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- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(författare)
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Future narratives
- 2017
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Ingår i: Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic. - Oslo, Norway : Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. ; , s. 109-126
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Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(författare)
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Towards extended shared socioeconomic pathways : A combined participatory bottom-up and top-down methodology with results from the Barents region
- 2017
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Ingår i: Global Environmental Change. - : ELSEVIER SCI LTD. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 45, s. 124-132
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- A major challenge in planning for adaptation to climate change is to assess future development not only in relation to climate but also in relation to social, economic and political changes that affect the capacity for adaptation or otherwise play a role in decision making. One approach is to use scenario methods. This article presents a methodology that combines top-down scenarios and bottom-up approaches to scenario building, with the aim of articulating local so-called extended socio-economic pathways. Specifically, we used the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) of the global scenario framework as developed by the climate research community to present boundary conditions about potential global change in workshop discussion with local and regional actors in the Barents region. We relate the results from these workshops to the different elements of the global SSPs and discuss potential and limitations of the method in relation to use in decision making processes.
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| 3. |
- Nilsson, Annika E., et al.
(författare)
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Uncertain futures : the changing global context of the European Arctic. Report from a scenario workshop in Pajala, Sweden
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- What does the future look like from the perspective of a small municipality in northern Sweden? What social and environmental challenges might there be and how might local people respond? This report presents findings from a workshop in which actors from Pajala municipality and the surrounding region in northern Sweden discussed, together with researchers, challenges for long-term planning posed by a rapidly changing and uncertain global context. The workshop piloted a new approach combining bottom-up participation with scenario work generated within the international climate change research community, in order to construct locally and regionally relevant narratives of possible futures. The resulting narratives feature some issues that do not figure prominently in the assessment of global futures, but also show that local development is perceived as closely linked to global processes, such as changes related to climate and demography. The report’s purpose is to document the workshop results and offer a description of and reflection on the methods employed as a basis for further development of the approach.
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