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  • Chen, H. W., et al. (författare)
  • A robust mode of climate variability in the Arctic: The Barents Oscillation
  • 2013
  • Ingår i: Geophysical Research Letters. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0094-8276 .- 1944-8007. ; 40:11, s. 2856-2861
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Barents Oscillation (BO) is an anomalous wintertime atmospheric circulation pattern in the Northern Hemisphere that has been linked to the meridional flow over the Nordic Seas. There are speculations that the BO has important implications for the Arctic climate; however, it has also been suggested that the pattern is an artifact of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis due to an eastward shift of the Arctic Oscillation/North Atlantic Oscillation (AO/NAO). In this study, EOF analyses are performed to show that a robust pattern resembling the BO can be found during different time periods, even when the AO/NAO is relatively stationary. This BO has a high and stable temporal correlation with the geostrophic zonal wind over the Barents Sea, while the contribution from the AO/NAO is small. The surface air temperature anomalies over the Barents Sea are closely associated with this mode of climate variability.
  • Gong, Lebing, et al. (författare)
  • Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin
  • 2006
  • Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 329, s. 620-629
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation of reference evapotranspiration (ETref). In this study, a non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ETref to perturbations of four climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin. ETref was estimated with the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation. A 41-year historical dataset of daily air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and daily sunshine duration at 150 national meteorological observatory stations was used in the analysis. Results show that the response of ETref can be precisely predicted under perturbation of relative humidity or shortwave radiation by their sensitivity coefficients; the predictive power under perturbations of air temperature and wind speed depended on the magnitude of the perturbation, season and region. The prediction errors were much smaller than the seasonal and regional variation of their sensitivity coefficients. The sensitivity coefficient could also be used to predict the response of ETref to co-perturbation of several variables. The accuracy of the prediction increases from the lower to the upper region. Spatial variations of long-term average monthly and yearly sensitivity coefficients were obtained by interpolation of station estimates. In general, relative humidity was the most sensitive variable, followed by shortwave radiation, air temperature and wind speed. The actual rank of the four climatic variables in terms of their sensitivity varied with season and region. The large spatial variability of the sensitivity coefficients of all the climatic variables in the middle and lower regions of the basin was to a large extent determined by the distinct wind-speed patterns in those two regions.
  • Hu, Z. Y., et al. (författare)
  • Groundwater Depletion Estimated from GRACE: A Challenge of Sustainable Development in an Arid Region of Central Asia
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Remote Sensing. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-4292. ; 11:16
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Under climate change and increasing water demands, groundwater depletion has become regional and global threats for water security, which is an indispensable target to achieving sustainable developments of human society and ecosystems, especially in arid and semiarid regions where groundwater is a major water source. In this study, groundwater depletion of 2003-2016 over Xinjiang in China, a typical arid region of Central Asia, is assessed using the gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) satellite and the global land data assimilation system (GLDAS) datasets. In the transition of a warm-dry to a warm-wet climate in Xinjiang, increases in precipitation, soil moisture and snow water equivalent are detected, while GRACE-based groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) exhibit significant decreasing trends with rates between-3.61 +/- 0.85 mm/a of CSR-GWSA and -3.10 +/- 0.91 mm/a of JPL-GWSA. Groundwater depletion is more severe in autumn and winter. The decreases in GRACE-based GWSA are in a good agreement with the groundwater statistics collected from local authorities. However, at the same time, groundwater abstraction in Xinjiang doubled, and the water supplies get more dependent on groundwater. The magnitude of groundwater depletion is about that of annual groundwater abstraction, suggesting that scientific exploitation of groundwater is the key to ensure the sustainability of freshwater withdrawals and supplies. Furthermore, GWSA changes can be well estimated by the partial least square regression (PLSR) method based on inputs of climate data. Therefore, GRACE observations provide a feasible approach for local policy makers to monitor and forecast groundwater changes to control groundwater depletion.
  • Wei, T., et al. (författare)
  • Quantitative Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Carbon Transferred by International Trade
  • 2016
  • Ingår i: Scientific Reports. - 2045-2322. ; 6
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Carbon transfer via international trade affects the spatial pattern of global carbon emissions by redistributing emissions related to production of goods and services. It has potential impacts on attribution of the responsibility of various countries for climate change and formulation of carbon-reduction policies. However, the effect of carbon transfer on climate change has not been quantified. Here, we present a quantitative estimate of climatic impacts of carbon transfer based on a simple CO2 Impulse Response Function and three Earth System Models. The results suggest that carbon transfer leads to a migration of CO2 by 0.1-3.9 ppm or 3-9% of the rise in the global atmospheric concentrations from developed countries to developing countries during 1990-2005 and potentially reduces the effectiveness of the Kyoto Protocol by up to 5.3%. However, the induced atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate changes (e.g., in temperature, ocean heat content, and sea-ice) are very small and lie within observed interannual variability. Given continuous growth of transferred carbon emissions and their proportion in global total carbon emissions, the climatic effect of traded carbon is likely to become more significant in the future, highlighting the need to consider carbon transfer in future climate negotiations.
  • Yao, Tandong, et al. (författare)
  • Recent Third Pole’s rapid warming accompanies cryospheric melt and water cycle intensification and interactions between monsoon and environment: multi-disciplinary approach with observation, modeling and analysis
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society. - 0003-0007 .- 1520-0477. ; :March, s. 423-444
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • The Third Pole (TP) is experiencing rapid warming and is currently in its warmest period in the past 2,000 years. This paper reviews the latest development in multidisciplinary TP research associated with this warming. The rapid warming facilitates intense and broad glacier melt over most of the TP, although some glaciers in the northwest are advancing. By heating the atmosphere and reducing snow/ice albedo, aerosols also contribute to the glaciers melting. Glacier melt is accompanied by lake expansion and intensification of the water cycle over the TP. Precipitation has increased over the eastern and northwestern TP. Meanwhile, the TP is greening and most regions are experiencing advancing phenological trends, although over the southwest there is a spring phenological delay mainly in response to the recent decline in spring precipitation. Atmospheric and terrestrial thermal and dynamical processes over the TP affect the Asian monsoon at different scales. Recent evidence indicates substantial roles that mesoscale convective systems play in the TP’s precipitation as well as an association between soil moisture anomalies in the TP and the Indian monsoon. Moreover, an increase in geohazard events has been associated with recent environmental changes, some of which have had catastrophic consequences caused by glacial lake outbursts and landslides. Active debris flows are growing in both frequency of occurrences and spatial scale. Meanwhile, new types of disasters, such as the twin ice avalanches in Ali in 2016, are now appearing in the region. Adaptation and mitigation measures should be taken to help societies’ preparation for future environmental challenges. Some key issues for future TP studies are also discussed.
  • Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al. (författare)
  • Assessing reliability of precipitation data over the Mekong River Basin: A comparison of ground-based, satellite, and reanalysis datasets
  • 2018
  • Ingår i: International Journal of Climatology. - 0899-8418. ; 38:11, s. 4314-4334
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Accurate precipitation data are the basis for hydro-climatological studies. As a highly populated river basin, with the biggest inland fishery in Southeast Asia, freshwater dynamics is extremely important for the Mekong River Basin (MB). This study focuses on evaluating the reliability of existing gridded precipitation datasets both from satellite and reanalysis, with a ground observations-based gridded precipitation dataset as the reference. Two satellite products (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission [TRMM] and the Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using an Artificial Neural NetworkClimate Data Record [PERSIANN-CDR]), as well as three reanalysis products (Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications [MERRA2], the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis [ERA-Interim], and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis [CFSR]) were compared with the Asian PrecipitationHighly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE) over the MB. The APHRODITE was chosen as the reference for the comparison because it was developed based on ground observations and has also been selected as reference data in previous studies. Results show that most of the assessed datasets are able to capture the major climatological characteristics of precipitation in the MB for the 10-year study period (1998-2007). Generally, both satellite data (TRMM and PERSIANN-CDR) show higher reliability than reanalysis products at both spatial and temporal scales across the MB, with the TRMM outperforming when compared to the PERSIANN-CDR. For the reanalysis products, MERRA2 is more reliable in terms of temporal variability, but with some underestimation of precipitation. The other two reanalysis products CFSR and ERA-Interim are relatively unreliable due to large overestimations. CFSR is better positioned to capture the spatial variability of precipitation, while ERA-Interim shows inconsistent spatial patterns but more realistically resembles the daily precipitation probability. These findings have practical implications for future hydro-climatological studies.
  • Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al. (författare)
  • Flood impact on Mainland Southeast Asia between 1985 and 2018 — The role of tropical cyclones
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Journal of Flood Risk Management. - 1753-318X. ; 13:2
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • Floods are disastrous natural hazards accused of human live losses. As a flood‐prone area, Mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has often been hit by floods, resulting in the highest fatality in the world. Despite the destructive flood impacts, how has flood occurrence changed over the past decades, and to what extent did floods affect the MSEA are not yet clear. Using the Dartmouth Flood Observatory large flood data archive, we aim to assess the trend of flood occurrence in the MSEA in 1985–2018, and quantify the associated impacts on humans. Particularly, the contribution of tropical cyclone (TC) landfall induced floods (TCFloods) is quantified, because of the frequent TC landfalls. Results show that (a) occurrence and maximum magnitude of floods by all causes (ALLFloods) significantly increased (p < .01), but not for TCFloods; (b) On average, TCFloods accounted for 24.6% occurrence of ALLFloods; (c) TCFloods caused higher mortality and displacement rate than ALLFloods did. As low flood protection standards in Cambodia and Myanmar is considered a reason for high flood‐induced mortalities, building higher flood protection standards should be taken as a priority for mitigating potential flood impacts. With quantifying flood occurrence and impacts, this study offers scientific understandings for better flood risk management.
  • Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al. (författare)
  • Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
  • 2020
  • Ingår i: Science Bulletin. - 2095-9273 .- 2095-9281. ; 65:5, s. 419-424
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • © 2019 Science China Press The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond.
  • Chen, Aifang, 1990, et al. (författare)
  • Tropical cyclone rainfall in the Mekong River Basin for 1983–2016
  • 2019
  • Ingår i: Atmospheric Research. - 0169-8095. ; 226, s. 66-75
  • Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
    • As home to about 70 million people, the Mekong River Basin (MRB), located in Mainland Southeast Asia, is often influenced by tropical cyclones (TCs) landfalling. The TCs not only cause flood and storm hazards, but also play important roles in providing freshwater resource and welcomed sediment transports. Our study focuses on the climatology of TCs and associated rainfall (TCR) in the MRB for 1983–2016. Results show that: (i) the mean landfall occurrence of TCs is 6.2 yr −1 , leading to 36.7 mm yr −1 of annual mean TCR (2.5% of the annual total precipitation), which mainly occur in monsoon-TC season (i.e., June–November); (ii) TCs highly concentrate on the lower eastern MRB, generating the largest TCR contribution of 12.4% to the annual total precipitation; (iii) the annual mean contribution of TCs induced extreme precipitation - R20mm and R50mm (days of heavy precipitation rate ≥20 mm day −1 and ≥50 mm day −1 , respectively) - to that from annual total precipitation is large in the lower eastern MRB; (iv) over 60% of the basin area is influenced by TCR on average; and (v) a significant weakening trend of the TC frequency has been observed. The present findings lay a foundation for further in-depth research of the potential influence of the dynamic TCs and the associated rainfall in the MRB. © 2019
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