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- Streatfield, P Kim, et al.
(författare)
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Mortality from external causes in Africa and Asia : evidence from INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance System Sites
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : CoAction Publishing. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Mortality from external causes, of all kinds, is an important component of overall mortality on a global basis. However, these deaths, like others in Africa and Asia, are often not counted or documented on an individual basis. Overviews of the state of external cause mortality in Africa and Asia are therefore based on uncertain information. The INDEPTH Network maintains longitudinal surveillance, including cause of death, at population sites across Africa and Asia, which offers important opportunities to document external cause mortality at the population level across a range of settings.OBJECTIVE: To describe patterns of mortality from external causes at INDEPTH Network sites across Africa and Asia, according to the WHO 2012 verbal autopsy (VA) cause categories.DESIGN: All deaths at INDEPTH sites are routinely registered and followed up with VA interviews. For this study, VA archives were transformed into the WHO 2012 VA standard format and processed using the InterVA-4 model to assign cause of death. Routine surveillance data also provide person-time denominators for mortality rates.RESULTS: A total of 5,884 deaths due to external causes were documented over 11,828,253 person-years. Approximately one-quarter of those deaths were to children younger than 15 years. Causes of death were dominated by childhood drowning in Bangladesh, and by transport-related deaths and intentional injuries elsewhere. Detailed mortality rates are presented by cause of death, age group, and sex.CONCLUSIONS: The patterns of external cause mortality found here generally corresponded with expectations and other sources of information, but they fill some important gaps in population-based mortality data. They provide an important source of information to inform potentially preventive intervention designs.
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| 3. |
- Byass, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Moving from data on deaths to public health policy in Agincourt, South Africa : approaches to analysing and understanding verbal autopsy findings
- 2010
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Ingår i: PLoS Medicine. - : Public Library of Science. - 1549-1277 .- 1549-1676. ; 7:8, s. e1000325-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- There were no differences between physician interpretation and probabilistic modelling that might have led to substantially different public health policy conclusions at the population level. Physician interpretation was more nuanced than the model, for example in identifying cancers at particular sites, but did not capture the uncertainty associated with individual cases. Probabilistic modelling was substantially cheaper and faster, and completely internally consistent. Both approaches characterised the rise of HIV-related mortality in this population during the period observed, and reached similar findings on other major causes of mortality. For many purposes probabilistic modelling appears to be the best available means of moving from data on deaths to public health actions. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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| 4. |
- Byass, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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The long road to elimination : malaria mortality in a South African population cohort over 21 years
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Health, Epidemiology and Genomics. - : Cambridge University Press. - 2054-4200. ; 2
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Malaria elimination is on global agendas following successful transmission reductions. Nevertheless moving from low to zero transmission is challenging. South Africa has an elimination target of 2018, which may or may not be realised in its hypoendemic areas.Methods: The Agincourt Health and Demographic Surveillance System has monitored population health in north-eastern South Africa since 1992. Malaria deaths were analysed against individual factors, socioeconomic status, labour migration and weather over a 21-year period, eliciting trends over time and associations with covariates.Results: Of 13 251 registered deaths over 1.58 million person-years, 1.2% were attributed to malaria. Malaria mortality rates increased from 1992 to 2013, while mean daily maximum temperature rose by 1.5 °C. Travel to endemic Mozambique became easier, and malaria mortality increased in higher socioeconomic groups. Overall, malaria mortality was significantly associated with age, socioeconomic status, labour migration and employment, yearly rainfall and higher rainfall/temperature shortly before death.Conclusions: Malaria persists as a small but important cause of death in this semi-rural South African population. Detailed longitudinal population data were crucial for these analyses. The findings highlight practical political, socioeconomic and environmental difficulties that may also be encountered elsewhere in moving from low-transmission scenarios to malaria elimination.
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| 5. |
- Byass, Peter, et al.
(författare)
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Using verbal autopsy to track epidemic dynamics : the case of HIV-related mortality in South Africa.
- 2011
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Ingår i: Population Health Metrics. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1478-7954. ; 9, s. 46-
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background Verbal autopsy (VA) has often been used for point estimates of cause-specific mortality, but seldom to characterize long-term changes in epidemic patterns. Monitoring emerging causes of death involves practitioners' developing perceptions of diseases and demands consistent methods and practices. Here we retrospectively analyze HIV-related mortality in South Africa, using physician and modeled interpretation.Methods Between 1992 and 2005, 94% of 6,153 deaths which occurred in the Agincourt subdistrict had VAs completed, and coded by two physicians and the InterVA model. The physician causes of death were consolidated into a single consensus underlying cause per case, with an additional physician arbitrating where different diagnoses persisted. HIV-related mortality rates and proportions of deaths coded as HIV-related by individual physicians, physician consensus, and the InterVA model were compared over time.Results Approximately 20% of deaths were HIV-related, ranging from early low levels to tenfold-higher later population rates (2.5 per 1,000 person-years). Rates were higher among children under 5 years and adults 20 to 64 years. Adult mortality shifted to older ages as the epidemic progressed, with a noticeable number of HIV-related deaths in the over-65 year age group latterly. Early InterVA results suggested slightly higher initial HIV-related mortality than physician consensus found. Overall, physician consensus and InterVA results characterized the epidemic very similarly. Individual physicians showed marked interobserver variation, with consensus findings generally reflecting slightly lower proportions of HIV-related deaths. Aggregated findings for first versus second physician did not differ appreciably.Conclusions VA effectively detected a very significant epidemic of HIV-related mortality. Using either physicians or InterVA gave closely comparable findings regarding the epidemic. The consistency between two physician coders per case (from a pool of 14) suggests that double coding may be unnecessary, although the consensus rate of HIV-related mortality was approximately 8% lower than by individual physicians. Consistency within and between individual physicians, individual perceptions of epidemic dynamics, and the inherent consistency of models are important considerations here. The ability of the InterVA model to track a more than tenfold increase in HIV-related mortality over time suggests that finely tuned "local" versions of models for VA interpretation are not necessary.
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| 7. |
- Collinson, Mark A, 1964-
(författare)
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Striving against adversity. : the dynamics of migration, health and poverty in rural South Africa
- 2009
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Background: The study is based in post-apartheid South Africa and looks at the health and well being of households in the rural northeast. Temporary migration remains important in South Africa because it functions as a mainstay for income and even survival of rural communities. The economic base of rural South Africans is surprisingly low because there is high inequity at a national level, within and between racial groups. There has now been a democratic system in place for 15 years and there is no longer restriction of mobility, but there remain high levels of poverty in rural areas and rising mortality rates. Migration patterns did not change after apartheid in the manner expected. We need to examine consequences of migration and learn how to offset negative impacts with targeted policies. Aims: To determine a relevant typology of migration in a typical rural sending community, namely the Agincourt sub-district of Mpumalanga, South Africa, and relate it to the urban transition at a national level – Paper (I) . To evaluate the dynamics of socio-economic status in this rural community and examine the relationship with migration – Paper (II). To explore, using longitudinal methods, the impact of migration on key dimensions of health, including adult and child mortality, and sexual partnerships, over a period of an emerging HIV/AIDS epidemic – Papers (III), (IV) and (V). Methods: The health and socio-demographic surveillance system (HDSS) is a large open cohort where the migration dynamics are monitored as they unfold. They are recorded as temporary or permanent migration. Settled refugees are captured using nationality on entry into the HDSS. Longitudinal methods, namely a household panel and two discrete time event history analyses, are used to examine consequences of migration. Results: Migration features prominently and different types have different age and sex profiles. Temporary migration impacts the most on socio-economic status (SES) and health, but permanent migration and the settlement of former refugees are also important. Remittances from migrants make a significant difference to SES. For the poorest households the key factors improving SES are government grants and female temporary migration, while for less poor it is male temporary migration and local employment. Migration has been associated with HIV. Migrants that return more frequently may be less exposed to outside partners and therefore less implicated in the HIV epidemic. There are links between migration and mortality including a higher risk of dying for returnee migrants compared to permanent residents. A mother’s migration can impact on child survival after accounting for other factors. There remains a higher mortality risk for children of Mozambican former refugee parents. Interpretation: Migration changes the risks and resources for health with positive and negative implications. Measures such as improved transportation and roads should be seen as a positive, not a negative intervention, even though it will create more migration. Health services need to adapt to a reality of high levels of circular migration ranging from budget allocation to referral systems. Data should be enhanced at a national level by accounting for temporary migration in national censuses and surveys. At individual level we can offset negative consequences by treating migrants as persons striving against adversity, instead of unwelcome visitors in our better-off communities.
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| 9. |
- Mee, Paul, et al.
(författare)
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Determinants of the risk of dying of HIV/AIDS in a rural South African community over the period of the decentralised roll-out of antiretroviral therapy : a longitudinal study
- 2014
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Ingår i: Global Health Action. - : Taylor & Francis. - 1654-9716 .- 1654-9880. ; 7
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral treatment (ART) has significantly reduced HIV mortality in South Africa. The benefits have not been experienced by all groups. Here we investigate the factors associated with these inequities.DESIGN: This study was located in a rural South African setting and used data collected from 2007 to 2010, the period when decentralised ART became available. Approximately one-third of the population were of Mozambican origin. There was a pattern of repeated circular migration between urban areas and this community. Survival analysis models were developed to identify demographic, socioeconomic, and spatial risk factors for HIV mortality.RESULTS: Among the study population of 105,149 individuals, there were 2,890 deaths. The HIV/TB mortality rate decreased by 27% between 2007-2008 and 2009-2010. For other causes of death, the reduction was 10%. Bivariate analysis found that the HIV/TB mortality risk was lower for: those living within 5 km of the Bhubezi Community Health Centre; women; young adults; in-migrants with a longer period of residence; permanent residents; and members of households owning motorised transport, holding higher socioeconomic positions, and with higher levels of education. Multivariate modelling showed, in addition, that those with South Africa as their country of origin had an increased risk of HIV/TB mortality compared to those with Mozambican origins. For males, those of South African origin, and recent in-migrants, the risk of death associated with HIV/TB was significantly greater than that due to other causes.CONCLUSIONS: In this community, a combination of factors was associated with an increased risk of dying of HIV/TB over the period of the roll-out of ART. There is evidence for the presence of barriers to successful treatment for particular sub-groups in the population, which must be addressed if the recent improvements in population-level mortality are to be maintained.
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| 10. |
- Mee, Paul, et al.
(författare)
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Evidence for localised HIV related micro-epidemics associated with the decentralised provision of antiretroviral treatment in rural South Africa : a spatio-temporal analysis of changing mortality patterns (2007-2010)
- 2014
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Ingår i: Journal of Global Health. - : Edinburgh University Global Health Society. - 2047-2978 .- 2047-2986. ; 4:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: In this study we analysed the spatial and temporal changes in patterns of mortality over a period when antiretroviral therapy (ART) was rolled out in a rural region of north-eastern South Africa. Previous studies have identified localised concentrated HIV related sub-epidemics and recommended that micro-level analyses be carried out in order to direct focused interventions.METHODS: Data from an ongoing health and socio-demographic surveillance study was used in the analysis. The follow-up was divided into two periods, 2007-2008 and 2009-2010, representing the times immediately before and after the effects on mortality of the decentralised ART provision from a newly established local health centre would be expected to be evident. The study population at the start of the analysis was approximately 73 000 individuals. Data were aggregated by village and also using a 2 × 2 km grid. We identified villages, grid squares and regions in the site where mortality rates within each time period or rate ratios between the periods differed significantly from the overall trends. We used clustering techniques to identify cause-specific mortality hotspots.FINDINGS: Comparing the two periods, there was a 30% decrease in age and gender standardised adult HIV-related and TB (HIV/TB) mortality with no change in mortality due to other causes. There was considerable spatial heterogeneity in the mortality patterns. Areas separated by 2 to 4 km with very different epidemic trajectories were identified. There was evidence that the impact of ART in reducing HIV/TB mortality was greatest in communities with higher mortality rates in the earlier period.CONCLUSIONS: This study shows the value of conducting high resolution spatial analyses in order to understand how local micro-epidemics contribute to changes seen over a wider area. Such analyses can support targeted interventions.
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