SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe

Hageman, S. (author)

Pennells, L. (author)

Ojeda, F. (author)

Kaptoge, S. (author)

Kuulasmaa, K. (author)

de Vries, T. (author)

Xu, Z. (author)

Kee, F. (author)

Chung, R. (author)

Wood, A. (author)

McEvoy, J. W. (author)

Veronesi, G. (author)

Bolton, T. (author)

Dendale, P. (author)

Ference, B. A. (author)

Halle, M. (author)

Timmis, A. (author)

Vardas, P. (author)

Danesh, J. (author)

Graham, I. (author)

Salomaa, V. (author)

Visseren, F. (author)

De Bacquer, D. (author)

Blankenberg, S. (author)

Dorresteijn, J. (author)

Di Angelantonio, E. (author)

Achenbach, S. (author)

Aleksandrova, K. (author)

Amiano, P. (author)

Amouyel, P. (author)

Andersson, Jonas, 1977- (author): Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för medicin

Söderberg, Stefan (author): Umeå universitet,Kardiologi,Avdelningen för medicin

Costa, R. B. D. (author)

Beulens, J. W. J. (author)

Blaha, M. (author)

Bobak, M. (author)

Boer, J. M. A. (author)

Bonet, C. (author)

Bonnet, F. (author)

Boutron-Ruault, M. C. (author)

Braaten, T. (author)

Brenner, H. (author)

Brunner, F. (author)

Brunner, E. J. (author)

Brunström, Mattias (author): Umeå universitet,Avdelningen för medicin

Buring, J. (author)

Butterworth, A. S. (author)

Capkova, N. (author)

Cesana, G. (author)

Chrysohoou, C. (author)

Colorado-Yohar, S. (author)

Cook, N. R. (author)

Cooper, C. (author)

Dahm, C. C. (author)

Davidson, K. (author)

Dennison, E. (author)

Di Castelnuovo, A. (author)

Donfrancesco, C. (author)

Dorr, M. (author)

Dorynska, A. (author)

Eliasson, M. (author)

Engstrom, G. (author)

Ferrari, P. (author)

Ferrario, M. (author)

Ford, I. (author)

Fu, Michael, 1963 (author): Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för molekylär och klinisk medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine

Gansevoort, R. T. (author)

Giampaoli, S. (author)

Gillum, R. F. (author)

de la Camara, A. G. (author)

Grassi, G. (author)

Hansson, Per-Olof, 1958 (author): Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för molekylär och klinisk medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine

Huculeci, R. (author)

Hveem, K. (author)

Iacoviello, L. (author)

Ikram, M. K. (author)

Jorgensen, T. (author)

Joseph, B. (author)

Jousilahti, P. (author)

Jukema, J. W. (author)

Kaaks, R. (author)

Katzke, V. (author)

Kavousi, M. (author)

Kiechl, S. (author)

Klotsche, J. (author)

Konig, W. (author)

Rosengren, Annika, 1951 (author): Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för molekylär och klinisk medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine

Kubinova, R. (author)

Kucharska-Newton, A. (author)

Lall, K. (author)

Lehmann, N. (author)

Leistner, D. (author)

Linneberg, A. (author)

Pablos, D. L. (author)

Lorenz, T. (author)

Lu, W. T. (author)

Luksiene, D. (author)

Lyngbakken, M. (author)

Magnussen, C. (author)

Malyutina, S. (author)

Ibanez, A. M. (author)

Masala, G. (author)

Mathiesen, E. B. (author)

Matsushita, K. (author)

Meade, T. W. (author)

Melander, O. (author)

Meyer, H. E. (author)

Moons, K. G. M. (author)

Moreno-Iribas, C. (author)

Muller, D. (author)

Munzel, T. (author)

Nikitin, Y. (author)

Nordestgaard, B. G. (author)

Omland, T. (author)

Onland, C. (author)

Overvad, K. (author)

Packard, C. (author)

Pajak, A. (author)

Palmieri, L. (author)

Panagiotakos, D. (author)

Panico, S. (author)

Perez-Cornago, A. (author)

Peters, A. (author)

Pietila, A. (author)

Pikhart, H. (author)

Psaty, B. M. (author)

Quarti-Trevano, F. (author)

Garcia, J. R. Q. (author)

Riboli, E. (author)

Ridker, P. M. (author)

Rodriguez, B. (author)

Rodriguez-Barranco, M. (author)

Rosengren, Annika, 1951 (author): Gothenburg University,Göteborgs universitet,Institutionen för medicin, avdelningen för molekylär och klinisk medicin,Institute of Medicine, Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine

Roussel, R. (author)

Sacerdote, C. (author)

Sans, S. (author)

Sattar, N. (author)

Schiborn, C. (author)

Schmidt, B. (author)

Schottker, B. (author)

Schulze, M. (author)

Schwartz, J. E. (author)

Selmer, R. M. (author)

Shea, S. (author)

Shipley, M. J. (author)

Sieri, S. (author)

Soderberg, S. (author)

Sofat, R. (author)

Tamosiunas, A. (author)

Thorand, B. (author)

Tillmann, T. (author)

Tjonneland, A. (author)

Tong, T. Y. N. (author)

Trichopoulou, A. (author)

Tumino, R. (author)

Tunstall-Pedoe, H. (author)

Tybjaerg-Hansen, A. (author)

Tzoulaki, J. (author)

van der Heijden, A. (author)

van der Schouw, Y. T. (author)

Verschuren, W. M. M. (author)

Volzke, H. (author)

Waldeyer, C. (author)

Wareham, N. J. (author)

Weiderpass, E. (author)

Weidinger, F. (author)

Wild, P. (author)

Willeit, J. (author)

Willeit, P. (author)

Wilsgaard, T. (author)

Woodward, M. (author)

Zeller, T. (author)

Zhang, D. D. (author)

Zhou, B. (author)

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(creator_code:org_t)

2021-06-13
2021
English.
In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454

Related links:: https://academic.oup...; show more...; https://gup.ub.gu.se...; https://doi.org/10.1...; https://urn.kb.se/re...; show less...

Journal article (peer-reviewed)

Abstract Subject headings

Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.

Subject headings

MEDICIN OCH HÄLSOVETENSKAP -- Klinisk medicin -- Kardiologi (hsv//swe)
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES -- Clinical Medicine -- Cardiac and Cardiovascular Systems (hsv//eng)

Keyword

Risk prediction
Cardiovascular disease
Primary prevention
10-year CVD
risk
acute coronary events
primary-care
profile
participants
validation
rationale
design
Cardiovascular System & Cardiology
10-year CVD risk

Publication and Content Type

ref (subject category)
art (subject category)

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By the author/editor: Hageman, S.; Pennells, L.; Ojeda, F.; Kaptoge, S.; Kuulasmaa, K.; de Vries, T.; show more...; Xu, Z.; Kee, F.; Chung, R.; Wood, A.; McEvoy, J. W.; Veronesi, G.; Bolton, T.; Dendale, P.; Ference, B. A.; Halle, M.; Timmis, A.; Vardas, P.; Danesh, J.; Graham, I.; Salomaa, V.; Visseren, F.; De Bacquer, D.; Blankenberg, S.; Dorresteijn, J.; Di Angelantonio, ...; Achenbach, S.; Aleksandrova, K.; Amiano, P.; Amouyel, P.; Andersson, Jonas ...; Söderberg, Stefa ...; Costa, R. B. D.; Beulens, J. W. J ...; Blaha, M.; Bobak, M.; Boer, J. M. A.; Bonet, C.; Bonnet, F.; Boutron-Ruault, ...; Braaten, T.; Brenner, H.; Brunner, F.; Brunner, E. J.; Brunström, Matti ...; Buring, J.; Butterworth, A. ...; Capkova, N.; Cesana, G.; Chrysohoou, C.; Colorado-Yohar, ...; Cook, N. R.; Cooper, C.; Dahm, C. C.; Davidson, K.; Dennison, E.; Di Castelnuovo, ...; Donfrancesco, C.; Dorr, M.; Dorynska, A.; Eliasson, M.; Engstrom, G.; Ferrari, P.; Ferrario, M.; Ford, I.; Fu, Michael, 196 ...; Gansevoort, R. T ...; Giampaoli, S.; Gillum, R. F.; de la Camara, A. ...; Grassi, G.; Hansson, Per-Olo ...; Huculeci, R.; Hveem, K.; Iacoviello, L.; Ikram, M. K.; Jorgensen, T.; Joseph, B.; Jousilahti, P.; Jukema, J. W.; Kaaks, R.; Katzke, V.; Kavousi, M.; Kiechl, S.; Klotsche, J.; Konig, W.; Rosengren, Annik ...; Kubinova, R.; Kucharska-Newton ...; Lall, K.; Lehmann, N.; Leistner, D.; Linneberg, A.; Pablos, D. L.; Lorenz, T.; Lu, W. T.; Luksiene, D.; Lyngbakken, M.; Magnussen, C.; Malyutina, S.; Ibanez, A. M.; Masala, G.; Mathiesen, E. B.; Matsushita, K.; Meade, T. W.; Melander, O.; Meyer, H. E.; Moons, K. G. M.; Moreno-Iribas, C ...; Muller, D.; Munzel, T.; Nikitin, Y.; Nordestgaard, B. ...; Omland, T.; Onland, C.; Overvad, K.; Packard, C.; Pajak, A.; Palmieri, L.; Panagiotakos, D.; Panico, S.; Perez-Cornago, A ...; Peters, A.; Pietila, A.; Pikhart, H.; Psaty, B. M.; Quarti-Trevano, ...; Garcia, J. R. Q.; Riboli, E.; Ridker, P. M.; Rodriguez, B.; Rodriguez-Barran ...; Roussel, R.; Sacerdote, C.; Sans, S.; Sattar, N.; Schiborn, C.; Schmidt, B.; Schottker, B.; Schulze, M.; Schwartz, J. E.; Selmer, R. M.; Shea, S.; Shipley, M. J.; Sieri, S.; Soderberg, S.; Sofat, R.; Tamosiunas, A.; Thorand, B.; Tillmann, T.; Tjonneland, A.; Tong, T. Y. N.; Trichopoulou, A.; Tumino, R.; Tunstall-Pedoe, ...; Tybjaerg-Hansen, ...; Tzoulaki, J.; van der Heijden, ...; van der Schouw, ...; Verschuren, W. M ...; Volzke, H.; Waldeyer, C.; Wareham, N. J.; Weiderpass, E.; Weidinger, F.; Wild, P.; Willeit, J.; Willeit, P.; Wilsgaard, T.; Woodward, M.; Zeller, T.; Zhang, D. D.; Zhou, B.; show less...

About the subject

MEDICAL AND HEALTH SCIENCES: MEDICAL AND HEAL ...; and Clinical Medicin ...; and Cardiac and Card ...

Articles in the publication: European Heart J ...

By the university: University of Gothenburg; Umeå University

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