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| 2. |
- Austin, John, et al.
(författare)
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Chemistry-climate model simulations of spring Antarctic ozone
- 2010
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 115, s. D00M11-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Coupled chemistry-climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.
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| 3. |
- Struthers, Hamish, et al.
(författare)
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The simulation of the Antarctic ozone hole by chemistry-climate models
- 2009
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 9:17, s. 6363-6376
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While chemistry-climate models are able to reproduce many characteristics of the global total column ozone field and its long-term evolution, they have fared less well in simulating the commonly used diagnostic of the area of the Antarctic ozone hole i.e. the area within the 220 Dobson Unit (DU) contour. Two possible reasons for this are: (1) the underlying Global Climate Model (GCM) does not correctly simulate the size of the polar vortex, and (2) the stratospheric chemistry scheme incorporated into the GCM, and/or the model dynamics, results in systematic biases in the total column ozone fields such that the 220DU contour is no longer appropriate for delineating the edge of the ozone hole. Both causes are examined here with a view to developing ozone hole area diagnostics that better suit measurement-model inter-comparisons. The interplay between the shape of the meridional mixing barrier at the edge of the vortex and the meridional gradients in total column ozone across the vortex edge is investigated in measurements and in 5 chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Analysis of the simulation of the polar vortex in the CCMs shows that the first of the two possible causes does play a role in some models. This in turn affects the ability of the models to simulate the large observed meridional gradients in total column ozone. The second of the two causes also strongly affects the ability of the CCMs to track the observed size of the ozone hole. It is shown that by applying a common algorithm to the CCMs for selecting a delineating threshold unique to each model, a more appropriate diagnostic of ozone hole area can be generated that shows better agreement with that derived from observations.
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| 4. |
- Huck, P. E., et al.
(författare)
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Semi-empirical models for chlorine activation and ozone depletion in the Antarctic stratosphere : proof of concept
- 2013
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Ingår i: Atmospheric Chemistry And Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 13:6, s. 3237-3243
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Two semi-empirical models were developed for the Antarctic stratosphere to relate the shift of species within total chlorine (Cl-y = HCl + ClONO2 + HOCl + 2 x Cl-2 + 2xCl(2)O(2) + ClO + Cl) into the active forms (here: ClOx = 2xCl(2)O(2) + ClO), and to relate the rate of ozone destruction to ClOx. These two models provide a fast and computationally inexpensive way to describe the inter- and intra-annual evolution of ClOx and ozone mass deficit (OMD) in the Antarctic spring. The models are based on the underlying physics/chemistry of the system and capture the key chemical and physical processes in the Antarctic stratosphere that determine the interaction between climate change and Antarctic ozone depletion. They were developed considering bulk effects of chemical mechanisms for the duration of the Antarctic vortex period and quantities averaged over the vortex area. The model equations were regressed against observations of daytime ClO and OMD providing a set of empirical fit coefficients. Both semi-empirical models are able to explain much of the intra-and inter-annual variability observed in daily ClOx and OMD time series. This proof-of-concept paper outlines the semi-empirical approach to describing the evolution of Antarctic chlorine activation and ozone depletion.
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