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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 4. |
- Ballantyne, Kaye N., et al.
(författare)
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Toward Male Individualization with Rapidly Mutating Y-Chromosomal Short Tandem Repeats
- 2014
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Ingår i: Human Mutation. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1059-7794 .- 1098-1004. ; 35:8, s. 1021-1032
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Relevant for various areas of human genetics, Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (Y-STRs) are commonly used for testing close paternal relationships among individuals and populations, and for male lineage identification. However, even the widely used 17-loci Yfiler set cannot resolve individuals and populations completely. Here, 52 centers generated quality-controlled data of 13 rapidly mutating (RM) Y-STRs in 14,644 related and unrelated males from 111 worldwide populations. Strikingly, greater than99% of the 12,272 unrelated males were completely individualized. Haplotype diversity was extremely high (global: 0.9999985, regional: 0.99836-0.9999988). Haplotype sharing between populations was almost absent except for six (0.05%) of the 12,156 haplotypes. Haplotype sharing within populations was generally rare (0.8% nonunique haplotypes), significantly lower in urban (0.9%) than rural (2.1%) and highest in endogamous groups (14.3%). Analysis of molecular variance revealed 99.98% of variation within populations, 0.018% among populations within groups, and 0.002% among groups. Of the 2,372 newly and 156 previously typed male relative pairs, 29% were differentiated including 27% of the 2,378 father-son pairs. Relative to Yfiler, haplotype diversity was increased in 86% of the populations tested and overall male relative differentiation was raised by 23.5%. Our study demonstrates the value of RMY-STRs in identifying and separating unrelated and related males and provides a reference database.
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| 5. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(författare)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 6. |
- Adey, Brett N., et al.
(författare)
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Large-scale analyses of CAV1 and CAV2 suggest their expression is higher in post-mortem ALS brain tissue and affects survival
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Cellular Neuroscience. - : Frontiers Media S.A.. - 1662-5102. ; 17
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: Caveolin-1 and Caveolin-2 (CAV1 and CAV2) are proteins associated with intercellular neurotrophic signalling. There is converging evidence that CAV1 and CAV2 (CAV1/2) genes have a role in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Disease-associated variants have been identified within CAV1/2 enhancers, which reduce gene expression and lead to disruption of membrane lipid rafts.Methods: Using large ALS whole-genome sequencing and post-mortem RNA sequencing datasets (5,987 and 365 tissue samples, respectively), and iPSC-derived motor neurons from 55 individuals, we investigated the role of CAV1/2 expression and enhancer variants in the ALS phenotype.Results: We report a differential expression analysis between ALS cases and controls for CAV1 and CAV2 genes across various post-mortem brain tissues and three independent datasets. CAV1 and CAV2 expression was consistently higher in ALS patients compared to controls, with significant results across the primary motor cortex, lateral motor cortex, and cerebellum. We also identify increased survival among carriers of CAV1/2 enhancer mutations compared to non-carriers within Project MinE and slower progression as measured by the ALSFRS. Carriers showed a median increase in survival of 345 days.Discussion: These results add to an increasing body of evidence linking CAV1 and CAV2 genes to ALS. We propose that carriers of CAV1/2 enhancer mutations may be conceptualised as an ALS subtype who present a less severe ALS phenotype with a longer survival duration and slower progression. Upregulation of CAV1/2 genes in ALS cases may indicate a causal pathway or a compensatory mechanism. Given prior research supporting the beneficial role of CAV1/2 expression in ALS patients, we consider a compensatory mechanism to better fit the available evidence, although further investigation into the biological pathways associated with CAV1/2 is needed to support this conclusion.
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| 7. |
- Al-Chalabi, Ammar, et al.
(författare)
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July 2017 ENCALS statement on edaravone
- 2017
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Ingår i: Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Degeneration. - : TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD. - 2167-8421 .- 2167-9223. ; 18:7-8, s. 471-474
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
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| 8. |
- Carvalho, Raquel N., et al.
(författare)
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Mixtures of chemical pollutants at European legislation safety concentrations : how safe are they?
- 2014
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Ingår i: Toxicological Sciences. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1096-6080 .- 1096-0929. ; 141:1, s. 218-233
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The risk posed by complex chemical mixtures in the environment to wildlife and humans is increasingly debated, but has been rarely tested under environmentally relevant scenarios. To address this issue, two mixtures of 14 or 19 substances of concern (pesticides, pharmaceuticals, heavy metals, polyaromatic hydrocarbons, a surfactant, and a plasticizer), each present at its safety limit concentration imposed by the European legislation, were prepared and tested for their toxic effects. The effects of the mixtures were assessed in 35 bioassays, based on 11 organisms representing different trophic levels. A consortium of 16 laboratories was involved in performing the bioassays. The mixtures elicited quantifiable toxic effects on some of the test systems employed, including i) changes in marine microbial composition, ii) microalgae toxicity, iii) immobilization in the crustacean Daphnia magna, iv) fish embryo toxicity, v) impaired frog embryo development, and vi) increased expression on oxidative stress-linked reporter genes. Estrogenic activity close to regulatory safety limit concentrations was uncovered by receptor-binding assays. The results highlight the need of precautionary actions on the assessment of chemical mixtures even in cases where individual toxicants are present at seemingly harmless concentrations.
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| 9. |
- Daiuto, Sergio A., et al.
(författare)
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Angiotensinergic and GABAergic transmission in the medial preoptic area: role in urinary bladder and cardiovascular control in female rats
- 2023
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Ingår i: Frontiers in Physiology. - 1664-042X. ; 14
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Introduction: The medial preoptic area (mPOA) participates in thermoregulatory control and blood pressure modulation as shown by studies with electrical stimulation of this area or cobalt chloride injection, a non-selective synapse inhibitor. This study aimed to investigate whether angiotensin II (Ang II) and GABA could act or not in the mPOA to mediate the cardiovascular and micturition control pathways. Methods: Female Wistar rats were submitted to stereotaxic surgery for implantation of a guide cannula into the mPOA 7days prior to the experiments. Afterwards, the animals were isoflurane- anesthetized and submitted to the catheterization of the femoral artery and vein and urinary bladder cannulation for mean arterial pressure (MAP), heart rate (HR), and intravesical pressure (IP) recordings, respectively. After the baseline MAP, HR, and IP recordings for 15min, Ang II (0.1nM, 1μL), losartan (AT-1 receptor antagonist, 100nM, 1μL), GABA (50mM, 1μL) or saline (1μL) were injected into the mPOA, and the variables were measured for additional 30min. In a different group of rats, the AT-1 receptor, angiotensin II converting enzyme (ACE), and GABAa receptor gene expression was evaluated in mPOA samples by qPCR. The data are as mean ± SEM and submitted to One-way ANOVA (Tukey posttest) or paired Student t-test (P <0.05). Results: The injection of Ang II into the mPOA evoked a significant hypotension (−37±10mmHg, n = 6, p = 0.024) and bradycardia (−47 ± 20bpm, p = 0.030) compared to saline (+1 ± 1mmHg and +6 ± 2bpm, n = 6). A significant increase in IP was observed after Ang II injection into the mPOA (+72.25 ± 17.91%, p = 0.015 vs. −1.80 ± 2.98%, n = 6, saline). No significant changes were observed in MAP, HR and IP after the losartan injection in the mPOA compared to saline injection. Injection of GABA into the mPOA evoked a significant fall in MAP and HR (−68 ± 2mmHg, n = 6, p < 0.0001 and −115 ± 14bpm, n = 6, p = 0.0002 vs. −1 ± 1mmHg and +4 ± 2bpm, n = 6, saline), but no significant changes were observed in IP. The AT-1 receptor, ACE and GABAa receptor mRNA expression was observed in all mPOA samples. Discussion: Therefore, in female rats, Ang II mediated transmission in the mPOA is involved in the cardiovascular regulation and in the control of central micturition pathways. A phasic control dependent on AT-1 receptors in the mPOA seems to be involved in the regulation of those cardiovascular and intravesical 3 parameters. In contrast, GABAergic transmission in the mPOA participates in the pathways of cardiovascular control in anesthetized female rats, nevertheless, this neurotransmission is not involved in the micturition control.
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