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- 2019
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)
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| 2. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 3. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 4. |
- Hollestelle, Antoinette, et al.
(författare)
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No clinical utility of KRAS variant rs61764370 for ovarian or breast cancer
- 2016
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Ingår i: Gynecologic Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0090-8258 .- 1095-6859. ; 141:2, s. 386-401
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective Clinical genetic testing is commercially available for rs61764370, an inherited variant residing in a KRAS 3′ UTR microRNA binding site, based on suggested associations with increased ovarian and breast cancer risk as well as with survival time. However, prior studies, emphasizing particular subgroups, were relatively small. Therefore, we comprehensively evaluated ovarian and breast cancer risks as well as clinical outcome associated with rs61764370. Methods Centralized genotyping and analysis were performed for 140,012 women enrolled in the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (15,357 ovarian cancer patients; 30,816 controls), the Breast Cancer Association Consortium (33,530 breast cancer patients; 37,640 controls), and the Consortium of Modifiers of BRCA1 and BRCA2 (14,765 BRCA1 and 7904 BRCA2 mutation carriers). Results We found no association with risk of ovarian cancer (OR = 0.99, 95% CI 0.94-1.04, p = 0.74) or breast cancer (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.94-1.01, p = 0.19) and results were consistent among mutation carriers (BRCA1, ovarian cancer HR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.97-1.23, p = 0.14, breast cancer HR = 1.04, 95% CI 0.97-1.12, p = 0.27; BRCA2, ovarian cancer HR = 0.89, 95% CI 0.71-1.13, p = 0.34, breast cancer HR = 1.06, 95% CI 0.94-1.19, p = 0.35). Null results were also obtained for associations with overall survival following ovarian cancer (HR = 0.94, 95% CI 0.83-1.07, p = 0.38), breast cancer (HR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.87-1.06, p = 0.38), and all other previously-reported associations. Conclusions rs61764370 is not associated with risk of ovarian or breast cancer nor with clinical outcome for patients with these cancers. Therefore, genotyping this variant has no clinical utility related to the prediction or management of these cancers.
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| 5. |
- Shu, Xiang, et al.
(författare)
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Associations of obesity and circulating insulin and glucose with breast cancer risk : a Mendelian randomization analysis
- 2019
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Ingår i: International Journal of Epidemiology. - : OXFORD UNIV PRESS. - 0300-5771 .- 1464-3685. ; 48:3, s. 795-806
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: In addition to the established association between general obesity and breast cancer risk, central obesity and circulating fasting insulin and glucose have been linked to the development of this common malignancy. Findings from previous studies, however, have been inconsistent, and the nature of the associations is unclear. Methods: We conducted Mendelian randomization analyses to evaluate the association of breast cancer risk, using genetic instruments, with fasting insulin, fasting glucose, 2-h glucose, body mass index (BMI) and BMI-adjusted waist-hip-ratio (WHRadj BMI). We first confirmed the association of these instruments with type 2 diabetes risk in a large diabetes genome-wide association study consortium. We then investigated their associations with breast cancer risk using individual-level data obtained from 98 842 cases and 83 464 controls of European descent in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Results: All sets of instruments were associated with risk of type 2 diabetes. Associations with breast cancer risk were found for genetically predicted fasting insulin [odds ratio (OR) = 1.71 per standard deviation (SD) increase, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.26-2.31, p = 5.09 x 10(-4)], 2-h glucose (OR = 1.80 per SD increase, 95% CI = 1.3 0-2.49, p = 4.02 x 10(-4)), BMI (OR = 0.70 per 5-unit increase, 95% CI = 0.65-0.76, p = 5.05 x 10(-19)) and WHRadj BMI (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.79-0.91, p = 9.22 x 10(-6)). Stratified analyses showed that genetically predicted fasting insulin was more closely related to risk of estrogen-receptor [ER]-positive cancer, whereas the associations with instruments of 2h glucose, BMI and WHRadj BMI were consistent regardless of age, menopausal status, estrogen receptor status and family history of breast cancer. Conclusions: We confirmed the previously reported inverse association of genetically predicted BMI with breast cancer risk, and showed a positive association of genetically predicted fasting insulin and 2-h glucose and an inverse association of WHRadj BMI with breast cancer risk. Our study suggests that genetically determined obesity and glucose/insulin-related traits have an important role in the aetiology of breast cancer.
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| 7. |
- Ahern, Tomás, et al.
(författare)
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Natural history, risk factors and clinical features of primary hypogonadism in ageing men : Longitudinal Data from the European Male Ageing Study
- 2016
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Ingår i: Clinical Endocrinology. - : Wiley. - 0300-0664. ; 85:6, s. 891-901
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Objective: In ageing men, the incidence and clinical significance of testosterone (T) decline accompanied by elevated luteinizing hormone (LH) are unclear. We describe the natural history, risk factors and clinical features associated with the development of biochemical primary hypogonadism (PHG, T < 10·5 nmol/l and LH>9·4U/l) in ageing men. Design, Patients and Measurements: A prospective observational cohort survey of 3,369 community-dwelling men aged 40-79 years, followed up for 4·3 years. Men were classified as incident (i) PHG (eugonadal [EUG, T ≥ 10·5 nmol/l] at baseline, PHG at follow-up), persistent (p) PHG (PHG at baseline and follow-up), pEUG (EUG at baseline and follow-up) and reversed (r) PHG (PHG at baseline, EUG at follow-up). Predictors and changes in clinical features associated with the development of PHG were analysed by regression models. Results: Of 1,991 men comprising the analytical sample, 97·5% had pEUG, 1·1% iPHG, 1·1% pPHG and 0·3% rPHG. The incidence of PHG was 0·2%/year. Higher age (>70 years) [OR 12·48 (1·27-122·13), P = 0·030] and chronic illnesses [OR 4·24 (1·08-16·56); P = 0·038] predicted iPHG. Upon transition from EUG to PHG, erectile function, physical vigour and haemoglobin worsened significantly. Men with pPHG had decreased morning erections, sexual thoughts and haemoglobin with increased insulin resistance. Conclusions: Primary testicular failure in men is uncommon and predicted by old age and chronic illness. Some clinical features attributable to androgen deficiency, but not others, accompanied the T decline in men who developed biochemical PHG. Whether androgen replacement can improve sexual and/or physical function in elderly men with PHG merits further study.
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| 8. |
- Antonio, Leen, et al.
(författare)
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Associations Between Sex Steroids and the Development of Metabolic Syndrome: A Longitudinal Study in European Men
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 1945-7197 .- 0021-972X. ; 100:4, s. 1396-1404
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: Low testosterone (T) has been associated with incident metabolic syndrome (MetS), but it remains unclear if this association is independent of sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG). Estradiol (E2) may also be associated with MetS, but few studies have investigated this. Objective: To study the association between baseline sex steroids and the development of incident MetS and to investigate the influence of SHBG, body mass index (BMI) and insulin resistance on this risk. Methods: Three thousand three hundred sixty nine community-dwelling men aged 40-79 years were recruited for participation in EMAS. MetS was defined by the updated NCEP ATP III criteria. Testosterone and E2 levels were measured by liquid and gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, respectively. Logistic regression was used to assess the association between sex steroids and incident MetS. Results: One thousand six hundred fifty one men without MetS at baseline were identified. During follow-up, 289 men developed incident MetS, while 1362 men did not develop MetS. Men with lower baseline total T levels were at higher risk for developing MetS [odds ratio (OR) = 1.72, P < .001), even after adjustment for SHBG (OR = 1.43, P < .001), BMI (OR = 1.44, P < .001) or homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (OR = 1.64, P < .001). E2 was not associated with development of MetS (OR = 1.04; P = .56). However, a lower E2/T ratio was associated with a lower risk of incident MetS (OR = 0.38; P < .001), even after adjustment for SHBG (OR = 0.48; P < .001), BMI (OR = 0.60; P = .001) or HOMA-IR (OR = 0.41; P < .001). Conclusions: Inmen, lower Tlevels, but not E2, are linked with an increased risk of developing MetS, independent of SHBG, BMI or insulin resistance. A lower E2/T ratio may be protective against developing MetS.
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| 9. |
- Rastrelli, Giulia, et al.
(författare)
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Development of and Recovery from Secondary Hypogonadism in Aging Men: Prospective Results from the EMAS
- 2015
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Ingår i: Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism. - : The Endocrine Society. - 1945-7197 .- 0021-972X. ; 100:8, s. 3172-3182
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Context: Secondary hypogonadism is common in aging men; its natural history and predisposing factors are unclear. Objectives: The objectives were 1) to identify factors that predispose eugonadal men (T >= 10.5 nmol/L) to develop biochemical secondary hypogonadism (T < 10.5 nmol/L; LH <= 9.4 U/L) and secondary hypogonadal men to recover to eugonadism; and 2) to characterize clinical features associated with these transitions. Design: The study was designed as a prospective observational general population cohort survey. Setting: The setting was clinical research centers. Participants: The participants were 3369 community-dwelling men aged 40-79 years in eight European centers. Intervention: Interventions included observational follow-up of 4.3 years. Main Outcome Measure: Subjects were categorized according to change/no change in biochemical gonadal status during follow-up as follows: persistent eugonadal (n = 1909), incident secondary hypogonadal (n = 140), persistent secondary hypogonadal (n = 123), and recovered from secondary hypogonadism to eugonadism (n = 96). Baseline predictors and changes in clinical features associated with incident secondary hypogonadism and recovery from secondary hypogonadism were analyzed by regression models. Results: The incidence of secondary hypogonadism was 155.9/10 000/year, whereas 42.9% of men with secondary hypogonadism recovered to eugonadism. Incident secondary hypogonadism was predicted by obesity(body mass index >= 30 kg/m(2); odds ratio [OR] = 2.86 [95% confidenceinterval, 1.67; 4.90]; P < .0001), weight gain (OR = 1.79 [1.15; 2.80]; P = .011), and increased waist circumference (OR = 1.73 [1.07; 2.81], P = .026; and OR = 2.64 [1.66; 4.21], P < .0001, for waist circumference 94-102 and >= 102 cm, respectively). Incident secondary hypogonadal men experienced new/worsening sexual symptoms (low libido, erectile dysfunction, and infrequent spontaneous erections). Recovery from secondary hypogonadism was predicted by nonobesity(OR = 2.28 [1.21; 4.31]; P = .011), weight loss (OR = 2.24 [1.04; 4.85]; P = .042), normal waist circumference (OR = 1.93 [1.01; 3.70]; P = .048), younger age (<60 y; OR = 2.32 [1.12; 4.82]; P = .024), and higher education (OR = 2.11 [1.05; 4.26]; P = .037), but symptoms did not show significant concurrent improvement. Conclusion: Obesity-related metabolic and lifestyle factors predispose older men to the development of secondary hypogonadism, which is frequently reversible with weight loss.
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