| 1. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic exploration of scenario spaces
- 2016
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Ingår i: Foresight. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 18:1, s. 59-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose - Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings - The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value - The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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| 2. |
- Borrelli, Pablo, et al.
(författare)
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Artificial intelligence-based detection of lymph node metastases by PET/CT predicts prostate cancer-specific survival
- 2021
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Ingår i: Clinical Physiology and Functional Imaging. - : Wiley. - 1475-0961 .- 1475-097X. ; 41:1, s. 62-67
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction Lymph node metastases are a key prognostic factor in prostate cancer (PCa), but detecting lymph node lesions from PET/CT images is a subjective process resulting in inter-reader variability. Artificial intelligence (AI)-based methods can provide an objective image analysis. We aimed at developing and validating an AI-based tool for detection of lymph node lesions. Methods A group of 399 patients with biopsy-proven PCa who had undergone(18)F-choline PET/CT for staging prior to treatment were used to train (n = 319) and test (n = 80) the AI-based tool. The tool consisted of convolutional neural networks using complete PET/CT scans as inputs. In the test set, the AI-based lymph node detections were compared to those of two independent readers. The association with PCa-specific survival was investigated. Results The AI-based tool detected more lymph node lesions than Reader B (98 vs. 87/117;p = .045) using Reader A as reference. AI-based tool and Reader A showed similar performance (90 vs. 87/111;p = .63) using Reader B as reference. The number of lymph node lesions detected by the AI-based tool, PSA, and curative treatment was significantly associated with PCa-specific survival. Conclusion This study shows the feasibility of using an AI-based tool for automated and objective interpretation of PET/CT images that can provide assessments of lymph node lesions comparable with that of experienced readers and prognostic information in PCa patients.
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| 3. |
- Engström, Rebecka Ericsdotter, et al.
(författare)
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Succeeding at home and abroad: accounting for the international spillovers of cities’ SDG actions
- 2021
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Ingår i: npj Urban Sustainability. - : Springer Nature. - 2661-8001. ; 1:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Cities are vital for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), but different local strategies to advance on the same SDG may cause different ‘spillovers’ elsewhere. Research efforts that support governance of such spillovers are urgently needed to empower ambitious cities to ‘account globally’ when acting locally on SDG implementation strategies.
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| 4. |
- Pålsson, Magnus, et al.
(författare)
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Development of a Wood Powder Fuelled 35 kW Stirling CHP Unit
- 2003
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Ingår i: Proceedings of the 11th ISEC (International Stirling Engine Conference). ; , s. 221-230
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Konferensbidrag (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- For biomass fuelled CHP in sizes below 100 kW, Stirling engines are the only feasible alternative today. Using wood powder as fuel, the Stirling engine can be heated directly by the flame like when using a gaseous or liquid fuel burner. However, the combustion chamber will have to be much larger due to the slow burning of the fuel. To avoid sintering of ash the flame temperature in a biomass burner has to be quite low. The flame temperature can be lowered by using a high excess air rate; however this will lower system efficiency and needs a large air preheater. By using combustion gas recirculation (CGR) a smaller air preheater can be used, while system efficiency will increase compared with using excess air for flame cooling. In a three-year project, a wood powder fuelled Stirling engine CHP unit will be developed and run in field test. The project will use the double-acting four-cylinder Stirling engine SM3D with an electric output of 35 kW. This engine is a further development of the engine SM3B that has been developed at the Technical University of Denmark. The engine heater is being adapted for use with wood powder as fuel. During a two-year period a combustion system for this engine, using wood powder as fuel will be developed at Lund University, Sweden, in cooperation with the Technical University of Denmark and with the wood powder boiler manufacturer VTS AB. The unit is to be run in CHP operation by Vattenfall - the largest electric power company in Sweden - in a one-year field test in Älvkarleby, Sweden, and the operation of the unit will be evaluated at the end of the field test period. The unit is intended for blocks of flats, schools, local heat production plants and the wood industry.
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| 5. |
- White, Christopher J., et al.
(författare)
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Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions
- 2017
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Ingår i: Meteorological Applications. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1350-4827 .- 1469-8080. ; 24:3, s. 315-325
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended-range timescale referred to as subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) has received little attention. S2S prediction fills the gap between short-range weather prediction and long-range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended-range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of S2S forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If S2S predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational S2S forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of S2S predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications-relevant S2S predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with S2S development, from communication to decision-making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended-range forecasting. While S2S forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application-ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.
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