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| 2. |
- Kaptoge, S., et al.
(författare)
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World Health Organization cardiovascular disease risk charts: revised models to estimate risk in 21 global regions
- 2019
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Ingår i: Lancet Global Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 2214-109X. ; 7:10, s. E1332-E1345
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background To help adapt cardiovascular disease risk prediction approaches to low-income and middle-income countries, WHO has convened an effort to develop, evaluate, and illustrate revised risk models. Here, we report the derivation, validation, and illustration of the revised WHO cardiovascular disease risk prediction charts that have been adapted to the circumstances of 21 global regions. Methods In this model revision initiative, we derived 10-year risk prediction models for fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (ie, myocardial infarction and stroke) using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration. Models included information on age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total cholesterol. For derivation, we included participants aged 40-80 years without a known baseline history of cardiovascular disease, who were followed up until the first myocardial infarction, fatal coronary heart disease, or stroke event. We recalibrated models using age-specific and sex-specific incidences and risk factor values available from 21 global regions. For external validation, we analysed individual participant data from studies distinct from those used in model derivation. We illustrated models by analysing data on a further 123 743 individuals from surveys in 79 countries collected with the WHO STEPwise Approach to Surveillance. Findings Our risk model derivation involved 376 177 individuals from 85 cohorts, and 19 333 incident cardiovascular events recorded during 10 years of follow-up. The derived risk prediction models discriminated well in external validation cohorts (19 cohorts, 1 096 061 individuals, 25 950 cardiovascular disease events), with Harrell's C indices ranging from 0.685 (95% CI 0 . 629-0 741) to 0.833 (0 . 783-0- 882). For a given risk factor profile, we found substantial variation across global regions in the estimated 10-year predicted risk. For example, estimated cardiovascular disease risk for a 60-year-old male smoker without diabetes and with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg and total cholesterol of 5 mmol/L ranged from 11% in Andean Latin America to 30% in central Asia. When applied to data from 79 countries (mostly low-income and middle-income countries), the proportion of individuals aged 40-64 years estimated to be at greater than 20% risk ranged from less than 1% in Uganda to more than 16% in Egypt. Interpretation We have derived, calibrated, and validated new WHO risk prediction models to estimate cardiovascular disease risk in 21 Global Burden of Disease regions. The widespread use of these models could enhance the accuracy, practicability, and sustainability of efforts to reduce the burden of cardiovascular disease worldwide. Copyright (C) 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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| 3. |
- Hageman, S., et al.
(författare)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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| 4. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(författare)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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Ingår i: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 7. |
- Lejaeghere, Kurt, et al.
(författare)
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Reproducibility in density functional theory calculations of solids.
- 2016
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Ingår i: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 351:6280, s. 1415-1422
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The widespread popularity of density functional theory has given rise to an extensive range of dedicated codes for predicting molecular and crystalline properties. However, each code implements the formalism in a different way, raising questions about the reproducibility of such predictions. We report the results of a community-wide effort that compared 15 solid-state codes, using 40 different potentials or basis set types, to assess the quality of the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof equations of state for 71 elemental crystals. We conclude that predictions from recent codes and pseudopotentials agree very well, with pairwise differences that are comparable to those between different high-precision experiments. Older methods, however, have less precise agreement. Our benchmark provides a framework for users and developers to document the precision of new applications and methodological improvements.
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| 8. |
- Martens, Marvin, et al.
(författare)
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ELIXIR and Toxicology : a community in development
- 2021
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Ingår i: F1000 Research. - : F1000 Research Ltd. - 2046-1402. ; 10, s. 1129-1129
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Toxicology has been an active research field for many decades, with academic, industrial and government involvement. Modern omics and computational approaches are changing the field, from merely disease-specific observational models into target-specific predictive models. Traditionally, toxicology has strong links with other fields such as biology, chemistry, pharmacology and medicine. With the rise of synthetic and new engineered materials, alongside ongoing prioritisation needs in chemical risk assessment for existing chemicals, early predictive evaluations are becoming of utmost importance to both scientific and regulatory purposes. ELIXIR is an intergovernmental organisation that brings together life science resources from across Europe. To coordinate the linkage of various life science efforts around modern predictive toxicology, the establishment of a new ELIXIR Community is seen as instrumental. In the past few years, joint efforts, building on incidental overlap, have been piloted in the context of ELIXIR. For example, the EU-ToxRisk, diXa, HeCaToS, transQST, and the nanotoxicology community have worked with the ELIXIR TeSS, Bioschemas, and Compute Platforms and activities. In 2018, a core group of interested parties wrote a proposal, outlining a sketch of what this new ELIXIR Toxicology Community would look like. A recent workshop (held September 30th to October 1st, 2020) extended this into an ELIXIR Toxicology roadmap and a shortlist of limited investment-high gain collaborations to give body to this new community. This Whitepaper outlines the results of these efforts and defines our vision of the ELIXIR Toxicology Community and how it complements other ELIXIR activities.
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| 9. |
- Mortzell, Monica, et al.
(författare)
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Thrombotic microangiopathy
- 2011
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Ingår i: Transfusion and apheresis science. - Oxford : Elsevier. - 1473-0502 .- 1878-1683. ; 45:2, s. 119-123
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thrombotic microangiopathy (TMA) is a histopathological feature of various diseases including thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura (UP) and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS). There are many secondary causes of TMA, many of them could mimic TTP or HUS. This article presents a short overview on TMA. In conclusion TMA is the result of various etiology reasons and pathologic reactions with various clinical entities. It is important to focus on a thorough history including family history when deciding on a diagnosis. Analysis of ADAMTS 13 and ADAMTS 13-antibodies may help to decide continued therapy.
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| 10. |
- Mörtzell, Monica, et al.
(författare)
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Analyses of data of patients with Thrombotic Microangiopathy in the WAA registry
- 2011
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Ingår i: Transfusion and apheresis science. - : Elsevier. - 1473-0502 .- 1878-1683. ; 45:2, s. 125-131
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Thrombotic Microangiopathy (TMA) is a histopathological feature of various diseases including thrombotic thrombocytopenic purpura and hemolytic uremic syndrome. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanThe aim of this study was to investigate the outcome and prognostic variables of TMA-patients. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanMaterials and methods: Data were consecutively retrieved from the WAA-apheresis registry (www.waa-registry.org) during 2003-2009. Included were all 120 patients (1237 procedures) who suffered from various forms of TMA, as registered by the ICD-10 code M31.1. Besides registry data, more extensive information was retrieved from the latest 64 patients. Adverse events of the TMA patients were compared to those of the other patients in the registry. less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanResults: The mean age was 46 years (range 11-85 years, 57% women). In 72% therapeutic apheresis was due to an acute indication while a long-term indication was present in 28%. Plasma exchange was performed by centrifugation and filtration technique (95% and 4%, respectively), and immunoadsorption in 1% of the patients. Only fresh frozen plasma was used as replacement fluid in 69% of procedures. Adverse events were more frequent than in the general apheresis population (10% versus 5%, RR 1.9, CI 1.6-2.3). No death occurred due to apheresis treatment. Three percent of the procedures were interrupted. Bronchospasm and/or anaphylactic shock were present in two patients and one patient suffered from TRALI. At admission 26% were bedridden and needed to be fed. The risk of dying during the treatment period was significantly higher if the patient also suffered from a compromising disease, such as cancer. There was an inverse correlation between the ADAMTS13 level and the antibody titer (r = -0.47, p = 0.034). less thanbrgreater than less thanbrgreater thanConclusions: Patients with TMA have an increased risk for moderate and severe AE compared to the general apheresis population. Many patients were severely ill at admission. The prognosis is worse if the patient also has a severe chronic disease. Even slightly increased ADAMTS13-antibody titers seem to have a negative impact on the ADAMTS13 levels. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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