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1.
  • NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD RisC), et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 390:10113, s. 2627-2642
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Findings Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24–89) million girls and 74 (39–125) million boys worldwide were obese. Interpretation The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. Funding Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.
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2.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (författare)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: eLife. - 2050-084X. ; 5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3- 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8- 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
3.
  • Di Cesare, M., et al. (författare)
  • Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m 2 [underweight], 18.5 kg/m 2 to <20 kg/m 2 , 20 kg/m 2 to <25 kg/m 2 , 25 kg/m 2 to <30 kg/m 2 , 30 kg/m 2 to <35 kg/m 2 , 35 kg/m 2 to <40 kg/m 2 , ≥40 kg/m 2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m 2 (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m 2 (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m 2 (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m 2 (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m 2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m 2 (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m 2 (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m 2 (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m 2 ). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.
4.
  • Wormser, David, et al. (författare)
  • Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - Oxford University Press. - 1464-3685. ; 41:5, s. 1419-1433
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain. Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies. Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators. Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
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5.
  • Zhou, Bin, et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 389:10064, s. 37-55
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. Funding Wellcome Trust.
6.
  • Di Cesare, Mariachiara, et al. (författare)
  • Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014 : a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.</p><p>Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (&lt;18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to &lt;20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to &lt;25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to &lt;30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to &lt;35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to &lt;40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.</p><p>Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI = 35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women.</p><p>Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.</p>
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7.
  • Di Cesare, Mariachiara, et al. (författare)
  • Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014 a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19.2 million participants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p><strong>Background</strong> Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries.</p><p><strong>Methods</strong> We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (&lt;18.5 kg/m(2) [underweight], 18.5 kg/m(2) to &lt;20 kg/m(2), 20 kg/m(2) to &lt;25 kg/m(2), 25 kg/m(2) to &lt;30 kg/m(2), 30 kg/m(2) to &lt;35 kg/m(2), 35 kg/m(2) to &lt;40 kg/m(2), = 40 kg/m(2) [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue.</p><p><strong>Findings</strong> We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m(2) (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m(2) (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m(2) (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m(2) (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m(2) in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m(2) (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m(2) (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m(2) (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI = 35 kg/m(2)). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women.</p><p><strong>Interpretation</strong> If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia. </p>
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8.
  • Beelen, Rob, et al. (författare)
  • Effects of long-term exposure to air pollution on natural-cause mortality: an analysis of 22 European cohorts within the multicentre ESCAPE project
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 383:9919, s. 785-795
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Few studies on long-term exposure to air pollution and mortality have been reported from Europe. Within the multicentre European Study of Cohorts for Air Pollution Effects (ESCAPE), we aimed to investigate the association between natural-cause mortality and long-term exposure to several air pollutants. Methods We used data from 22 European cohort studies, which created a total study population of 367 251 participants. All cohorts were general population samples, although some were restricted to one sex only. With a strictly standardised protocol, we assessed residential exposure to air pollutants as annual average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) with diameters of less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), less than 10 μm (PM 10), and between 10 μm and 2.5 μm (PMcoarse), PM2.5 absorbance, and annual average concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx) with land use regression models. We also investigated two traffic intensity variables-traffic intensity on the nearest road (vehicles per day) and total traffic load on all major roads within a 100 m buffer. We did cohort-specific statistical analyses using confounder models with increasing adjustment for confounder variables, and Cox proportional hazards models with a common protocol. We obtained pooled effect estimates through a random-effects metaanalysis. Findings The total study population consisted of 367 251 participants who contributed 5 118 039 person-years at risk (average follow-up 13.9 years), of whom 29 076 died from a natural cause during follow-up. A significantly increased hazard ratio (HR) for PM2.5 of 1.07 (95% CI 1.02-1.13) per 5 μg/m3 was recorded. No heterogeneity was noted between individual cohort effect estimates (I2 p value=0.95). HRs for PM2.5 remained significantly raised even when we included only participants exposed to pollutant concentrations lower than the European annual mean limit value of 25 μg/m3 (HR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12) or below 20 μg/m3 (1.07, 1.01-1.13). Interpretation Long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution was associated with natural-cause mortality, even within concentration ranges well below the present European annual mean limit value.
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9.
  • Dik, Vincent K., et al. (författare)
  • Coffee and tea consumption, genotype- based CYP1A2 and NAT2 activity and colorectal cancer risk- Results from the EPIC cohort study
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 135:2, s. 401-412
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Coffee and tea contain numerous antimutagenic and antioxidant components and high levels of caffeine that may protect against colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated the association between coffee and tea consumption and CRC risk and studied potential effect modification by CYP1A2 and NAT2 genotypes, enzymes involved in the metabolization of caffeine. Data from 477,071 participants (70.2% female) of the European Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort study were analyzed. At baseline (1992-2000) habitual (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) coffee and tea consumption was assessed with dietary questionnaires. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratio's (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Potential effect modification by genotype-based CYP1A2 and NAT2 activity was studied in a nested case-control set of 1,252 cases and 2,175 controls. After a median follow-up of 11.6 years, 4,234 participants developed CRC (mean age 64.78.3 years). Total coffee consumption (high vs. non/low) was not associated with CRC risk (HR 1.06, 95% CI 0.95-1.18) or subsite cancers, and no significant associations were found for caffeinated (HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.97-1.26) and decaffeinated coffee (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.84-1.11) and tea (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.86-1.09). High coffee and tea consuming subjects with slow CYP1A2 or NAT2 activity had a similar CRC risk compared to non/low coffee and tea consuming subjects with a fast CYP1A2 or NAT2 activity, which suggests that caffeine metabolism does not affect the link between coffee and tea consumption and CRC risk. This study shows that coffee and tea consumption is not likely to be associated with overall CRC. What's new? Coffee and tea contain numerous compounds that may protect against colorectal cancer (CRC). In this study of more than 475,000 participants over more than a decade, the authors investigated whether coffee or tea consumption is associated with an altered risk of developing CRC. They also asked whether genetic variations in two enzymes involved in caffeine metabolism (CYP1A2 and NAT2) might affect this risk. They conclude that neither consumption patterns, nor genetic differences in caffeine metabolism, appear to have a significant impact on CRC risk.
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10.
  • Zhou, Bin, et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015 a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19.1 million participants
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 389:10064, s. 37-55
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • <p>Background Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19.1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127.0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125.7-128.3) in men and 122.3 mm Hg (121.0-123.6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78.7 mm Hg (77.9-79.5) for men and 76.7 mm Hg (75.9-77.6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24.1% (21.4-27.1) in men and 20.1% (17.8-22.5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1.13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. Funding Wellcome Trust.</p>
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