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- White, Christopher J., et al.
(författare)
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Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Meteorological Applications. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 24:3, s. 315-325
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.
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| 2. |
- Unsalan, Ozan, et al.
(författare)
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The Sariçiçek howardite fall in Turkey : Source crater of HED meteorites on Vesta and impact risk of Vestoids
- 2019
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Ingår i: Meteoritics and Planetary Science. - Hoboken : John Wiley & Sons. - 1086-9379 .- 1945-5100. ; 54:5, s. 953-1008
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The Sariçiçek howardite meteorite shower consisting of 343 documented stones occurred on September 2, 2015 in Turkey and is the first documented howardite fall. Cosmogenic isotopes show that Sariçiçek experienced a complex cosmic‐ray exposure history, exposed during ~12–14 Ma in a regolith near the surface of a parent asteroid, and that an ~1 m sized meteoroid was launched by an impact 22 ± 2 Ma ago to Earth (as did one‐third of all HED meteorites). SIMS dating of zircon and baddeleyite yielded 4550.4 ± 2.5 Ma and 4553 ± 8.8 Ma crystallization ages for the basaltic magma clasts. The apatite U‐Pb age of 4525 ± 17 Ma, K‐Ar age of ~3.9 Ga, and the U,Th‐He ages of 1.8 ± 0.7 and 2.6 ± 0.3 Ga are interpreted to represent thermal metamorphic and impact‐related resetting ages, respectively. Petrographic; geochemical; and O‐, Cr‐, and Ti‐isotopic studies confirm that Sariçiçek belongs to the normal clan of HED meteorites. Petrographic observations and analysis of organic material indicate a small portion of carbonaceous chondrite material in the Sariçiçek regolith and organic contamination of the meteorite after a few days on soil. Video observations of the fall show an atmospheric entry at 17.3 ± 0.8 km s−1 from NW; fragmentations at 37, 33, 31, and 27 km altitude; and provide a pre‐atmospheric orbit that is the first dynamical link between the normal HED meteorite clan and the inner Main Belt. Spectral data indicate the similarity of Sariçiçek with the Vesta asteroid family (V‐class) spectra, a group of asteroids stretching to delivery resonances, which includes (4) Vesta. Dynamical modeling of meteoroid delivery to Earth shows that the complete disruption of a ~1 km sized Vesta family asteroid or a ~10 km sized impact crater on Vesta is required to provide sufficient meteoroids ≤4 m in size to account for the influx of meteorites from this HED clan. The 16.7 km diameter Antionia impact crater on Vesta was formed on terrain of the same age as given by the 4He retention age of Sariçiçek. Lunar scaling for crater production to crater counts of its ejecta blanket show it was formed ~22 Ma ago.
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