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- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(författare)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(författare)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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Ingår i: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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- Vandenbussche, B., et al.
(författare)
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The beta Pictoris disk imaged by Herschel PACS and SPIRE
- 2010
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 518:Article Number: L133
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We obtained Herschel PACS and SPIRE images of the thermal emission of the debris disk around the A5V star beta Pic. The disk is well resolved in the PACS filters at 70, 100, and 160 mu m. The surface brightness profiles between 70 and 160 mu m show no significant asymmetries along the disk, and are compatible with 90% of the emission between 70 and 160 mu m originating in a region closer than 200 AU to the star. Although only marginally resolving the debris disk, the maps obtained in the SPIRE 250-500 mu m filters provide full-disk photometry, completing the SED over a few octaves in wavelength that had been previously inaccessible. The small far-infrared spectral index (beta = 0.34) indicates that the grain size distribution in the inner disk (
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- Santana, Felipe A., et al.
(författare)
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Final Targeting Strategy for the SDSS-IV APOGEE-2S Survey
- 2021
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Ingår i: Astronomical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 1538-3881 .- 0004-6256. ; 162:6
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- APOGEE is a high-resolution (R similar to 22,000), near-infrared, multi-epoch, spectroscopic survey of the Milky Way. The second generation of the APOGEE project, APOGEE-2, includes an expansion of the survey to the Southern Hemisphere called APOGEE-2S. This expansion enabled APOGEE to perform a fully panoramic mapping of all of the main regions of the Milky Way; in particular, by operating in the H band, APOGEE is uniquely able to probe the dust-hidden inner regions of the Milky Way that are best accessed from the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we present the targeting strategy of APOGEE-2S, with special attention to documenting modifications to the original, previously published plan. The motivation for these changes is explained as well as an assessment of their effectiveness in achieving their intended scientific objective. In anticipation of this being the last paper detailing APOGEE targeting, we present an accounting of all such information complete through the end of the APOGEE-2S project; this includes several main survey programs dedicated to exploration of major stellar populations and regions of the Milky Way, as well as a full list of programs contributing to the APOGEE database through allocations of observing time by the Chilean National Time Allocation Committee and the Carnegie Institution for Science. This work was presented along with a companion article, Beaton et al. (2021), presenting the final target selection strategy adopted for APOGEE-2 in the Northern Hemisphere.
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| 7. |
- Sibthorpe, B., et al.
(författare)
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The Vega debris disc: A view from Herschel
- 2010
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 518:Article Number: L130
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present five band imaging of the Vega debris disc obtained using the Herschel Space Observatory. These data span a wavelength range of 70-500 mu m with full-width half-maximum angular resolutions of 5.6-36.9 ''. The disc is well resolved in all bands, with the ring structure visible at 70 and 160 mu m. Radial profiles of the disc surface brightness are produced, and a disc radius of 11 '' (similar to 85AU) is determined. The disc is seen to have a smooth structure thoughout the entire wavelength range, suggesting that the disc is in a steady state, rather than being an ephemeral structure caused by the recent collision of two large planetesimals.
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- Brandeker, Alexis, et al.
(författare)
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Herschel detects oxygen in the beta Pictoris debris disk
- 2016
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Ingår i: Astronomy and Astrophysics. - : EDP Sciences. - 0004-6361 .- 1432-0746. ; 591
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- The young star beta Pictoris is well known for its dusty debris disk produced through collisional grinding of planetesimals, kilometre-sized bodies in orbit around the star. In addition to dust, small amounts of gas are also known to orbit the star; this gas is likely the result of vaporisation of violently colliding dust grains. The disk is seen edge on and from previous absorption spectroscopy we know that the gas is very rich in carbon relative to other elements. The oxygen content has been more difficult to assess, however, with early estimates finding very little oxygen in the gas at a C/O ratio that is 20x higher than the cosmic value. A C/O ratio that high is difficult to explain and would have far-reaching consequences for planet formation. Here we report on observations by the far-infrared space telescope Herschel, using PACS, of emission lines from ionised carbon and neutral oxygen. The detected emission from C+ is consistent with that previously reported observed by the HIFI instrument on Herschel, while the emission from O is hard to explain without assuming a higher density region in the disk, perhaps in the shape of a clump or a dense torus required to sufficiently excite the O atoms. A possible scenario is that the C/O gas is produced by the same process responsible for the CO clump recently observed by the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array in the disk and that the redistribution of the gas takes longer than previously assumed. A more detailed estimate of the C/O ratio and the mass of O will have to await better constraints on the C/O gas spatial distribution.
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| 9. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(författare)
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Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
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Ingår i: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
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