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- Stampalija, T., et al.
(författare)
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Fetal cerebral Doppler changes and outcome in late preterm fetal growth restriction : prospective cohort study
- 2020
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Ingår i: Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology. - : Wiley. - 0960-7692 .- 1469-0705. ; 56:2, s. 173-181
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objectives To explore the association between fetal umbilical and middle cerebral artery (MCA) Doppler abnormalities and outcome in late preterm pregnancies at risk of fetal growth restriction. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of singleton pregnancies at risk of fetal growth restriction at 32+ 0 to 36+ 6weeks of gestation, enrolled in 33 European centers between 2017 and 2018, in which umbilical and fetal MCA Doppler velocimetry was performed. Pregnancies were considered at risk of fetal growth restriction if they had estimated fetal weight and/or abdominal circumference (AC) < 10th percentile, abnormal arterial Doppler and/or a fall in AC growth velocity of more than 40 percentile points from the 20-week scan. Composite adverse outcome comprised both immediate adverse birth outcome and major neonatal morbidity. Using a range of cut-off values, the association of MCA pulsatility index and umbilicocerebral ratio (UCR) with composite adverse outcome was explored. Results The study population comprised 856 women. There were two (0.2%) intrauterine deaths. Median gestational age at delivery was 38 (interquartile range (IQR), 37-39) weeks and birth weight was 2478 (IQR, 2140-2790) g. Compared with infants with normal outcome, those with composite adverse outcome (n= 93; 11%) were delivered at an earlier gestational age (36 vs 38 weeks) and had a lower birth weight (1900 vs 2540 g). The first Doppler observation of MCA pulsatility index < 5th percentile and UCR Z-score above gestational-age-specific thresholds (1.5 at 32-33weeks and 1.0 at 34-36weeks) had the highest relative risks (RR) for composite adverse outcome (RR 2.2 (95% CI, 1.5-3.2) and RR 2.0 (95% CI, 1.4-3.0), respectively). After adjustment for confounders, the association between UCR Z-score and composite adverse outcome remained significant, although gestational age at delivery and birth-weight Z-score had a stronger association. Conclusion In this prospective multicenter study, signs of cerebral blood flow redistribution were found to be associated with adverse outcome in late preterm singleton pregnancies at risk of fetal growth restriction. Whether cerebral redistribution is a marker describing the severity of fetal growth restriction or an independent risk factor for adverse outcome remains unclear, and whether it is useful for clinical management can be answered only in a randomized trial. (C) 2020 The Authors. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.
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- Mylrea-Foley, Bronacha, et al.
(författare)
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Longitudinal Doppler Assessments in Late Preterm Fetal Growth Restriction
- 2023
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Ingår i: Ultraschall in der Medizin. - : Georg Thieme Verlag KG. - 0172-4614. ; 44:1, s. 56-67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose To assess the longitudinal variation of the ratio of umbilical and cerebral artery pulsatility index (UCR) in late preterm fetal growth restriction (FGR). Materials and Methods A prospective European multicenter observational study included women with a singleton pregnancy, 32 +0-36 +6, at risk of FGR (estimated fetal weight [EFW] or abdominal circumference [AC] <10 th percentile, abnormal arterial Doppler or fall in AC from 20-week scan of >40 percentile points). The primary outcome was a composite of abnormal condition at birth or major neonatal morbidity. UCR was categorized as normal (<0.9) or abnormal (≥0.9). UCR was assessed by gestational age at measurement interval to delivery, and by individual linear regression coefficient in women with two or more measurements. Results 856 women had 2770 measurements; 696 (81%) had more than one measurement (median 3 (IQR 2-4). At inclusion, 63 (7%) a UCR ≥0.9. These delivered earlier and had a lower birth weight and higher incidence of adverse outcome (30% vs. 9%, relative risk 3.2; 95%CI 2.1-5.0) than women with a normal UCR at inclusion. Repeated measurements after an abnormal UCR at inclusion were abnormal again in 67% (95%CI 55-80), but after a normal UCR the chance of finding an abnormal UCR was 6% (95%CI 5-7%). The risk of composite adverse outcome was similar using the first or subsequent UCR values. Conclusion An abnormal UCR is likely to be abnormal again at a later measurement, while after a normal UCR the chance of an abnormal UCR is 5-7% when repeated weekly. Repeated measurements do not predict outcome better than the first measurement, most likely due to the most compromised fetuses being delivered after an abnormal UCR.
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- Parker, P, et al.
(författare)
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Progress in integrated assessment and modelling
- 2002
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Ingår i: Environmental Modelling & Software. - 1364-8152. ; 17:3, s. 209-217
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Environmental processes have been modelled for decades. However. the need for integrated assessment and modeling (IAM) has,town as the extent and severity of environmental problems in the 21st Century worsens. The scale of IAM is not restricted to the global level as in climate change models, but includes local and regional models of environmental problems. This paper discusses various definitions of IAM and identifies five different types of integration that Lire needed for the effective solution of environmental problems. The future is then depicted in the form of two brief scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. The current state of IAM is then briefly reviewed. The issues of complexity and validation in IAM are recognised as more complex than in traditional disciplinary approaches. Communication is identified as a central issue both internally among team members and externally with decision-makers. stakeholders and other scientists. Finally it is concluded that the process of integrated assessment and modelling is considered as important as the product for any particular project. By learning to work together and recognise the contribution of all team members and participants, it is believed that we will have a strong scientific and social basis to address the environmental problems of the 21st Century.
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- Gardner, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Field boundary features can stabilise bee populations and the pollination of mass-flowering crops in rotational systems
- 2021
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Ingår i: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 58:10, s. 2287-2304
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pollinators experience large spatiotemporal fluctuations in resource availability when mass-flowering crops are rotated with resource-poor cereal crops. Yet, few studies have considered the effect this has on pollinator population stability, nor how this might be mitigated to maintain consistent crop pollination services. We assess the potential of boundary features (standard narrow 1 m grassy margins, hedgerows and wide 4 m agri-environment margins) to support and stabilise pollinator populations and pollination service in agricultural landscapes under crop rotation. Assuming a 6-year rotation, we use a process-based pollinator model to predict yearly pollinator population size and in-crop visitation rates to oilseed rape and field bean across 117 study landscapes in England with varying amounts of boundary features. We model both ground-nesting bumblebees and solitary bees and compare the predictions including and excluding boundary features from the landscapes. Ground-nesting bumblebee populations, whose longer-lifetime colonies benefit from continuity of resources, were larger and more stable (relative to the no-features scenario) in landscapes with more boundary features. Ground-nesting solitary bee populations were also larger but not significantly more stable, except with the introduction of wide permanent agri-environment margins, due to their shorter lifetimes and shorter foraging/dispersal ranges. Crop visitation by ground-nesting bumblebees was greater and more stable in landscapes with more boundary features, partly due to increased colony growth prior to crop flowering. Time averaged crop visitation by ground-nesting solitary bees was slightly lower, due to females dividing their foraging time between boundary features and the crop. However, despite this, the minimum pollination service delivered was higher, due to the more stable delivery. Synthesis and applications. Field boundary features have an important role in stabilising pollinator populations and pollination service in rotational systems, although maintenance of larger semi-natural habitat patches may be more effective for stabilising less mobile solitary bee populations. We recommend using combinations of boundary features, accounting for pollinator range when spacing features/rotating crops, and synchronising boundary feature management with crop rotation to maximise their stabilising benefits.
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- Gardner, Emma, et al.
(författare)
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Reliably predicting pollinator abundance : Challenges of calibrating process-based ecological models
- 2020
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Ingår i: Methods in Ecology and Evolution. - 2041-210X. ; 11:12, s. 1673-1689
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Pollination is a key ecosystem service for global agriculture but evidence of pollinator population declines is growing. Reliable spatial modelling of pollinator abundance is essential if we are to identify areas at risk of pollination service deficit and effectively target resources to support pollinator populations. Many models exist which predict pollinator abundance but few have been calibrated against observational data from multiple habitats to ensure their predictions are accurate. We selected the most advanced process-based pollinator abundance model available and calibrated it for bumblebees and solitary bees using survey data collected at 239 sites across Great Britain. We compared three versions of the model: one parameterised using estimates based on expert opinion, one where the parameters are calibrated using a purely data-driven approach and one where we allow the expert opinion estimates to inform the calibration process. All three model versions showed significant agreement with the survey data, demonstrating this model's potential to reliably map pollinator abundance. However, there were significant differences between the nesting/floral attractiveness scores obtained by the two calibration methods and from the original expert opinion scores. Our results highlight a key universal challenge of calibrating spatially explicit, process-based ecological models. Notably, the desire to reliably represent complex ecological processes in finely mapped landscapes necessarily generates a large number of parameters, which are challenging to calibrate with ecological and geographical data that are often noisy, biased, asynchronous and sometimes inaccurate. Purely data-driven calibration can therefore result in unrealistic parameter values, despite appearing to improve model-data agreement over initial expert opinion estimates. We therefore advocate a combined approach where data-driven calibration and expert opinion are integrated into an iterative Delphi-like process, which simultaneously combines model calibration and credibility assessment. This may provide the best opportunity to obtain realistic parameter estimates and reliable model predictions for ecological systems with expert knowledge gaps and patchy ecological data.
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- Hodge, Simon, et al.
(författare)
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Design and Planning of a Transdisciplinary Investigation into Farmland Pollinators : Rationale, Co-Design, and Lessons Learned
- 2022
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Ingår i: Sustainability (Switzerland). - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 14:17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To provide a complete portrayal of the multiple factors negatively impacting insects in agricultural landscapes it is necessary to assess the concurrent incidence, magnitude, and interactions among multiple stressors over substantial biogeographical scales. Trans-national ecological field investigations with wide-ranging stakeholders typically encounter numerous challenges during the design planning stages, not least that the scientific soundness of a spatially replicated study design must account for the substantial geographic and climatic variation among distant sites. ‘PoshBee’ (Pan-European assessment, monitoring, and mitigation of Stressors on the Health of Bees) is a multi-partner transdisciplinary agroecological project established to investigate the suite of stressors typically encountered by pollinating insects in European agricultural landscapes. To do this, PoshBee established a network of 128 study sites across eight European countries and collected over 50 measurements and samples relating to the nutritional, toxicological, pathogenic, and landscape components of the bees’ environment. This paper describes the development process, rationale, and end-result of each aspect of the of the PoshBee field investigation. We describe the main issues and challenges encountered during the design stages and highlight a number of actions or processes that may benefit other multi-partner research consortia planning similar large-scale studies. It was soon identified that in a multi-component study design process, the development of interaction and communication networks involving all collaborators and stakeholders requires considerable time and resources. It was also necessary at each planning stage to be mindful of the needs and objectives of all stakeholders and partners, and further challenges inevitably arose when practical limitations, such as time restrictions and labour constraints, were superimposed upon prototype study designs. To promote clarity for all stakeholders, for each sub-component of the study, there should be a clear record of the rationale and reasoning that outlines how the final design transpired, what compromises were made, and how the requirements of different stakeholders were accomplished. Ultimately, multi-national agroecological field studies such as PoshBee benefit greatly from the involvement of diverse stakeholders and partners, ranging from field ecologists, project managers, policy legislators, mathematical modelers, and farmer organisations. While the execution of the study highlighted the advantages and benefits of large-scale transdisciplinary projects, the long planning period emphasized the need to formally describe a design framework that could facilitate the design process of future multi-partner collaborations.
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