| 1. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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An agent-based model for assessing the impacts of decoupled agricultural support on landscape values
- 2009
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In this article we present an empirical agent-based landscape model that is capable of simulating the consequences of changes in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)—or any other economic parameters—on landscape mosaic and biodiversity in a real agricultural region. The model links changes in policy to structural change in agricultural production and concomitant impacts on the landscape (measured using relevant indicators). The utility of our approach is that it can use anonymous survey data on individual farms combined with generally available landscape metrics to generate an empirical agent-based model of a real agricultural landscape. We use the model to evaluate the consequences of the 2005 decoupling reform on landscape mosaic and biodiversity for a cross-section of case-study regions in EU-27. Our results demonstrated that eliminating the link between support payments and production has ostensibly quite negative consequences for the landscape but only in particular regions and circumstances. In other regions decoupled support was shown to be redundant in terms of generating landscape benefits. Implications for continued CAP reform are discussed
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| 2. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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Estimating the resilience value of soil biodiversity in agriculture: a stochastic simulation approach
- 2011
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Ingår i: Proceedings EAAE 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland. ; , s. 1-16
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- Abstract in UndeterminedCharacteristic of ecosystems is that different organisms can have similar functions and hence provide similar ecosystem services. Consequently functional diversity can maintain the rate of services despite environmental fluctuations. In this paper we present a method for estimating the resilience value of biodiversity. Central to a resilience perspective on biological conservation is consideration of uncertainty about the future. To do this we propose stochastic simulation as a practical approach for valuing resilience due to the ease of incorporating uncertain variables. We demonstrate the approach by developing a stochastic simulation model for valuing soil biodiversity in agriculture. Our results indicate that the long time frames involved in soil processes create a significant incentive to perpetuate unsustainable farming systems and hence there might be a need for policy intervention. However we also show that investing in soil biodiversity conservation can provide significant risk diversification benefits that are not accounted for in a deterministic evaluation. These benefits can be estimated through stochastic simulation.
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| 3. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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Impact of CAP reform on the environment: some regional results
- 2010
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction of the Single Farm Payment (SPS) in 2005 constitutes perhaps the most radical reform of the Common Agricultural Policy ever. This payment has replaced almost all previous forms of subsidies to farmers and is decoupled, i.e. paid regardless of whether the farmer produces commodities as long as their land is kept in Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition (GAEC). Such a radical reform was expected to have a profound impact on European agriculture; in particular concern was raised about the impacts on historical landscapes and biodiversity. This paper presents the findings of a large EU project, IDEMA, on the potential environmental impacts of the 2003 CAP reform for a selection of case-study regions. Due to the complexity of the issues at hand and the lack of historical data, the assessment was based on dynamic agent-based modelling with the extended AgriPoliS model. Our results indicated small impacts in relatively productive regions, since land use remains largely unchanged. In marginal agricultural regions, however, decoupling was shown to have a negative impact on biodiversity and landscape mosaic because of the homogenisation of land use that results from land being taken out of production. Existing agri-environmental schemes and national support acted however to buffer the full potential impacts of decoupling on landscape values in these regions. The effects of the reform would have been more radical if there was no link between the decoupled payment and land, i.e. via the GAEC obligation. In this case the model results indicated that farmers would leave the sector at a faster rate and average farm size would increase (thereby improving competitiveness). On the other hand, significant areas of agricultural land, primarily grassland, were abandoned in the modelled high-cost or marginal regions. Hence, it might be motivated to strengthen agri-environmental schemes under a Bond-type scheme in affected regions to preserve landscape values (depending on public willingness to pay for landscape preservation)
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| 4. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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Managing Soil Ecosystem Services in Agriculture: a Production Function Approach
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Soil natural capital through its delivery of ecosystem services is pivotal for agricultural production. We develop a production-function approach and use data from long-term agricultural field experiments in Europe and the US to show that changes in soil organic carbon (SOC)-through its relation to ecosystem services-can be used to value changes in soil natural capital. Generally, declining SOC reduces both maximum yield and fertilizer use efficiency in the future, thereby depreciating soil natural capital. The depreciation cost will depend on the current state of SOC and the choice of discount rate. Valuing SOC as natural capital makes way for optimising soil ecosystem services in agricultural production.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Brady, Mark, et al.
(författare)
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The impact of decoupling and modulation in the European Union: a sectoral and farm level assessment
- 2010
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Introduction of the Single Payment Scheme (SPS) in 2005 constitutes perhaps the most radical reform of the Common Agricultural Policy ever. This payment has replaced almost all previous forms of subsidies to farmers and is decoupled, i.e., paid regardless of whether the farmer produces or not, as long as land is kept in good agricultural and environmental condition (GAEC). Such a radical reform was expected to have a profound impact on European agriculture. This paper presents a synthesis of the findings of a large EU project, IDEMA. The aim was to assess the potential impacts of decoupling on production, prices, trade flows, farm income, structural change and the environment at the EU and regional levels. Due to the complexity of the issues at hand and the lack of historical data, three complementary evaluation approaches were used: surveys of farmers’ intentions, sector modelling and agent-based models of regional structural change. Surveys and modelling results provide no strong evidence that farmers intend to change their strategic decision to exit agriculture. Instead structural change is shown to slow down when payments are decoupled because minimal land management becomes an additional source of income. Decoupling as a result is also shown to reduce farmers’ off-farm labour supply. In the New Member States the impact of the accession is the dominating effect: the introduction of CAP payments results in larger numbers of farmers remaining in the sector and increased competition for land. Other aims of the reform included boosting farm incomes and improving competitiveness. The reform has also, undoubtedly, increased market orientation of EU farmers and reduced trade distortions. The SPS is shown to increase farm incomes but also land rental prices in most regions. Capitalization of payments in land values over time will, however, erode the ability of the reform to support incomes in the long run as incumbent farmers retire or otherwise leave the sector. The impacts of the reform would have been very different if there was no link between the decoupled payment and land. Without the GAEC obligation model results indicate a strong increase in average farm size as greater numbers of farmers would leave the sector and make their land available to remaining farms (significant areas of land are though shown to be abandoned in the most marginal regions). Due to the significantly lower land (rental) prices and size economies that emerge from this policy, profits per hectare are generally higher. Thus it can be argued that the objective of improving competitiveness has not been achieved due to slower structural change and the higher land prices that follow from the 2003 reform
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| 7. |
- Brady, Mark
(författare)
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What land-use pattern emerges with landscape-scale management? An ecosystem-service perspective
- 2014
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- It is argued that landscape-scale management (LSM) of habitat is better than farm-scale management (FSM) when considering the externality of ecosystem services. Given this advantage, how to regulate individual farmers' land-use decisions to achieve the LSM solution is an issue of common concern both for farmers and policymakers. Specifically, it needs to be determined if there exists a dominant land-use pattern that characterizes the LSM solution compared to FSM solution. In addition to the area of habitat, we design a land-use pattern index (LPI) to characterize the configuration of habitat and project itonto the sharing-sparing continuum. We find that the LSM solution is characterized by less intensive farming, and configurations of habitat are closer to land sharing. However, as crop dependency on ecosystem-services declines, the land-use patterns with LSM and FSM converge and the configurations of habitat start to resemble to land sparing. In addition, when habitat quality improves the configurations of habitat on the border farms become important. Finally, the less mobile service-providers are, the more farmers should focus on land-use patterns on their own farms. Our indices of land-use patterns could be integrated into the cross-compliance of CAP (Common Agricultural Policy) to better manage ecosystem-service in the future.
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| 8. |
- Sahrbacher, Christoph, et al.
(författare)
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Modelling spatial relationships between ecosystem services and agricultural production in an agent-based model
- 2014
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Ingår i: ; , s. 1311-1318
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Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- The collective impacts of farmers' land management decisions on above ground ecosystem services (ES) and their implications for agriculture are poorly understood. Managing habitat to provide ES is costly but at the same time it can support higher yields through, e.g., pollination or natural pest control. Due to the mobility of ES-providers (bees, natural enemies) farmers providing habitat might also benefit their neighbours, creating interdependencies among their decisions. Interdependencies among farmers' land-use decisions and the flow of ES in space can be considered by integrating agent-based modelling and evidence-based ES models. Such integration requires a trade-off between the land-use details required to capture relevant ecological dynamics of ES in a landscape and the simplified landscape modelling in agent-based models. This paper shows how details of land use can be increased in the agent-based model AgriPoliS that simulates agricultural structural change. Non-agricultural land in AgriPoliS is differentiated into different land uses, i.e. settlements and natural habitats. Furthermore, the size distribution of these landscape elements and their distribution in space are considered. The improvement of the landscape modelling is a prerequisite for detailed analysis of policies supporting biodiversity and their impact on agricultural production and farm income.
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