| 1. |
- Byass, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Lessons from History for Designing and Validating Epidemiological Surveillance in Uncounted Populations
- 2011
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Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:8, s. e22897-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Due to scanty individual health data in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), health planners often use imperfect data sources. Frequent national-level data are considered essential, even if their depth and quality are questionable. However, quality in-depth data from local sentinel populations may be better than scanty national data, if such local data can be considered as nationally representative. The difficulty is the lack of any theoretical or empirical basis for demonstrating that local data are representative where data on the wider population are unavailable. Thus these issues can only be explored empirically in a complete individual dataset at national and local levels, relating to a LMIC population profile. Methods and Findings: Swedish national data for 1925 were used, characterised by relatively high mortality, a low proportion of older people and substantial mortality due to infectious causes. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of Sweden then and LMICs now are very similar. Rates of livebirths, stillbirths, infant and cause-specific mortality were calculated at national and county levels. Results for six million people in 24 counties showed that most counties had overall mortality rates within 10% of the national level. Other rates by county were mostly within 20% of national levels. Maternal mortality represented too rare an event to give stable results at the county level. Conclusions: After excluding obviously outlying counties (capital city, island, remote areas), any one of the remaining 80% closely reflected the national situation in terms of key demographic and mortality parameters, each county representing approximately 5% of the national population. We conclude that this scenario would probably translate directly to about 40 LMICs with populations under 10 million, and to individual states or provinces within about 40 larger LMICs. Unsubstantiated claims that local sub-national population data are "unrepresentative" or "only local" should not therefore predominate over likely representativity.
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| 2. |
- Fantahun, Mesganaw, et al.
(författare)
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Ageing of a rural Ethiopian population : who are the survivors?
- 2009
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Ingår i: Public health. - : Elsevier. - 1476-5616 .- 0033-3506.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: This study assessed trends in survival to old age and identified the factors associated with longevity among the elderly (age >/=65 years). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort analysis of demographic surveillance data. METHODS: The study was conducted in the Butajira Rural Health Programme Demographic Surveillance Site in Ethiopia. Using data collected between 1987 and 2004, the probability of survival to 65 years and remaining life expectancy for women and men aged 65 years were computed. Cox regression analysis was used to assess survival by different factors. RESULTS: Although the elderly represented 3% of the population, their person-time contribution increased by 48% over the 18-year period. Less than half reached 65 years of age, with remaining life expectancy at 65 years ranging from 15 years in rural men to 19 years in urban women. Rural residence, illiteracy and widowhood were associated with lower survival adjusted for other factors, whereas gender did not show a significant difference. However, the effect of these factors differed between men and women, as demonstrated by survival curves and Cox regression. Widowhood [hazard ratio (HR) 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.57] and illiteracy (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.86-2.73) affected males to a greater extent than females, and rural residence was associated with poorer female survival (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.55-1.83). CONCLUSIONS: The number of elderly people is increasing in Ethiopia, with the chance of survival into older age being similar between men and women and approaching that in developed countries. However, rural women and illiterate women and men, particularly widowers, are disadvantaged in terms of survival.
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| 3. |
- Fottrell, Edward, et al.
(författare)
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A probabilistic method to estimate the burden of maternal morbidity in resource-poor settings : preliminary development and evaluation
- 2014
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Ingår i: Emerging Themes in Epidemiology. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1742-7622. ; 11:1, s. 3-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Maternal morbidity is more common than maternal death, and population-based estimates of the burden of maternal morbidity could provide important indicators for monitoring trends, priority setting and evaluating the health impact of interventions. Methods based on lay reporting of obstetric events have been shown to lack specificity and there is a need for new approaches to measure the population burden of maternal morbidity. A computer-based probabilistic tool was developed to estimate the likelihood of maternal morbidity and its causes based on self-reported symptoms and pregnancy/delivery experiences. Development involved the use of training datasets of signs, symptoms and causes of morbidity from 1734 facility-based deliveries in Benin and Burkina Faso, as well as expert review. Preliminary evaluation of the method compared the burden of maternal morbidity and specific causes from the probabilistic tool with clinical classifications of 489 recently-delivered women from Benin, Bangladesh and India.RESULTS: Using training datasets, it was possible to create a probabilistic tool that handled uncertainty of women's self reports of pregnancy and delivery experiences in a unique way to estimate population-level burdens of maternal morbidity and specific causes that compared well with clinical classifications of the same data. When applied to test datasets, the method overestimated the burden of morbidity compared with clinical review, although possible conceptual and methodological reasons for this were identified.CONCLUSION: The probabilistic method shows promise and may offer opportunities for standardised measurement of maternal morbidity that allows for the uncertainty of women's self-reported symptoms in retrospective interviews. However, important discrepancies with clinical classifications were observed and the method requires further development, refinement and evaluation in a range of settings.
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| 4. |
- Santosa, Ailiana, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Achieving a 25% reduction in premature non-communicable disease mortality : the Swedish population as a cohort study
- 2015
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Ingår i: BMC Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1741-7015. ; 13:65
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The 2012 World Health Assembly set a target for Member States to reduce premature non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality by 25% over the period 2010 to 2025. This reflected concerns about increasing NCD mortality burdens among productive adults globally.OBJECTIVES: We firstly considered whether the WHO target of a 25% reduction in the unconditional probability of dying between ages of 30 and 70 from NCDs (cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes or chronic respiratory diseases) had already taken place in Sweden during an equivalent 15-year period. Secondly, we assessed which population sub-groups had been more or less successful in contributing to overall changes in premature NCD mortality in Sweden.METHODS: A retrospective dynamic cohort database was constructed from Swedish population registers in the Linnaeus database, covering the entire population in the age range 30-69 years for the period 1991 to 2006, which was used directly to measure reductions in premature NCD mortality. Multivariate Poisson regression models were used to assess the contributions of individual background factors to decreases in premature NCD mortality.RESULTS: A total of 292,320 deaths occurred in the 30-69 year age group during the period 1991 to 2006, against 70,768,848 person-years registered. The crude all-cause mortality rate declined from 5.03 to 3.72 per 1,000 person-years, a 26% reduction. Within this, the unconditional probability of dying between the ages of 30 and 70 from NCD causes as defined by WHO fell by 30.0%. Age was consistently the strongest determinant of NCD mortality. Background determinants of NCD mortality changed significantly over the four time periods 1991-1994, 1995-1998, 1999-2002 and 2003-2006.CONCLUSIONS: Sweden, now at a late stage of epidemiological transition, has already exceeded the 25% premature NCD mortality reduction target during an earlier 15-year period. This should be encouraging news for countries currently implementing premature NCD mortality reduction programmes. Our findings suggest, however, that it may be difficult for Sweden and other late-transition countries to reach the current 25x25 target, particularly where substantial premature mortality reductions have already been achieved.
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| 5. |
- Santosa, Ailiana, 1976-, et al.
(författare)
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Socio-demographic predictors of mortality inequality among Swedish men and women : a longitudinal study
- 2014
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Ingår i: European Journal of Public Health. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1101-1262 .- 1464-360X. ; 24, s. 188-189, s. 188-189
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BackgroundDespite increasing life expectancy in many countries, health and mortality inequality exist. This study aimed to assess overall and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality trends among Swedish men and women during 1992-2006, and their association with individual level socio-demographic determinants of mortality inequality.MethodsData were extracted from the Linnaeus Database which consists of register and survey data. A multilevel Poisson regression analysis was used to assess the number and mortality rate, as well as individual level determinants (fixed effects) of overall and CVD deaths for men and women at county level (n = 24) in each 5-year period during 1992-2006. We also assessed the random effect at county level.ResultsA total of 9,098,090 individuals accumulating 115,361,104 person years was included in this study. A significant reduction in overall and CVD mortality rates occurred among Swedish men and women during the study period 1992-2006, with persisting excess male: female mortality. Older age and pensioner, unmarried or widowed individuals, low and middle education levels and employed individuals with low income (the lowest income tertile) were consistently associated with higher mortality rates of overall and CVD mortality in men and women. Individuals with tertiary education level and being immigrant was protective factors for overall mortality, but less so for CVD mortality. The multilevel analysis revealed that about 85% and 80% of the variation of overall and CVD mortality at county level, respectively, could be explained by the individual socio-demographic variables.ConclusionsInequality in overall and CVD mortality still exists among Swedish men and women, and to some extend are influenced by county level determinants. Contextual epidemiology must therefore play a decisive role in understanding social disparities in overall and CVD mortality in Sweden.Key messagesOverall, individual factors played a more important part in understanding the differences of overall and CVD mortality than contextual factors within the same area in men and women in Swedish context.Health policy actions aiming to reduce health inequality should be addressed not only focusing on individual characteristics but also on geographical factors.
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| 6. |
- Santosa, Ailiana, et al.
(författare)
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The development and experience of epidemiological transition theory over four decades : a systematic review
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Epidemiological transition (ET) theory, first postulated in 1971, has developed alongside changes in population structures over time. However, understandings of mortality transitions and associated epidemiological changes remain poorly defined for public health practitioners. Here, we review the concept and development of ET theory, contextualising this in empirical evidence, which variously supports and contradicts the original theoretical propositions.DESIGN: A Medline literature search covering publications over four decades, from 1971 to 2013, was conducted. Studies were included if they assessed human populations, were original articles, focused on mortality and health or demographic or ET and were in English. The reference lists of the selected articles were checked for additional sources.RESULTS: We found that there were changes in emphasis in the research field over the four decades. There was an increasing tendency to study wide-ranging aspects of the determinants of mortality, including risk factors, lifestyle changes, socio-economics, and macro factors such as climate change. Research on ET has focused increasingly on low- and middle-income countries rather than industrialised countries, despite its origins in industrialised countries. Countries have experienced different levels of progress in ET in terms of time, pace, and underlying mechanisms. Elements of ET are described for many countries, but observed transitions have not always followed pathways described in the original theory.CONCLUSIONS: The classic ET theory largely neglected the critical role of social determinants, being largely a theoretical generalisation of mortality experience in some countries. This review shows increasing interest in ET all over the world but only partial concordance between established theory and empirical evidence. Empirical evidence suggests that some unconsidered aspects of social determinants contributed to deviations from classic theoretical pathways. A better-constructed, revised ET theory, with a stronger basis in evidence, is needed.
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| 7. |
- Thomsen, Sarah, et al.
(författare)
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Promoting equity to achieve maternal and child health
- 2011
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Ingår i: Reproductive health matters. - 0968-8080 .- 1460-9576. ; 19:38, s. 176-182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Maternal and child mortality rates, the targets for two of the eight Millennium Development Goals, remain unacceptably high in many countries. Some countries have made significant advances in reducing deaths in pregnancy, childbirth, and childhood at the national level. However, on a sub-national basis most countries show wide disparities in health indices which are not necessarily reflected in national figures. This is a sign of inequitable access to and provision of health services. Yet there has been little attention to health equity in relation to the Millennium Development Goals. Instead, countries have focused on achieving national targets. This has led to an emphasis on utilitarian, as opposed to universalist, approaches to public health, which we discuss here. We recommend a policy of "proportionate universalism". In this approach, universal health care and a universal social policy are the ultimate goal, but in the interim actions are carried out with intensities proportionate to disadvantage. We also briefly describe an initiative that aims to promote evidence-based policy and interventions that will reduce inequity in access to maternal and child health care in China, India, Indonesia and Viet Nam.
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