| 1. |
- Gong, Lebing, et al.
(författare)
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Sensitivity of the Penman–Monteith reference evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin
- 2006
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Ingår i: Journal of Hydrology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0022-1694 .- 1879-2707. ; 329:3-4, s. 620-629
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Sensitivity analysis is important in understanding the relative importance of climatic variables to the variation of reference evapotranspiration (ETref). In this study, a non-dimensional relative sensitivity coefficient was employed to predict responses of ETref to perturbations of four climatic variables in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) basin. ETref was estimated with the FAO-56 Penman–Monteith equation. A 41-year historical dataset of daily air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and daily sunshine duration at 150 national meteorological observatory stations was used in the analysis. Results show that the response of ETref can be precisely predicted under perturbation of relative humidity or shortwave radiation by their sensitivity coefficients; the predictive power under perturbations of air temperature and wind speed depended on the magnitude of the perturbation, season and region. The prediction errors were much smaller than the seasonal and regional variation of their sensitivity coefficients. The sensitivity coefficient could also be used to predict the response of ETref to co-perturbation of several variables. The accuracy of the prediction increases from the lower to the upper region. Spatial variations of long-term average monthly and yearly sensitivity coefficients were obtained by interpolation of station estimates. In general, relative humidity was the most sensitive variable, followed by shortwave radiation, air temperature and wind speed. The actual rank of the four climatic variables in terms of their sensitivity varied with season and region. The large spatial variability of the sensitivity coefficients of all the climatic variables in the middle and lower regions of the basin was to a large extent determined by the distinct wind-speed patterns in those two regions.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Spatial Interpolation of Daily Precipitation in China : 1951-2005
- 2010
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Ingår i: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0256-1530 .- 1861-9533. ; 27:6, s. 1221-1232
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate research relies heavily on good quality instrumental data; for modeling efforts gridded data are needed. So far, relatively little effort has been made to create gridded climate data for China. This is especially true for high-resolution daily data. This work, focuses on identifying an accurate method to produce gridded daily precipitation in China based on the observed data at 753 stations for the period 1951-2005. Five interpolation methods, including ordinary nearest neighbor, local polynomial, radial basis function, inverse distance weighting, and ordinary kriging, have been used and compared. Cross-validation shows that the ordinary kriging based on seasonal semi-variograms gives the best performance, closely followed by the inverse distance weighting with a power of 2. Finally the ordinary kriging is chosen to interpolate the station data to a 18 kmx 18 km grid system covering the whole country. Precipitation for each 0.5A degrees x 0.5A degrees latitude-longitude block is then obtained by averaging the values at the grid nodes within the block. Owing to the higher station density in the eastern part of the country, the interpolation errors are much smaller than those in the west (west of 100A degrees E). Excluding 145 stations in the western region, the daily, monthly, and annual relative mean absolute errors of the interpolation for the remaining 608 stations are 74%, 29%, and 16%, respectively. The interpolated daily precipitation has been made available on the internet for the scientific community.
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| 4. |
- Chen, Deliang, 1961, et al.
(författare)
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Summary of a workshop on extreme weather events in a warming world organized by the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
- 2020
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Ingår i: Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meteorology. - : Stockholm University Press. - 1600-0889 .- 0280-6509. ; 72:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Climate change is not only about changes in means of climatic variables such as temperature, precipitation and wind, but also their extreme values which are of critical importance to human society and ecosystems. To inspire the Swedish climate research community and to promote assessments of international research on past and future changes in extreme weather events against the global climate change background, the Earth Science Class of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences organized a workshop entitled 'Extreme weather events in a warming world' in 2019. This article summarizes and synthesizes the key points from the presentations and discussions of the workshop on changes in floods, droughts, heat waves, as well as on tropical cyclones and extratropical storms. In addition to reviewing past achievements in these research fields and identifying research gaps with a focus on Sweden, future challenges and opportunities for the Swedish climate research community are highlighted.
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| 5. |
- Gao, Ge, 1972, et al.
(författare)
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Trend of estimated actual evapotranspiration over China during 1960-2002
- 2007
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Ingår i: Journal of Geophysical Research. - 0148-0227 .- 2156-2202. ; 112:D11120
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, the water balance methodology introduced by Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) is modified to estimate monthly actual evapotranspiration for 686 stations over China during 1960–2002. The modification is done by replacing the Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration estimation with the Penman-Monteith method. Temporal trend and spatial distribution of the estimated annual actual evapotranspiration during the past 43 years are analyzed. The results show that (1) the actual evapotranspiration had a decreasing trend in most areas east of 100°E, and there was an increasing trend in the west and the north parts of northeast China; (2) the spatial distribution of the trend for the actual evapotranspiration is similar to that of the potential evapotranspiration in south China, while the trends are opposite in north China; (3) for most parts of China, the change in precipitation played a key role for the change of estimated actual evapotranspiration, while in southeast China, the change of potential evapotranspiration appeared to be the major factor; and (4) in general, the hydrological cycle was intensified in western China, whereas it was weakened from the Yellow River basin northward.
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| 6. |
- Leeding, Richard
(författare)
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Wintertime compound extremes in Europe and North America : from dynamics to predictability
- 2023
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This thesis examines the co-occurrence of wintertime low temperature extremes (cold spells) over North America and wet or windy extremes over Europe. Prolonged (≅ 5 days) North American cold spells can be associated with both upstream and downstream anomalous large-scale atmospheric flows, the latter modulating extreme weather occurrences over Europe. The approximate co-occurrence of European wet or windy extremes with North American cold spells is temporally and spatially dependent on the location of cold spells. We identify three broad regional clusters of cold spells: Central Canada: cold spells are predominantly preceded by Iberian precipitation extremes.Eastern United States: occurrences of both wind and precipitation extremes in Iberia before and after the cold spell.East Canada: cold spells are predominantly followed by wind extremes over the British Isles and Northern Europe.We show that cold spells over these three regions are associated with distinct storm track and jet stream anomalies over the North Atlantic. Iberia experiences a higher number of extratropical cyclones during Central Canada cold spells due to an equatorward displacement of the jet. However, the propagation of extratropical cyclones over Europe is limited due to a Scandinavian block-type configuration over Northern Europe. Eastern United States cold spells show a similar configuration to Central Canada. However, this configuration does not show the Scandinavian block-type feature, resulting in a higher number of extratropical cyclones affecting Iberia and Southern Europe. Eastern Canada cold spells are associated with an extended and accelerated jet over Northern Europe. As a result, the UK, France and Northern Europe experience more intense extratropical cyclones on average, with the accelerated jet resulting in stronger extratropical cyclones throughout the North Atlantic in general. These results evidence the existence of a systematic statistical and dynamical connection between North American cold spells and European wet or windy extremes.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
- Persson, Tony, 1966-
(författare)
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Evaporation and Heat-flux Aggregation in Heterogeneous Boreal Landscapes
- 2004
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The boreal forests represent 8 % of all forested areas on the earth and have a significant role in the control of greenhouse gases and an impact on global climate change. The main objective of this thesis is to increase the understanding of how evaporation and heat-flux processes in the boreal forest zone are affecting the regional and global climate.A meteorological mesoscale model with an advanced land-surface parameterization has been utilized to study aggregation of fluxes of water vapour and heat. The model has been compared against four other methods for flux estimation in a southern boreal landscape. The results show that the mesoscale model is successfully reproducing 24-hour averages of fractionally weighted mast measurements of sensible and latent heat flux.The model was also evaluated against in-situ observations of surface fluxes and other meteorological variables. The results reveal that a correct initialization of soil moisture is crucial to simulate a realistic partitioning of the sensible and latent heat fluxes. Significant differences in surface fluxes and friction velocities between two apparently similar forest sites indicate the need for careful assessment of areal representativity when comparing mesoscale model results with in-situ observations.A parameterization for the absorption of solar radiation of high-latitude sparse forests was implemented and tested in the model that significantly improved the simulation of high wintertime midday sensible heat fluxes. A scheme for heat storage in vegetation was also implemented which improved the results, but the scheme needs further evaluation for high latitude forests.Two commonly used strategies for the description of land-surface heterogeneity, the effective parameter approach and the mosaic approach, were tested in the mesoscale model against airborne observations of sensible and latent heat fluxes. The results show that the mosaic approach produces better results especially when small lakes are present in model grid-squares.
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| 9. |
- Westerberg, Ida, 1979-
(författare)
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Observational Uncertainties in Water-Resources Modelling in Central America : Methods for Uncertainty Estimation and Model Evaluation
- 2011
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Knowledge about spatial and temporal variability of hydrological processes is central for sustainable water-resources management, and such knowledge is created from observational data. Hydrologic models are necessary for prediction for time periods and areas lacking data, but are affected by observational uncertainties. Methods for estimating and accounting for such uncertainties in water-resources modelling are of high importance, especially in regions such as Central America. Observational uncertainties were addressed in three ways in this thesis; quality control, quantitative estimation and development of model-evaluation techniques that addressed unquantifiable uncertainties. A first step in any modelling study should be the quality control and concurrent analysis of the representativeness of the observational data. In the characterisation of the precipitation regime in the Choluteca River basin in Honduras, four different quality problems were identified and 22% of the daily data had to be rejected. The monitoring network was found to be insufficient for a comprehensive characterisation of the high spatiotemporal variability of the precipitation regime. Quantitative estimations of data uncertainties can be made when sufficient information is available. Discharge-data uncertainties were estimated with a fuzzy regression for time-variable rating curves and from official rating curves for 35 stations in Honduras. The uncertainties were largest for low flows, as a result of measurement uncertainties and natural variability. A method for calibration with flow-duration curves was developed which enabled calibration to the whole flow range, accounting for discharge uncertainty and calibration with non-overlapping time periods for model input and evaluation data. The method compared favourably to traditional calibration in a test using two models applied in basins with different runoff-generation processes. A post-hoc analysis made it possible to identify potential model-structure errors and periods of disinformative data. Flow-duration curves were regionalised and used for calibration of a Central-American water-balance model. The initial model uncertainty for the ungauged basins was reduced by 70%. Non-representative precipitation data were found to be the main obstacle to comprehensive regional water-resources modelling in Central America. These methods bridged several problems related to observational uncertainties in water-balance modelling. Estimates of prediction uncertainty are an important basis for all types of decisions related to water-resources management.
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| 10. |
- Westerberg, Ida, et al.
(författare)
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Precipitation data in a mountainous catchment in Honduras: quality assessment and spatiotemporal characteristics
- 2010
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Ingår i: Theoretical and Applied Climatology. - : Springer Nature. - 0177-798X .- 1434-4483. ; 101:3-4, s. 381-396
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- An accurate description of temporal and spatial precipitation variability in Central America is important for local farming, water supply and flood management. Data quality problems and lack of consistent precipitation data impede hydrometeorological analysis in the 7,500 km2 Choluteca River basin in central Honduras, encompassing the capital Tegucigalpa. We used precipitation data from 60 daily and 13 monthly stations in 1913–2006 from five local authorities and NOAA's Global Historical Climatology Network. Quality control routines were developed to tackle the specific data quality problems. The quality-controlled data were characterised spatially and temporally, and compared with regional and larger-scale studies. Two gapfilling methods for daily data and three interpolation methods for monthly and mean annual precipitation were compared. The coefficient-of-correlation-weighting method provided the best results for gap-filling and the universal kriging method for spatial interpolation. In-homogeneity in the time series was the main quality problem, and 22% of the daily precipitation data were too poor to be used. Spatial autocorrelation for monthly precipitation was low during the dry season, and correlation increased markedly when data were temporally aggregated from a daily time scale to 4–5 days. The analysis manifested the high spatial and temporal variability caused by the diverse precipitationgenerating mechanisms and the need for an improved monitoring network.
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