| 1. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Co-evolutionary scenarios for creative prototyping of future robot systems for civil protection
- 2014
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Ingår i: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 84, s. 93-100
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Co-evolutionary scenarios are used for creative prototyping with the purpose of assessing potential implications of future autonomous robot systems on civil protection. The methodology is based on a co-evolutionary scenario approach and the development of different evolutionary paths. Opportunities, threats and ethical aspects in connection with the introduction of robotics in the domestic security and safety sector are identified using an iterative participatory workshop methodology. Three creative prototypes of robotic systems are described: "RoboMall", "RoboButler" and "SnakeSquad". The debate in society that might follow the introduction of these three robot systems and society's response to the experienced ethical problems and opportunities are discussed in the context of two scenarios of different future societies.
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| 2. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Systematic exploration of scenario spaces
- 2016
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Ingår i: Foresight. - 1463-6689 .- 1465-9832. ; 18:1, s. 59-75
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Purpose - Scenarios have become a vital methodological approach in business as well as in public policy. When scenarios are used to guide analysis and decision-making, the aim is typically robustness and in this context we argue that two main problems at scenario set level is conservatism, i.e. all scenarios are close to a perceived business-as-usual trajectory and lack of balance in the sense of arbitrarily mixing some conservative and some extreme scenarios. The purpose of this paper is to address these shortcomings by proposing a methodology for generating sets of scenarios which are in a mathematical sense maximally diverse. Design/methodology/approach - In this paper, we develop a systematic methodology, Scenario Diversity Analysis (SDA), which addresses the problems of broad span vs conservatism and imbalance. From a given set of variables with associated states, SDA generates scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best span the whole set of feasible scenarios. Findings - The usefulness of the methodology is exemplified by applying it to sets of storylines of the emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ex-post analysis shows that the storylines were not maximally diverse and given the challenges ahead with regard to emissions reduction and adaptation planning, we argue that it is important to strive for diversity when developing scenario sets for climate change research. Originality/value - The proposed methodology adds significant novel features to the field of systematic scenario generation, especially with regard to scenario diversity. The methodology also enables the combination of systematics with the distinct future logics of good intuitive logics scenarios.
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| 3. |
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| 5. |
- Baard, Patrik, et al.
(författare)
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Scenarios and sustainability : tools for alleviating the gap between municipal means and responsibilities in adaptation planning
- 2012
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Ingår i: Local Environment. - : Informa UK Limited. - 1354-9839 .- 1469-6711. ; 17:6-7, s. 641-662
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Adaptation to climate change often involves long-time frames and uncertainties over the consequences of chosen adaptation measures. In this study, two tools designed for assisting local decision-makers in adaptation planning were tested: socio-economic scenarios and sustainability analysis. The objective was to study whether these tools could be of practical relevance to Swedish municipalities and facilitate local-level climate change adaptation. We found that the municipal planners who participated in the testing generally considered the tools useful and of high relevance, but that more time was needed to use the tools than was provided during the test process.
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| 6. |
- Bennich, Therese, 1989-, et al.
(författare)
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Deciphering the scientific literature on SDG interactions : A review and reading guide
- 2020
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Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 728
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Forskningsöversikt (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 2030 Agenda includes 17 overarching Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). These are integrated in nature, and a principle of indivisibility should guide their implementation. Yet, the 2030 Agenda itself does not provide guidance on what indivisibility means in practice, how the SDGs interact, or on how to assess these interactions. The fast-emerging field of what could be referred to as SDG interaction studies seeks to provide such guidance, but as of yet there is no general agreement on what it means to take an integrated approach to the SDGs. Hence, navigating the diverse research landscape on SDG interactions might prove challenging. This paper aims to decipher the literature on SDG interactions by providing an overview of the current research, based on a sample of 70 peer-reviewed articles. The review explores four themes in SDG interaction research by mapping: (i) policy challenges typically addressed, (ii) ways in which SDG ‘interactions’ have been conceptualized, (iii) data sources used, and (iv) methods of analysis frequently employed. Research gaps are identified, where perspectives largely missing include policy innovation, and integrated monitoring and evaluation. Further, few studies consider actor interactions, account for geographic spill-overs, analyze SDG indicator interactions, employ participatory methods, or take a whole-systems approach to the 2030 Agenda. Failing to address these gaps could lead to inefficient SDG implementation and delay goal attainment. Another contribution of the paper is a reading guide, proposing a way to decipher the literature along the themes emerging from the review, and offering a structure to code future papers.
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| 7. |
- Bodin, Örjan, et al.
(författare)
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Lyxkonsumera för miljöns skull
- 2015
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Ingår i: Expressen. - 1103-923X. ; :28 mars
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Tidskriftsartikel (populärvet., debatt m.m.)
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| 8. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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A sustainable trajectory for the 2030 Agenda: Targeting historical lock‐ins to accelerate progress on all SDGs
- 2024
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Ingår i: Sustainable Development. - 0968-0802 .- 1099-1719.
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The 2030 Agenda states that the 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs) make parts of an indivisible whole, and research on SDG implementation highlights how managing goal interactions—synergies and trade-offs—is key for implementation to be successful. Here, we present an empirically based and transparent method for developing “consistent scenarios” that identifies which SDGs will be unattainable if historical patterns of interaction between SDGs are maintained. Using historical data on SDG indicators and correlation analysis together with cross-impact balance analysis, we identify such scenarios for a set of high- to low-income countries. Finding no consistent scenario where progress can be made on all 17 SDGs for any of the countries, our findings demonstrate the importance of policies that target interactions and resolve trade-offs rather than individual goals to unlock a sustainable future trajectory. This reflects what was novel about the SDGs as a framework for global development; that the goals are indivisible and achieving them all require systemic changes that alter how social and economic processes interact with the environment.
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| 9. |
- Carlsen, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Chasing artificial intelligence in shared socioeconomic pathways
- 2024
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Ingår i: One Earth. - : CELL PRESS. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 7:1, s. 18-22
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Tidskriftsartikel (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The development of artificial intelligence has likely reached an inflection point, with significant implications for how research needs to address emerging technologies and how they drive long-term socioeconomic development of importance for climate change scenarios.
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