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1.
  • Abarca-Gómez, Leandra, et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 390:10113, s. 2627-2642
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.METHODS: We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5-19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5-19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FINDINGS: Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (-0·01 kg/m(2) per decade; 95% credible interval -0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m(2) per decade (0·69-1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m(2) per decade (0·64-1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m(2) per decade (-0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m(2) per decade (0·50-1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4-1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8-6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5-1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7-9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0-12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8-10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4-19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3-14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7-29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5-38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44-117) million girls and 117 (70-178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24-89) million girls and 74 (39-125) million boys worldwide were obese.INTERPRETATION: The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults.FUNDING: Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.
2.
  • Di Cesare, Mariachiara, et al. (författare)
  • Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014 a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to <20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to <25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to <30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to <35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to <40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI = 35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women.Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.
3.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (författare)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: eLIFE. - 2050-084X. ; 5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.522.7) and 16.5 cm (13.319.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
4.
  • Zhou, Bin, et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015 a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10064, s. 37-55
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19.1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127.0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125.7-128.3) in men and 122.3 mm Hg (121.0-123.6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78.7 mm Hg (77.9-79.5) for men and 76.7 mm Hg (75.9-77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4-27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8-22.5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. Funding Wellcome Trust.
5.
  • Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole, et al. (författare)
  • Outdoor air pollution and risk for kidney parenchyma cancer in 14 European cohorts
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - 0020-7136. ; 140:7, s. 1528-1537
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several studies have indicated weakly increased risk for kidney cancer among occupational groups exposed to gasoline vapors, engine exhaust, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and other air pollutants, although not consistently. It was the aim to investigate possible associations between outdoor air pollution at the residence and the incidence of kidney parenchyma cancer in the general population. We used data from 14 European cohorts from the ESCAPE study. We geocoded and assessed air pollution concentrations at baseline addresses by land-use regression models for particulate matter (PM10 , PM2.5 , PMcoarse , PM2.5 absorbance (soot)) and nitrogen oxides (NO2 , NOx ), and collected data on traffic. We used Cox regression models with adjustment for potential confounders for cohort-specific analyses and random effects models for meta-analyses to calculate summary hazard ratios (HRs). The 289,002 cohort members contributed 4,111,908 person-years at risk. During follow-up (mean 14.2 years) 697 incident cancers of the kidney parenchyma were diagnosed. The meta-analyses showed higher HRs in association with higher PM concentration, e.g. HR=1.57 (95%CI: 0.81-3.01) per 5μg/m(3) PM2.5 and HR=1.36 (95%CI: 0.84-2.19) per 10(-5) m(-1) PM2.5 absorbance, albeit never statistically significant. The HRs in association with nitrogen oxides and traffic density on the nearest street were slightly above one. Sensitivity analyses among participants who did not change residence during follow-up showed stronger associations, but none were statistically significant. This study provides suggestive evidence that exposure to outdoor PM at the residence may be associated with higher risk for kidney parenchyma cancer; the results should be interpreted cautiously as associations may be due to chance.
6.
  • Caini, Saverio, et al. (författare)
  • Coffee, tea and melanoma risk : findings from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 140:10, s. 2246-2255
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • In vitro and animal studies suggest that bioactive constituents of coffee and tea may have anticarcinogenic effects against cutaneous melanoma; however, epidemiological evidence is limited to date. We examined the relationships between coffee (total, caffeinated or decaffeinated) and tea consumption and risk of melanoma in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). EPIC is a multicentre prospective study that enrolled over 500,000 participants aged 25–70 years from ten European countries in 1992–2000. Information on coffee and tea drinking was collected at baseline using validated country-specific dietary questionnaires. We used adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the associations between coffee and tea consumption and melanoma risk. Overall, 2,712 melanoma cases were identified during a median follow-up of 14.9 years among 476,160 study participants. Consumption of caffeinated coffee was inversely associated with melanoma risk among men (HR for highest quartile of consumption vs. non-consumers 0.31, 95% CI 0.14–0.69) but not among women (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.62–1.47). There were no statistically significant associations between consumption of decaffeinated coffee or tea and the risk of melanoma among both men and women. The consumption of caffeinated coffee was inversely associated with melanoma risk among men in this large cohort study. Further investigations are warranted to confirm our findings and clarify the possible role of caffeine and other coffee compounds in reducing the risk of melanoma.
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7.
  • Zamora-Ros, Raul, et al. (författare)
  • Dietary flavonoid intake and colorectal cancer risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition (EPIC) cohort
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 140:8, s. 1836-1844
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Flavonoids have been shown to inhibit colon cancer cell proliferation in vitro and protect against colorectal carcinogenesis in animal models. However, epidemiological evidence on the potential role of flavonoid intake in colorectal cancer (CRC) development remains sparse and inconsistent. We evaluated the association between dietary intakes of total flavonoids and their subclasses and risk of development of CRC, within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. A cohort of 477,312 adult men and women were recruited in 10 European countries. At baseline, dietary intakes of total flavonoids and individual subclasses were estimated using centre-specific validated dietary questionnaires and composition data from the Phenol-Explorer database. During an average of 11 years of follow-up, 4,517 new cases of primary CRC were identified, of which 2,869 were colon (proximal = 1,298 and distal = 1,266) and 1,648 rectal tumours. No association was found between total flavonoid intake and the risk of overall CRC (HR for comparison of extreme quintiles 1.05, 95% CI 0.93–1.18; p-trend = 0.58) or any CRC subtype. No association was also observed with any intake of individual flavonoid subclasses. Similar results were observed for flavonoid intake expressed as glycosides or aglycone equivalents. Intake of total flavonoids and flavonoid subclasses, as estimated from dietary questionnaires, did not show any association with risk of CRC development.
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8.
  • Buckland, G., et al. (författare)
  • Healthy lifestyle index and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the EPIC cohort study
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - 0020-7136. ; 137:3, s. 598-606
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Several modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol, certain dietary factors and weight are independently associated with gastric cancer (GC); however, their combined impact on GC risk is unknown. We constructed a healthy lifestyle index to investigate the joint influence of these behaviors on GC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The analysis included 461,550 participants (662 first incident GC cases) with a mean follow-up of 11.4 years. A healthy lifestyle index was constructed, assigning 1 point for each healthy behavior related to smoking status, alcohol consumption and diet quality (represented by the Mediterranean diet) for assessing overall GC and also body mass index for cardia GC and 0 points otherwise. Risk of GC was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models while adjusting for relevant confounders. The highest versus lowest score in the healthy lifestyle index was associated with a significant lower risk of GC, by 51% overall (HR 0.49 95% CI 0.35, 0.70), by 77% for cardia GC (HR 0.23 95% CI 0.08, 0.68) and by 47% for noncardia GC (HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32, 0.87), p-trends<0.001. Population attributable risk calculations showed that 18.8% of all GC and 62.4% of cardia GC cases could have been prevented if participants in this population had followed the healthy lifestyle behaviors of this index. Adopting several healthy lifestyle behaviors including not smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, eating a healthy diet and maintaining a normal weight is associated with a large decreased risk of GC. What's new? Several modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking status, alcohol consumption, diet quality and weight, have been independently associated with gastric cancer. Behavioral patterns often cluster, however, lifestyle scores can be used to analyse overlapping risk factors. In this study, the authors used a healthy-lifestyle index to evaluate the combined effects of all of the above factors on the risk of developing gastric cancer (GC). They found that following a healthy lifestyle dramatically decreases the burden of gastric cancer.
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9.
  • Huang, Jiaqi, et al. (författare)
  • Helicobacter pylori infection, chronic corpus atrophic gastritis and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort : A nested case-control study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 140:8, s. 1727-1735
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The association between H. pylori infection and pancreatic cancer risk remains controversial. We conducted a nested case-control study with 448 pancreatic cancer cases and their individually matched control subjects, based on the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, to determine whether there was an altered pancreatic cancer risk associated with H. pylori infection and chronic corpus atrophic gastritis. Conditional logistic regression models were applied to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for matching factors and other potential confounders. Our results showed that pancreatic cancer risk was neither associated with H. pylori seropositivity (OR = 0.96; 95% CI: 0.70, 1.31) nor CagA seropositivity (OR = 1.07; 95% CI: 0.77, 1.48). We also did not find any excess risk among individuals seropositive for H. pylori but seronegative for CagA, compared with the group seronegative for both antibodies (OR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.63, 1.38). However, we found that chronic corpus atrophic gastritis was non-significantly associated with an increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR = 1.35; 95% CI: 0.77, 2.37), and although based on small numbers, the excess risk was particularly marked among individuals seronegative for both H. pylori and CagA (OR = 5.66; 95% CI: 1.59, 20.19, p value for interaction < 0.01). Our findings provided evidence supporting the null association between H. pylori infection and pancreatic cancer risk in western European populations. However, the suggested association between chronic corpus atrophic gastritis and pancreatic cancer risk warrants independent verification in future studies, and, if confirmed, further studies on the underlying mechanisms.
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10.
  • Jeurnink, Suzanne M., et al. (författare)
  • Plasma carotenoids, vitamin C, retinol and tocopherols levels and pancreatic cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition: A nested case-control study Plasma micronutrients and pancreatic cancer risk
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - 0020-7136. ; 136:6, s. E665-E676
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Evidence of a protective effect of several antioxidants and other nutrients on pancreatic cancer risk is inconsistent. The aim of this study was to investigate the association for prediagnostic plasma levels of carotenoids, vitamin C, retinol and tocopherols with risk of pancreatic cancer in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). 446 incident exocrine pancreatic cancer cases were matched to 446 controls by age at blood collection, study center, sex, date and time of blood collection, fasting status and hormone use. Plasma carotenoids (- and -carotene, lycopene, -cryptoxanthin, canthaxanthin, zeaxanthin and lutein), - and -tocopherol and retinol were measured by reverse phase high-performance liquid chromatography and plasma vitamin C by a colorimetric assay. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) with 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) for pancreatic cancer risk were estimated using a conditional logistic regression analysis, adjusted for smoking status, smoking duration and intensity, waist circumference, cotinine levels and diabetes status. Inverse associations with pancreatic cancer risk were found for plasma -carotene (IRR highest vs. lowest quartile 0.52, 95%CI 0.31-0.88, p for trend=0.02), zeaxanthin (IRR highest vs. lowest quartile 0.53, 95%CI 0.30-0.94, p for trend=0.06) and -tocopherol (IRR highest vs. lowest quartile 0.62, 95%CI 0.39-0.99, p for trend=0.08. For - and -carotene, lutein, sum of carotenoids and -tocopherol, heterogeneity between geographical regions was observed. In conclusion, our results show that higher plasma concentrations of -carotene, zeaxanthin and -tocopherol may be inversely associated with risk of pancreatic cancer, but further studies are warranted. What's new? Fruits and vegetables may play a role in the prevention of pancreatic cancer, but associations between the antioxidants those foods contain and disease risk remain unclear. In this study, pancreatic cancer risk was inversely associated with increased prediagnostic plasma concentrations of the antioxidants -carotene, zeaxanthin, and -tocopherol. Geographic variations were also detected. In Northern European countries, inverse associations with risk were found for blood levels of several carotenoids, whereas the association was strongest for -tocopherol in Southern European countries. The role of carotenoids and vitamins should be considered in subsequent investigations of the etiology of pancreatic cancer.
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