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  • NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD RisC), et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in body-mass index, underweight, overweight, and obesity from 1975 to 2016: a pooled analysis of 2416 population-based measurement studies in 128·9 million children, adolescents, and adults
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 390:10113, s. 2627-2642
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Underweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults. Methods We pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity). Findings Regional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys worldwide were moderately or severely underweight. In the same year, 50 (24–89) million girls and 74 (39–125) million boys worldwide were obese. Interpretation The rising trends in children's and adolescents' BMI have plateaued in many high-income countries, albeit at high levels, but have accelerated in parts of Asia, with trends no longer correlated with those of adults. Funding Wellcome Trust, AstraZeneca Young Health Programme.
  • Bentham, James, et al. (författare)
  • A century of trends in adult human height
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: eLife. - 2050-084X. ; 5
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Being taller is associated with enhanced longevity, and higher education and earnings. We reanalysed 1472 population-based studies, with measurement of height on more than 18.6 million participants to estimate mean height for people born between 1896 and 1996 in 200 countries. The largest gain in adult height over the past century has occurred in South Korean women and Iranian men, who became 20.2 cm (95% credible interval 17.5-22.7) and 16.5 cm (13.3- 19.7) taller, respectively. In contrast, there was little change in adult height in some sub-Saharan African countries and in South Asia over the century of analysis. The tallest people over these 100 years are men born in the Netherlands in the last quarter of 20th century, whose average heights surpassed 182.5 cm, and the shortest were women born in Guatemala in 1896 (140.3 cm; 135.8- 144.8). The height differential between the tallest and shortest populations was 19-20 cm a century ago, and has remained the same for women and increased for men a century later despite substantial changes in the ranking of countries.
  • Di Cesare, M., et al. (författare)
  • Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 387:10026, s. 1377-1396
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18.5 kg/m 2 [underweight], 18.5 kg/m 2 to <20 kg/m 2 , 20 kg/m 2 to <25 kg/m 2 , 25 kg/m 2 to <30 kg/m 2 , 30 kg/m 2 to <35 kg/m 2 , 35 kg/m 2 to <40 kg/m 2 , ≥40 kg/m 2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19.2 million adult participants (9.9 million men and 9.3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21.7 kg/m 2 (95% credible interval 21.3-22.1) in 1975 to 24.2 kg/m 2 (24.0-24.4) in 2014 in men, and from 22.1 kg/m 2 (21.7-22.5) in 1975 to 24.4 kg/m 2 (24.2-24.6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21.4 kg/m 2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29.2 kg/m 2 (28.6-29.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21.8 kg/m 2 (21.4-22.3) in south Asia to 32.2 kg/m 2 (31.5-32.8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13.8% (10.5-17.4) to 8.8% (7.4-10.3) in men and from 14.6% (11.6-17.9) to 9.7% (8.3-11.1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23.4% (17.8-29.2) in men and 24.0% (18.9-29.3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3.2% (2.4-4.1) in 1975 to 10.8% (9.7-12.0) in 2014 in men, and from 6.4% (5.1-7.8) to 14.9% (13.6-16.1) in women. 2.3% (2.0-2.7) of the world's men and 5.0% (4.4-5.6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m 2 ). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0.64% (0.46-0.86) in men and 1.6% (1.3-1.9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.
  • Rohrmann, Sabine, et al. (författare)
  • Meat and fish consumption and the risk of renal cell carcinoma in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 136:5, s. 423-431
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Renal cell cancer (RCC) incidence varies worldwide with a higher incidence in developed countries and lifestyle is likely to contribute to the development of this disease. We examined whether meat and fish consumption were related to the risk of RCC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The analysis included 493,179 EPIC participants, recruited between 1992 and 2000. Until December 2008, 691 RCC cases have been identified. Meat and fish consumption was assessed at baseline using country-specific dietary assessment instruments; 24-hour recalls were applied in an 8% subsample for calibration purposes. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to calculate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Women with a high consumption of red meat (HR=1.36, 95% CI 1.14-1.62; calibrated, per 50 g/day) and processed meat (HR=1.78, 95% CI 1.05-3.03; calibrated, per 50 g/day) had a higher risk of RCC, while no association existed in men. For processed meat, the association with RCC incidence was prominent in premenopausal women and was lacking in postmenopausal women (p interaction=0.02). Neither poultry nor fish consumption were statistically significantly associated with the risk of RCC. The results show a distinct association of red and processed meat consumption with incident RCC in women but not in men. A biological explanation for these findings remains unclear. What's new? Kidney cancer strikes different populations with different frequency, with developed nations seeing more cases. In this paper, the authors investigate whether certain elements of diet might correlate with increased incidence of renal cell carcinoma. Using data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), they assessed the amount of meat and fish consumed in populations representing a wide range of dietary habits. They then correlated this data with renal cell carcinoma incidence. They found no effect from eating fish; consuming red and processed meats did increase risk in women, but not in men.
  • Wormser, David, et al. (författare)
  • Adult height and the risk of cause-specific death and vascular morbidity in 1 million people: individual participant meta-analysis
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - Oxford University Press. - 1464-3685. ; 41:5, s. 1419-1433
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background The extent to which adult height, a biomarker of the interplay of genetic endowment and early-life experiences, is related to risk of chronic diseases in adulthood is uncertain. Methods We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for height, assessed in increments of 6.5 cm, using individual-participant data on 174 374 deaths or major non-fatal vascular outcomes recorded among 1 085 949 people in 121 prospective studies. Results For people born between 1900 and 1960, mean adult height increased 0.5-1 cm with each successive decade of birth. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking and year of birth, HRs per 6.5 cm greater height were 0.97 (95% confidence interval: 0.96-0.99) for death from any cause, 0.94 (0.93-0.96) for death from vascular causes, 1.04 (1.03-1.06) for death from cancer and 0.92 (0.90-0.94) for death from other causes. Height was negatively associated with death from coronary disease, stroke subtypes, heart failure, stomach and oral cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, mental disorders, liver disease and external causes. In contrast, height was positively associated with death from ruptured aortic aneurysm, pulmonary embolism, melanoma and cancers of the pancreas, endocrine and nervous systems, ovary, breast, prostate, colorectum, blood and lung. HRs per 6.5 cm greater height ranged from 1.26 (1.12-1.42) for risk of melanoma death to 0.84 (0.80-0.89) for risk of death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. HRs were not appreciably altered after further adjustment for adiposity, blood pressure, lipids, inflammation biomarkers, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption or socio-economic indicators. Conclusion Adult height has directionally opposing relationships with risk of death from several different major causes of chronic diseases.
  • Freisling, Heinz, et al. (författare)
  • Nut intake and 5-year changes in body weight and obesity risk in adults : results from the EPIC-PANACEA study
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: European Journal of Nutrition. - Springer. - 1436-6207. ; s. 1-10
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Purpose: There is inconsistent evidence regarding the relationship between higher intake of nuts, being an energy-dense food, and weight gain. We investigated the relationship between nut intake and changes in weight over 5 years. Methods: This study includes 373,293 men and women, 25–70 years old, recruited between 1992 and 2000 from 10 European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Habitual intake of nuts including peanuts, together defined as nut intake, was estimated from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires. Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported 5 years later. The association between nut intake and body weight change was estimated using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center/country as random effect and nut intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects. The relative risk (RR) of becoming overweight or obese after 5 years was investigated using multivariate Poisson regressions stratified according to baseline body mass index (BMI). Results: On average, study participants gained 2.1 kg (SD 5.0 kg) over 5 years. Compared to non-consumers, subjects in the highest quartile of nut intake had less weight gain over 5 years (−0.07 kg; 95% CI −0.12 to −0.02) (P trend = 0.025) and had 5% lower risk of becoming overweight (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.92–0.98) or obese (RR 0.95; 95% CI 0.90–0.99) (both P trend <0.008). Conclusions: Higher intake of nuts is associated with reduced weight gain and a lower risk of becoming overweight or obese.
  • Grote, Verena A., et al. (författare)
  • The association of circulating adiponectin levels with pancreatic cancer risk: A study within the prospective EPIC cohort
  • 2012
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 130:10, s. 2428-2437
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Excess body weight and type 2 diabetes mellitus, risk factors of pancreatic cancer, are characterized by decreased levels of adiponectin. In addition to anti-inflammatory and anti-proliferative actions, adiponectin has an important role in regulating glucose metabolism, i.e., decreasing circulating blood glucose levels. Prospectively, hyperglycemia has been associated with risk of pancreatic cancer. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of pre-diagnostic adiponectin levels with pancreatic cancer risk. We conducted a casecontrol study nested within European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Blood samples of 452 pancreatic cancer cases and 452 individually matched controls were analyzed by immunoassays. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Overall, adiponectin showed no association with pancreas cancer risk; however, among never smokers, higher circulating levels of adiponectin were associated with a reduction in pancreatic cancer risk (OR = 0.44 [95% CI 0.230.82] for highest vs. lowest quartile), whereas among current smokers there was no significant association (OR = 1.59 [95% CI 0.673.76] for highest vs. lowest quartile; p-trend = 0.530; p-interaction = 0.309). In our study, lower adiponectin concentrations may be associated with the development of pancreatic cancer among never smokers, whereas the only other prospective study being conducted so far showed a decrease in risk among male smokers. Therefore, further studies are needed to clarify the role of adiponectin in pancreatic cancer development.
  • Zhou, Bin, et al. (författare)
  • Worldwide trends in blood pressure from 1975 to 2015: a pooled analysis of 1479 population-based measurement studies with 19·1 million participants
  • 2017
  • Ingår i: Lancet (London, England). - 1474-547X. ; 389:10064, s. 37-55
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Raised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher. Methods For this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure. Findings We pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence. Interpretation During the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe. Funding Wellcome Trust.
  • Castellsague, Xavier, et al. (författare)
  • Prospective seroepidemiologic study on the role of Human Papillomavirus and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis: Evidence from the EPIC cohort
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Cancer. - John Wiley and Sons Inc.. - 0020-7136. ; 135:2, s. 440-452
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • To evaluate prospectively the association between serological markers of selected infections, including HPV, and risk of developing cervical cancer (CC) and precancer, we performed a nested case-control study within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study that included 184 cases of invasive CC (ICC), 425 cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3 or carcinoma in situ (CIS), and 1,218 matched control women. At enrollment participants completed lifestyle questionnaires and provided sera. Subjects were followed-up for a median of 9 years. Immunoassays were used to detect serum antibodies to Human Herpes Virus 2 (HHV-2), Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumoniae, L1 proteins of mucosal and cutaneous HPV types, E6/E7 proteins of HPV16/18, as well as to four polyomaviruses. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) [and 95% confidence intervals (CI)] for CIN3/CIS and ICC risk were respectively: 1.6 (1.2-2.0) and 1.8 (1.1-2.7) for L1 seropositivity to any mucosal HPV type, 1.0 (0.4-2.4) and 7.4 (2.8-19.7) for E6 seropositivity to HPV16/18, 1.3 (0.9-1.9) and 2.3 (1.3-4.1) for CT seropositivity, and 1.4 (1.0-2.0) and 1.5 (0.9-2.6) for HHV-2 seropositivity. The highest OR for ICC was observed for HPV16 E6 seropositivity [OR=10.2 (3.3-31.1)]. Increasing number of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) was associated with increasing risk. Non-STIs were not associated with CC risk. In conclusion, this large prospective study confirms the important role of HPV and a possible contribution of CT and HHV-2 in cervical carcinogenesis. It further identifies HPV16 E6 seropositivity as the strongest marker to predict ICC well before disease development. What's New? Limited data are available from prospective studies concerning the role of past exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV) and other infections in cervical carcinogenesis. This study assessed associations between cervical cancer and pre-cancer and serological markers of exposure to mucosal and cutaneous HPVs, Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Chlamydia pneumonia, human herpes virus-2 (HHV-2), and polyomaviruses using a nested case-control design within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Associations were found for mucosal HPVs, CT, and HHV-2. A greater number of sexually transmitted diseases further raised the risk of cervical cancer.
  • Kaaks, Rudolf, et al. (författare)
  • Lag-times between lympho-proliferative disorder and clinical diagnosis of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL): a prospective analysis using plasma soluble CD23.
  • 2015
  • Ingår i: Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention. - American Association for Cancer Research. - 1538-7755. ; 24:3, s. 538-545
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background:CLL is a chronic disease that often progresses slowly from a precursor stage, monoclonal B-cell lymphocytosis (MBL), and that can remain undiagnosed for a long time. Methods:Within the European EPIC cohort, we measured pre-diagnostic plasma sCD23 for 179 individuals who eventually were diagnosed with CLL and an equal number of matched control subjects who remained free of cancer. Results: In a very large proportion of CLL patients plasma sCD23 was clearly elevated 7 or more years before diagnosis. Considering sCD23 as a disease predictor, the area under the ROC curve (AUROC) was 0.95 [95% CI (0.90, 1.00)] for CLL diagnosed within 0.1-2.7 years after blood measurement, 0.90 [0.86-0.95] for diagnosis within 2.8-7.3 years, and 0.76 [0.65-0.86] for CLL diagnosed between 7.4 and 12.5 years. Even at a 7.4-year and longer time interval, elevated plasma sCD23 could predict a later clinical diagnosis of CLL with 100% specificity at >45% sensitivity. Conclusions:Our findings provide unique documentation for the very long latency times during which measurable B-cell lympho-proliferative disorder exists prior to the clinical manifestation of CLL. Impact:Our findings have relevance for the interpretation of prospective epidemiologic studies on the causes of CLL in terms of reverse causation bias. The lag-times indicate a time frame within which an early detection of CLL would be theoretically possible.
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