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Sökning: WFRF:(Byass Peter) > Högberg Ulf

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1.
  • Berhane, Yemane, et al. (författare)
  • A rural Ethiopian population undergoing epidemiological transition over a generation : Butajira from 1987 to 2004
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. - : SAGE Publications. - 1403-4948 .- 1651-1905. ; 36:4, s. 436-441
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Aims: To describe the epidemiological development of a rural Ethiopian population from 1987 to 2004 in terms of mortality and associated sociodemographic factors. Methods: A rural population comprising 10 communities was defined in 1987 and has since been followed by means of regular household visits. After an initial census, births, deaths and migration events were recorded, together with key background factors, on an open cohort basis. Over 97,000 individuals were observed during a total of over 700,000 person years. Results: The initial population of 28,614 increased by an average of 3.64% annually to 54,426 from 1987 to 2004, and also grew older on average. Birth and mortality rates fell, but were still subject to short-term variation due to external factors. Overall mortality was 13.5 per 1000 person years. Increasing mortality in some adult age groups was consistent with increasing AIDS-related deaths, but a new local hospital in 2002 may have contributed to later falls in overall mortality. Sex, age group, time period, literacy, water source, house ownership and distance to town were all significantly associated with mortality differentials. Conclusions: This population has undergone a complex epidemiological transition during a generation. Detailed long-term surveillance of this kind is essential for describing such processes. Many factors that significantly affect mortality cannot be directly controlled by the health sector and will only improve with general development.
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2.
  • Byass, Peter, et al. (författare)
  • Lessons from History for Designing and Validating Epidemiological Surveillance in Uncounted Populations
  • 2011
  • Ingår i: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:8, s. e22897-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background: Due to scanty individual health data in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), health planners often use imperfect data sources. Frequent national-level data are considered essential, even if their depth and quality are questionable. However, quality in-depth data from local sentinel populations may be better than scanty national data, if such local data can be considered as nationally representative. The difficulty is the lack of any theoretical or empirical basis for demonstrating that local data are representative where data on the wider population are unavailable. Thus these issues can only be explored empirically in a complete individual dataset at national and local levels, relating to a LMIC population profile. Methods and Findings: Swedish national data for 1925 were used, characterised by relatively high mortality, a low proportion of older people and substantial mortality due to infectious causes. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of Sweden then and LMICs now are very similar. Rates of livebirths, stillbirths, infant and cause-specific mortality were calculated at national and county levels. Results for six million people in 24 counties showed that most counties had overall mortality rates within 10% of the national level. Other rates by county were mostly within 20% of national levels. Maternal mortality represented too rare an event to give stable results at the county level. Conclusions: After excluding obviously outlying counties (capital city, island, remote areas), any one of the remaining 80% closely reflected the national situation in terms of key demographic and mortality parameters, each county representing approximately 5% of the national population. We conclude that this scenario would probably translate directly to about 40 LMICs with populations under 10 million, and to individual states or provinces within about 40 larger LMICs. Unsubstantiated claims that local sub-national population data are "unrepresentative" or "only local" should not therefore predominate over likely representativity.
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3.
  • Byass, Peter, et al. (författare)
  • The role of demographic surveillance systems (DSS) in assessing the health of communities : an example from rural Ethiopia
  • 2002
  • Ingår i: Public Health. - : Elsevier BV. - 0033-3506 .- 1476-5616. ; 116:3, s. 145-150
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Longitudinal demographic surveillance systems (DSSs) in selected populations can provide important information in situations where routine health information is incomplete or absent, particularly in developing countries. The Butajira Rural Health Project is one such example, initiated in rural Ethiopia in 1987. DSSs rely on regular community-based surveillance as a means of vital event registration, among a sufficient population base to draw meaningful conclusions about rates and trends in relatively rare events such as maternal death. Enquiries into specific health problems can also then use this framework to quantify particular issues or evaluate interventions. Demographic characteristics and trends for a rural Ethiopian population over a 10-y period are presented as an illustration of the DSS approach, based on 336 000 person-years observed. Overall life expectancy at birth was 50 y. Demographic parameters generally showed modest trends towards improvement over the 10-y period. The DSS approach is useful in characterising populations at the community level over a period of time, providing important information for health planning and intervention. Methodological issues underlying this approach need further exploration and development.
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5.
  • Fantahun, Mesganaw, et al. (författare)
  • Ageing of a rural Ethiopian population : who are the survivors?
  • 2009
  • Ingår i: Public health. - : Elsevier. - 1476-5616 .- 0033-3506.
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • OBJECTIVES: This study assessed trends in survival to old age and identified the factors associated with longevity among the elderly (age >/=65 years). STUDY DESIGN: Cohort analysis of demographic surveillance data. METHODS: The study was conducted in the Butajira Rural Health Programme Demographic Surveillance Site in Ethiopia. Using data collected between 1987 and 2004, the probability of survival to 65 years and remaining life expectancy for women and men aged 65 years were computed. Cox regression analysis was used to assess survival by different factors. RESULTS: Although the elderly represented 3% of the population, their person-time contribution increased by 48% over the 18-year period. Less than half reached 65 years of age, with remaining life expectancy at 65 years ranging from 15 years in rural men to 19 years in urban women. Rural residence, illiteracy and widowhood were associated with lower survival adjusted for other factors, whereas gender did not show a significant difference. However, the effect of these factors differed between men and women, as demonstrated by survival curves and Cox regression. Widowhood [hazard ratio (HR) 2.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.59-2.57] and illiteracy (HR 2.26, 95% CI 1.86-2.73) affected males to a greater extent than females, and rural residence was associated with poorer female survival (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.55-1.83). CONCLUSIONS: The number of elderly people is increasing in Ethiopia, with the chance of survival into older age being similar between men and women and approaching that in developed countries. However, rural women and illiterate women and men, particularly widowers, are disadvantaged in terms of survival.
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7.
  • Fantahun, Mesganaw, 1958- (författare)
  • Mortality and survival from childhood to old age in rural Ethiopia
  • 2008
  • Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
    • This thesis examines ways of establishing cause of death, assessing trends in mortality, and identifying factors that affect mortality and survival among the different population groups in rural and semi-urban Ethiopia. These data are important for health care planning; however, such vital data are unavailable in many developing countries. The study was conducted in Butajira Rural Health Program Demographic Surveillance Site, Ethiopia, where data collection on vital events and related research has been conducted for the last 20 years. This thesis used a cohort and a case referent study preceded by Focus Group Discussion. It also employed a verbal autopsy procedure to identify causes of death. The cohort component used 18 years of surveillance data (1987-2004). The prospective case referent study, carried out in the years 2003-2005, was used to complement the mortality analysis and focused particularly on issues related to household decision making, social capital, and economic status. The main subgroups included were children under-five years old, adults 15-64, and the elderly 65 years and above. Cause of death was ascertained using the Physicians’ Review and InterVA methods. Food shortage and epidemics affected the modest downward trend of mortality. There was a general similarity between the Physicians’ Review and InterVA methods in identifying the major causes of death. About 60% of the deaths were due to pneumonia/sepsis, pulmonary tuberculosis, malaria, and diarrhoea disease/malnutrition. The InterVA method was cheaper and more consistent. Higher rates of HIV/AIDS (11%), tuberculosis (18%), and cardiovascular (9%) mortality were noted in urban areas compared to rural areas. Consistent higher mortality was found in rural areas. Women were disadvantaged by residence and advanced age. Place of residence, illiteracy, widowhood, and not owning a house affected men and women differently, indicating a possible need for gender-specific interventions. Children and women survival is affected by household decision-making; this means efforts to improve women’s involvement in household decision-making (women empowerment) might improve child and women survival in poor settings. Many factors that significantly affect mortality can only be controlled by concerted efforts to improve health and overall development.
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9.
  • Fantahun, Mesganaw, et al. (författare)
  • Young adult and middle age mortality in Butajira demographic surveillance site, Ethiopia : lifestyle, gender and household economy
  • 2008
  • Ingår i: BMC Public Health. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2458. ; 8, s. Article nr 268-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Background Public health research characterising the course of life through the middle age in developing societies is scarce. The aim of this study is to explore patterns of adult (15–64 years) mortality in an Ethiopian population over time, by gender, urban or rural lifestyle, causes of death and in relation to household economic status and decision-making.Methods The study was conducted in Butajira Demographic Surveillance Site (DSS) in south-central Ethiopia among adults 15–64 years old. Cohort analysis of surveillance data was conducted for the years 1987–2004 complemented by a prospective case-referent (case control) study over two years.Rate ratios were computed to assess the relationships between mortality and background variables using a Poisson regression model. In the case-referent component, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) were used to assess the effect of certain risk factors that were not included in the surveillance system.Results A total of 367 940 person years were observed in a period of 18 years, in which 2 860 deaths occurred. One hundred sixty two cases and 486 matched for age, sex and place of residence controls were included in the case referent (case control) study. Only a modest downward trend in adult mortality was seen over the 18 year period. Rural lifestyle carried a significant survival disadvantage [mortality rate ratio 1.62 (95% CI 1.44 to 1.82), adjusted for gender, period and age group], while the overall effects of gender were negligible. Communicable disease mortality was appreciably higher in rural areas [rate ratio 2.05 (95% CI 1.73 to 2.44), adjusted for gender, age group and period]. Higher mortality was associated with a lack of literacy in a household, poor economic status and lack of women's decision making.Conclusion A complex pattern of adult mortality prevails, still influenced by war, famine and communicable diseases. Individual factors such as a lack of education, low economic status and social disadvantage all contribute to increased risks of mortality.
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10.
  • Fottrell, Edward, et al. (författare)
  • A probabilistic method to estimate the burden of maternal morbidity in resource-poor settings : preliminary development and evaluation
  • 2014
  • Ingår i: Emerging Themes in Epidemiology. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1742-7622. ; 11:1, s. 3-
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • BACKGROUND: Maternal morbidity is more common than maternal death, and population-based estimates of the burden of maternal morbidity could provide important indicators for monitoring trends, priority setting and evaluating the health impact of interventions. Methods based on lay reporting of obstetric events have been shown to lack specificity and there is a need for new approaches to measure the population burden of maternal morbidity. A computer-based probabilistic tool was developed to estimate the likelihood of maternal morbidity and its causes based on self-reported symptoms and pregnancy/delivery experiences. Development involved the use of training datasets of signs, symptoms and causes of morbidity from 1734 facility-based deliveries in Benin and Burkina Faso, as well as expert review. Preliminary evaluation of the method compared the burden of maternal morbidity and specific causes from the probabilistic tool with clinical classifications of 489 recently-delivered women from Benin, Bangladesh and India.RESULTS: Using training datasets, it was possible to create a probabilistic tool that handled uncertainty of women's self reports of pregnancy and delivery experiences in a unique way to estimate population-level burdens of maternal morbidity and specific causes that compared well with clinical classifications of the same data. When applied to test datasets, the method overestimated the burden of morbidity compared with clinical review, although possible conceptual and methodological reasons for this were identified.CONCLUSION: The probabilistic method shows promise and may offer opportunities for standardised measurement of maternal morbidity that allows for the uncertainty of women's self-reported symptoms in retrospective interviews. However, important discrepancies with clinical classifications were observed and the method requires further development, refinement and evaluation in a range of settings.
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