| 1. |
- Hedlund, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Cross-Border Climate Impacts in Food Trade Networks
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Annan publikation (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Climate impacts are predicted to become redistributed through countries’ reliance on food trade networks. This constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning, and may affect how countries engage in geopolitical and cooperative action. This paper explores potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks. We ask: i) to what extent might climate change impacts entail a change in the structure of global food trade networks, and ii) how might a change in supply be distributed among the countries in trade blocs? We propose a simple network model to identify how climate change impacts on crops yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining FAO and ISIMIP data, the model is applied to three key staple crops in the global food system: wheat, rice and maize. We use network community detection and functional cartography to analyse the degree to which global production is concentrated within different trade blocs before and after climate change impacts, and how countries distribute supply depending on their different network role. Our results predict that food trade networks may become more disaggregated as countries, particularly major global producers, may increasingly distribute their trade across modules with climate change impacts. Results also estimate that global food security may much depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade blocs can balance production loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline scenario analysis of cross-border impacts on food trade networks, and insight into whether current food trade structures will allow counties to maintain current supply.
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| 2. |
- Hedlund, Johanna, 1988-, et al.
(författare)
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Impacts of climate change on global food trade networks
- 2022
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Ingår i: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 17:12
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Countries’ reliance on global food trade networks implies that regionally different climate change impacts on crop yields will be transmitted across borders. This redistribution constitutes a significant challenge for climate adaptation planning and may affect how countries engage in cooperative action. This paper investigates the long-term (2070–2099) potential impacts of climate change on global food trade networks of three key crops: wheat, rice and maize. We propose a simple network model to project how climate change impacts on crop yields may be translated into changes in trade. Combining trade and climate impact data, our analysis proceeds in three steps. First, we use network community detection to analyse how the concentration of global production in present-day trade communities may become disrupted with climate change impacts. Second, we study how countries may change their network position following climate change impacts. Third, we study the total climate-induced change in production plus import within trade communities. Results indicate that the stability of food trade network structures compared to today differs between crops, and that countries’ maize trade is least stable under climate change impacts. Results also project that threats to global food security may depend on production change in a few major global producers, and whether trade communities can balance production and import loss in some vulnerable countries. Overall, our model contributes a baseline analysis of cross-border climate impacts on food trade networks.
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| 3. |
- Hedlund, Johanna, et al.
(författare)
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Quantifying transnational climate impact exposure : New perspectives on the global distribution of climate risk
- 2018
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 52, s. 75-85
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Indicators used in climate change adaptation planning are largely based on estimates of national or local climate vulnerability. However, classic vulnerability indices do not consider cross-border effects and global interconnections. We attempt to reconcile this need for a broader perspective by developing a global index of exposure to transnational climate impacts, which we define as impacts that are transferred via flows between countries. The index integrates traditional climate vulnerability indicators with spatially-explicit teleconnections between specific countries and constitutes a first approximation of the distribution of such exposure globally. Our results indicate that even though climate risks emerging from within a country's borders are highly correlated with economic development and geography, the distribution of exposure to transnational climate impacts provides a much more complex picture of global vulnerabilities, which neither geography, nor economic development alone can explain sufficiently. This highlights the need to take a cross-scale and multidimensional perspective of climate risk. In order to support more robust adaptation planning, risk assessments should consider both transboundary and far-reaching teleconnected interdependencies between countries.
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