only include papers with explicit discussions about relevance and applicability (i.e. mainly studies involving industrial stakeholders). Uniquely in this literature review, practitioners were consulted at several steps to increase the likelihood of achieving our aim of identifying factors important for relevance and applicability. We have summarised the results of these consultations and an analysis of the literature in three taxonomies, which capture aspects of industrial-relevance regarding the regression testing techniques. Based on these taxonomies, we mapped 38 papers reporting the evaluation of 26 regression testing techniques in industrial settings. © The Author(s) 2019
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| 10. |
- Ali, Nauman bin, et al.
(författare)
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Reliability of search in systematic reviews : Towards a quality assessment framework for the automated-search strategy
- 2018
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Ingår i: Information and Software Technology. - : Elsevier. - 0950-5849 .- 1873-6025. ; 99, s. 133-147
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: The trust in systematic literature reviews (SLRs) to provide credible recommendations is critical for establishing evidence-based software engineering (EBSE) practice. The reliability of SLR as a method is not a given and largely depends on the rigor of the attempt to identify, appraise and aggregate evidence. Previous research, by comparing SLRs on the same topic, has identified search as one of the reasons for discrepancies in the included primary studies. This affects the reliability of an SLR, as the papers identified and included in it are likely to influence its conclusions. Objective: We aim to propose a comprehensive evaluation checklist to assess the reliability of an automated-search strategy used in an SLR. Method: Using a literature review, we identified guidelines for designing and reporting automated-search as a primary search strategy. Using the aggregated design, reporting and evaluation guidelines, we formulated a comprehensive evaluation checklist. The value of this checklist was demonstrated by assessing the reliability of search in 27 recent SLRs. Results: Using the proposed evaluation checklist, several additional issues (not captured by the current evaluation checklist) related to the reliability of search in recent SLRs were identified. These issues severely limit the coverage of literature by the search and also the possibility to replicate it. Conclusion: Instead of solely relying on expensive replications to assess the reliability of SLRs, this work provides means to objectively assess the likely reliability of a search-strategy used in an SLR. It highlights the often-assumed aspect of repeatability of search when using automated-search. Furthermore, by explicitly considering repeatability and consistency as sub-characteristics of a reliable search, it provides a more comprehensive evaluation checklist than the ones currently used in EBSE. © 2018 Elsevier B.V.
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