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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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- Coppin, K. E. K., et al.
(författare)
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The SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey: the submillimetre properties of Lyman-break galaxies at z=3-5
- 2015
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 446:2, s. 1293-1304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present detections at 850 mu m of the Lyman-break galaxy (LBG) population at z approximate to 3, 4, and 5 using data from the Submillimetre Common User Bolometer Array 2 Cosmology Legacy Survey in the United Kingdom Infrared Deep Sky Survey 'Ultra Deep Survey' field. We employ stacking to probe beneath the survey limit, measuring the average 850 mu m flux density of LBGs at z approximate to 3, 4, and 5 with typical ultraviolet luminosities of L-1700 approximate to 10(29) erg s(-1) Hz(-1). We measure 850 mu m flux densities of (0.25 +/- 0.03), (0.41 +/- 0.06), and (0.88 +/- 0.23) mJy, respectively, finding that they contribute at most 20 per cent to the cosmic far-infrared (IR) background at 850 mu m. Fitting an appropriate range of spectral energy distributions to the z similar to 3, 4, and 5 LBG stacked 24-850 mu m fluxes, we derive IR luminosities of L8-1000 (mu m) approximate to 3.2, 5.5, and 11.0 x 10(11) L-circle dot [and star formation rates (SFRs) of approximate to 50-200M(circle dot) yr(-1)], respectively. We find that the evolution in the IR luminosity density of LBGs is broadly consistent with model predictions for the expected contribution of luminous-to-ultraluminous IR galaxies at these epochs. We observe a positive correlation between stellar mass and IR luminosity and confirm that, for a fixed mass, the reddest LBGs (UV slope beta -> 0) are redder due to dust extinction, with SFR (IR)/SFR (UV) increasing by about an order of magnitude over -2
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| 7. |
- Bourne, N., et al.
(författare)
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Evolution of cosmic star formation in the SCUBA-2 Cosmology Legacy Survey
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 467:2, s. 1360-1385
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present a new exploration of the cosmic star formation history and dust obscuration in massive galaxies at redshifts 0.5 10(10) M-O galaxies at 0.5 10. One third of this is accounted for by 450 mu m-detected sources, while one-fifth is attributed to UV-luminous sources (brighter than L-UV(*)), although even these are largely obscured. By extrapolating our results to include all stellar masses, we estimate a total SFRD that is in good agreement with previous results from IR and UV data at z
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| 8. |
- Koprowski, M. P., et al.
(författare)
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A direct calibration of thtae IRX-β relation in Lyman-break Galaxies at z = 3-5
- 2018
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 479:4, s. 4355-4366
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We use a sample of 4209 Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) at z ≃ 3, 4, and 5 in the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey Ultra Deep Survey field to investigate the relationship between the observed slope of the stellar continuum emission in the ultraviolet, β, and the thermal dust emission, as quantified via the so-called 'infrared excess' (IRX=LIR/LUV). Through a stacking analysis, we directly measure the 850-μm flux density of LBGs in our deep (0.9 mJy) James Clerk Maxwell Telescope SCUBA-2 850-μm map as well as deep public Herschel/SPIRE 250-, 350-, and 500-μm imaging. We establish functional forms for the IRX-β relation to z ~ 5, confirming that there is no significant redshift evolution of the relation, and that the resulting average IRX-β curve is consistent with a Calzetti-like attenuation law. Comparing our results with recent works in the literature, we confirm that discrepancies in the slope of the IRX-β relation are driven by biases in the methodology used to determine the ultraviolet slopes. Consistent results are found when IRX-β is evaluated by stacking in bins of stellar mass, and we argue that the near-linear IRX-M* relationship is a better proxy for correcting observed ultraviolet luminosities to total star formation rates, provided an accurate handle on M* and also gives clues as to the physical driver of the role of dust-obscured star formation in high-redshift galaxies.
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| 9. |
- Hardcastle, M. J., et al.
(författare)
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LOFAR/H-ATLAS: a deep low-frequency survey of the Herschel-ATLAS North Galactic Pole field
- 2016
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 462:2, s. 1910-1936
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present Low-Frequency Array (LOFAR) High-Band Array observations of the Herschel-ATLAS North Galactic Pole survey area. The survey we have carried out, consisting of four pointings covering around 142 deg(2) of sky in the frequency range 126-173 MHz, does not provide uniform noise coverage but otherwise is representative of the quality of data to be expected in the planned LOFAR wide-area surveys, and has been reduced using recently developed 'facet calibration' methods at a resolution approaching the full resolution of the data sets (similar to 10 x 6 arcsec) and an rms off-source noise that ranges from 100 mu Jy beam(-1) in the centre of the best fields to around 2 mJy beam(-1) at the furthest extent of our imaging. We describe the imaging, cataloguing and source identification processes, and present some initial science results based on a 5 sigma source catalogue. These include (i) an initial look at the radio/far-infrared correlation at 150 MHz, showing that many Herschel sources are not yet detected by LOFAR; (ii) number counts at 150 MHz, including, for the first time, observational constraints on the numbers of star-forming galaxies; (iii) the 150-MHz luminosity functions for active and star-forming galaxies, which agree well with determinations at higher frequencies at low redshift, and show strong redshift evolution of the star-forming population; and (iv) some discussion of the implications of our observations for studies of radio galaxy life cycles.
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| 10. |
- Stanley, Flora, 1990, et al.
(författare)
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The mean star formation rates of unobscured QSOs: searching for evidence of suppressed or enhanced star formation
- 2017
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Ingår i: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 472:2, s. 2221-2240
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We investigate the mean star formation rates (SFRs) in the host galaxies of similar to 3000 optically selected quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey within the Herschel-ATLAS fields, and a radio-luminous subsample covering the redshift range of z = 0.2-2.5. Using Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) and Herschel photometry (12-500 mu m) we construct composite spectral energy distributions (SEDs) in bins of redshift and active galactic nucleus (AGN) luminosity. We perform SED fitting to measure the mean infrared luminosity due to star formation, removing the contamination from AGN emission. We find that the mean SFRs show a weak positive trend with increasing AGN luminosity. However, we demonstrate that the observed trend could be due to an increase in black hole (BH) mass (and a consequent increase of inferred stellar mass) with increasing AGN luminosity. We compare to a sample of X-ray selected AGN and find that the two populations have consistent mean SFRs when matched in AGN luminosity and redshift. On the basis of the available virial BH masses, and the evolving BH mass to stellar mass relationship, we find that the mean SFRs of our QSO sample are consistent with those of main sequence star-forming galaxies. Similarly the radio-luminous QSOs have mean SFRs that are consistent with both the overall QSO sample and with star-forming galaxies on the main sequence. In conclusion, on average QSOs reside on the main sequence of star-forming galaxies, and the observed positive trend between the mean SFRs and AGN luminosity can be attributed to BH mass and redshift dependencies.
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